Make myself look dumb hand of the day

[Bartholow]

Despite maybe looking a little dumb, I thought I had a lot of interesting decisions in this hand.

Site: PartyPoker
20/40 7 Card Stud -- Hand Converter

Third Street
Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____folds
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]_____calls_____calls
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]_____completes
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____calls
Seat 6: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]_____brings-in_____calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____calls_____calls
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]_____folds

Fourth Street
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]_____folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]_____raises
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]_____calls
Seat 6: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]_____folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]_____double bets_____calls

Fifth Street
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]_____bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]_____checks_____calls

Sixth Street
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx _____checks_____calls
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____bets
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]_____checks_____folds

River
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx _____bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]_____checks_____calls

Results
Seat 2: [ XX XX Th As ]
Seat 4: [ Ks Kc Jc 9c Tc 7h 7d ] [ two pairs, kings and sevens -- Ks,Kc,Jc,7h,7d ]
Hero: [ 3d Jd Qd 3h Td 5d 8d ] [ a flush, queen high -- Qd,Jd,Td,8d,5d ]

[beta1607]

Fold 3rd with a dead 3, dead J and two dead [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it is not worth calling a completion. I think you really have to fold 4th and I dont think it is a close decision. 5th and 6th I play the same and 7th I lead and call a raise.

I think your play on 3rd and 4th here is way too lose.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I thought I had already conceded that in my original post [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. What do you think after that?

[lstream]

Well you know he does not have the flush on sixth, so I would be inclined to bet out on 7'th or even check raise. When you check the river, you are telling him "I don't really have the flush", so his bet could mean a much weaker hand than the flush.

He may have backed into a better flush, and if so, it is not unreasonable to think he started with a premium pair that includes either Kc or Ac. I just don't think this is true often enough to not try and extract more value on the river. If he raises, then just call.

I agree with others who say to fold third and fourth.

[Bartholow]

You almost got my river thinking figured out. I just decided I WANTED him to bet the river so he couldn't raise me if he hit. I was certain he would do so. I guess I can see some value in hoping he'll raise a worse hand, but I think I can't reraise.

Maybe you are right about the checkraise, I just again didn't want to get (re)raised. His board is pretty scary.

[lstream]

Your line makes good sense, and it was an approach I considered. A bit more on why I think trying to extract more value makes sense:

He needs to have a four flush on sixth for you to beconcerned. This results in 5 dead clubs. I think there are 21 cards left in the deck - so he has an 8/21 chance of rivering a flush. He has to river the flush AND have the king or ace. Seems to me that the CR has solid EV.

On the other hand, a read of villain can invalidate a lot of math, and I was not in the hand.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I think I like the checkraise now, but it's close. If he won't call the checkraise with a hand worse than the flush, and does have the Ac or Kc, then it's pretty bad right?

[Andy B]

I think the call on third is OK. It's five ways, after all. Fourth is pretty hideous though. I would have folded for $20, let alone $80. And bet the damned river.

[Michael Emery]

I fold third myself, but calling isnt terrible. Now cold-calling $80 on fourth street here...... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] But I guess you already know that. Bet the river yourself. You dont want to give him the opportunity to check behind with anything. Its a big pot and hes likely to check behind with a lot of hands he'll pay off with.

Mike Emery

[Bartholow]

I felt pretty sure that with his scary board he would bet pretty much everything he could have.