Interesting read, anyone actually agree with me?

[Bartholow]

Very simple hand.

Party, either $20/$40 or $30/$60, I can't remember.

I open-raise AQo middle position. Only the BB calls, he's a 22/11/1.6 type, over about 100 hands.

Flop is J87 two-tone, I have none of that suit. Check, bet, call.

Turn is K of a third suit. He bets out, I raise.

I'll say for now that I put him on QT at first, after thinking I added AT. I'll go more into detail after some discussion.

[YoureToast]

This is so player dependent and a difficult decision. I fold this against most players, but your read is acceptable. I think its more likely he's got you beat here and doesn't want to give you a free card with this dangerous board.

[steveyz]

your read is fine, but a raise will not move him off his hand. Why not just call and call the river (unless you hit)? For the same price, you don't risk having to call a turn 3-bet with your gut-shot.

[Bartholow]

Don't you think choosing to bet out when a K hits would be a strange play for someone who has me beat, at least in terms of 1 pair type hands?

[Bartholow]

Another thought: if he DOES have 1 pair, will he ever fold?

[steveyz]

It would be somewhat strange, but I've seen it happen with players that have something like Jx and were waiting for a safe turn to check-raise. But now that the K shows up, they no longer feel comfortable with c/ring to just bet out instead.

But again, even if you are right more than 50% of the time in your read, I think calling is a better play.

[Bartholow]

Funny because in the actual hand I just called twice. Thinking about it afterwards I was leaning towards a raise. But maybe I did the right thing after all.

[steveyz]

Notice that if he has either QT or AT, he has no pair outs, only outs to a straight, which means that if he hits those outs, he's not folding.

In many cases, the benefit of raising the turn when you know your opponent is on a draw (that they will not fold) is that they may fold even if they pair on the river. Of course, another benefit is that they are putting in an extra bet while behind. However, in many cases, if you call the turn, your opponent will bluff at the river anyways so you aren't really getting an extra bet.

Obviously, if you knew 100% for certain you were ahead, raising would be the better play. But I'm assuming you couldn't see his cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Ryno]

This is a great play vs. someone with a low WSD%. You can get them to fold A8/A7, maybe even a Jack, where they were going to checkraise the turn but the K scared them so they figure "I'll bet and fold to a raise - that card should scare him too."

[Bartholow]

As I mentioned in another post, I actually just called down on both the turn and river. And given my read it was actually the better play I now agree.

Another possible read is that he DOES in fact have the pair, and got scared by the K. This can often be a bet and fold to a raise scenario, and in this case the raise is clearly much better.

I think overall the gain from the small chance that he folds a hand that is ahead outweighs the risk of a 3-bet on the turn, though it's probably close. Wouldn't be close if I didn't probably have to call that 3-bet because of my gutshot.

Anyway I thought it was interesting, thanks for the responses.