$33 - blind v blind 2nd hand

[schwza]

the question is will villain call 510 with a losing hand 69% of the time he'll call 350 (350/510 = 69%)? it needs to be a little more, because sometimes villain will throw in the last 350 with a loser.

my inclination is that the only time the extra 160 matters is if villain holds Ax, which is his most likely payoff hand. but i think a decent villain will not call either with a medicore Ax and a bad player will call both. there are certainly some who will balk at the extra chips, but i think 69%+ who call 350 also call 510.

hehehe, 69.

[ilya]

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This is one spot where I would raise to 200 and define my hand. Any special reason why you shouldn't think you're ahead?

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I think it's cheaper to let SB define your hand by calling and seeing how he reacts to the turn. He's probably not gonna make another big bet if he has something like TT. If he is weak on the turn I think you can be pretty sure you're good. Then you can either take it down or check behind and make some money when he calls you on the river.

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so do you fold if villain makes a normal bet?

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Against many villains, yes. if i think he's very LAG i will call him down. but in that scenario calling flop is still better as i give him a chance to fire more bluff barrels.

[schwza]

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This is one spot where I would raise to 200 and define my hand. Any special reason why you shouldn't think you're ahead?

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I think it's cheaper to let SB define your hand by calling and seeing how he reacts to the turn. He's probably not gonna make another big bet if he has something like TT. If he is weak on the turn I think you can be pretty sure you're good. Then you can either take it down or check behind and make some money when he calls you on the river.

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so do you fold if villain makes a normal bet?

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Against many villains, yes. if i think he's very LAG i will call him down. but in that scenario calling flop is still better as i give him a chance to fire more bluff barrels.

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in this hand, it's very early, so no reads. do you think folding the turn is too weak? i don't see any reason that villain is more likely to have a good ace than a bad one, and there are 3 bigger ones against 9 smaller ones, not to mention the other junk he could be holding.

[ilya]

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This is one spot where I would raise to 200 and define my hand. Any special reason why you shouldn't think you're ahead?

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I think it's cheaper to let SB define your hand by calling and seeing how he reacts to the turn. He's probably not gonna make another big bet if he has something like TT. If he is weak on the turn I think you can be pretty sure you're good. Then you can either take it down or check behind and make some money when he calls you on the river.

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so do you fold if villain makes a normal bet?

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Against many villains, yes. if i think he's very LAG i will call him down. but in that scenario calling flop is still better as i give him a chance to fire more bluff barrels.

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in this hand, it's very early, so no reads. do you think folding the turn is too weak? i don't see any reason that villain is more likely to have a good ace than a bad one, and there are 3 bigger ones against 9 smaller ones, not to mention the other junk he could be holding.

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You call preflop and call pot on the Ace-high flop. You think one of the 7 (not 9) weaker Aces is gonna be confident enough to make a big bet on the turn? Furthermore, if you call a big bet on the turn, what do you do when he makes another big bet on the river?

[schwza]

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You call preflop and call pot on the Ace-high flop. You think one of the 7 (not 9) weaker Aces is gonna be confident enough to make a big bet on the turn?

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good point on the fewer Ax hands we beat (and i count 8 before considering two pair hands, so usually only 5 after the turn). that makes me happier about folding the turn.

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Furthermore, if you call a big bet on the turn, what do you do when he makes another big bet on the river?

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i don't know. but it's an argument for raising the flop so you don't get in a spot where you're likely to make a mistake.

[The Yugoslavian]

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We've all seen that guy: He probably notices that we fold alot to PF raises, so he keeps this crap up the entire game.

I'm of the 'slap him on the nose with the newspaper and make him whimper into the corner' crowd when I get a chance against the SB.

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Wouldn't you rather slap him around by getting him to bluff off most or all of his stack to you?

I like calling on the flop. Jeckyl: The reason you are 'calling for information' is that on the turn your opponent will do something...whatever that something is gives you information. In fact, it gives you more information than if you just pop the flop up to t200. Now the pot is getting very large and it will be difficult to interpret future bets and get the most value out of the villian.

Bullies are a good thing when you have position on them.

Yugoslav

[Raiser]

Hey schwza.

One of the main reasons I don't like raising the flop is...

say you raise to 200ish and villain pushes. Now you are looking at ~1050 pot and have to call ~450 more. Pretty good odds and a pretty decent hand. That's a tough decision for me and one that I think you can make a mistake on pretty easily, and in this case the mistake would be very costly.

Calling the flop allows you to gather information cheaper. Then you can fold the turn to a "normal" bet and not make a huge mistake like raising the flop can lead to.

Does that make any sense?

[The Yugoslavian]

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SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t650 (All-In)</font>,


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I normally make a value bet in the 150 range, which seems to get insta-called regularly. In lieu of this, I always wonder had I pushed (apparent steal attempt) would I get called just the same and I'm missing out on more chips.

I love when the turn hits me like that. Makes all your decisions much easier.

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See Lorinda's post. She has a nice post about pushing the river and getting called.

Lorinda's post

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Didn't Lori way overpush the pot on the river though? Those fishy types of things can work well against the right type of opponent. In the case in this thread pushing the river isn't weird at all b/c a decent sized pot has already been built. Plus the pot is big enough to throw !~350 chips in and expect weak hands to make a crying call still giving you great value for your hand. In Lori's example it's either bet like ~100 or so or go allin for a big score. The big score only has to work 1 in like 8 type or so for it to work. While here it has to work every other time at roping in weak hands.

Yugoslav

[schwza]

nice post yugo.

villain folded.