Unusual AKo hand, 30-60

[Josh W]

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n/m

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Aw, c'mon, you know I don't like giving results...

But I will...

I folded.

UTG won.

I woulda beat both HJ and button.

Josh

[Josh W]

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Look at your hand one more time--you have top pair, top kicker in a very large pot facing a single bet that comes originally from a player you might have beat.

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How about this.

Look at their hands.

Yeah, I might have UTG beat, but what percent of the time? have you read the thread? Have you seen where, in nearly (if not every) every single post I've said he may be bluffing. I've already accounted for that. And, as I've shown, accounting for it and all, means I should fold.

Thanks for verifying my point.

Josh

[Josh W]

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This looks like one of those hands where the EV either way is measured in pennies and i'm curious as to what happened.

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Believe it or not, this has become my main point here. It's really very close. I've never once (and, this isn't directed at you, but to the thread in general) said it's a clear fold. But many people have said it's a clear call.

THE ONLY WAY IT CAN BE A CLEAR CALL IS IF YOU DON'T EVEN TRY TO READ HANDS. Period.

If you try to read hands, you'll see that it's very close. If you think UTG bluffs under about 10% of the time, it's a fold. If you think he bluffs 10 or more %, it's a call.

In any case, it's close.

Not often on a forum like this can somebody be de facto wrong. However, those who say it's a disasterous fold or a horrible fold or a clear call are just plain wrong.

Likewise, if anybody said it's an obvious muck, they too would be wrong.

Josh

Plenty of folks will bet the ace here without being able to beat an ace holding. They hold an overpair (or even an underpair) and panic-bet when the ace hits, they hold something/anything and think that a bet with the scare card will chase off the hands that will beat them (i.e. your ace), or even because he is a 38/14 donkey who thinks, "HOT DARN MY A5 THAT I RAISED WITH PREFLOP CAME IN! AND THEY SAY THAT POKER IS HARD! WOOOOOODOGGY! BET!"

Other times, he'll have AJ, AQ, or AK, and be making a straight-forward value bet.

Of course, he might also have made his two pair, a set, or the straight, but I personally have a hard time thinking that he has these later hands more than 92% of the time in this situation, with this board, with this play.

The two overcalls are even less of a worry, as Josh and others noted. If they could beat you, they would have likely bet the turn, or at least raised this river. Really, their main contribution to the problem at hand was to raise the pot odds for your call.

Accordingly, I think you have to credit UTG with being a far better player than Josh otherwise described him to make this situation anything other than a call.

I am looking forward to see how it actually went down. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Edit: I see that you posted some of the results while I was composing my thoughts, but that doesn't change my analysis. Like ALL1N, I would like to know what UTG had. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]]

[ALL1N]

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n/m

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Aw, c'mon, you know I don't like giving results...

But I will...

I folded.

UTG won.

I woulda beat both HJ and button.

Josh

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What did UTG have?

[imported_azalin]

If i was UTG and played the hand the way i had until the river and i am holding a monster i am check raising this river . Am i the only one?

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If i was UTG and played the hand the way i had until the river and i am holding a monster i am check raising this river . Am i the only one?

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I would like a check-raise-my-monster better if I (as UTG) had bet the turn. There is too much chance of it being checked through considering the passive play on the turn, making a bet hoping for calls or a raise the most likely to get any results.

[elindauer]

Hi Josh,

It's pretty impressive that it even occurred to you to consider folding. Excellent job thinking about what your opponents held, and considering that your otherwise quite strong hand might actually be second best. For that, kudos.

However, I think you misjudged this one. Both the bettor and the first caller can be ace-free, so there are plenty of hands that you beat. Make the call and take it down.

my 2 cents.
eric

[Josh W]

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However, I think you misjudged this one. Both the bettor and the first caller can be ace-free, so there are plenty of hands that you beat.

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Two sentences, and yet, they contradict each other.

As I've said all throughout, yeah, I may be winning. But, in order to be winning, UTG needs to be bluffing (essentially...I did the math somewhere in this quagmire and show that maybe a 1% shot of HJ not having an ace, then UTG could have AXh....so maybe 0.3% chance of hitting that parlay).

So I'm not sure how I misjudged it. Are you saying that in your experience that when all draws miss on the river, UTGs bet into fields of 4 10% of the time?

Josh

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Look at your hand one more time--you have top pair, top kicker in a very large pot facing a single bet that comes originally from a player you might have beat.

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How about this.

Look at their hands.

Yeah, I might have UTG beat, but what percent of the time? have you read the thread? Have you seen where, in nearly (if not every) every single post I've said he may be bluffing. I've already accounted for that. And, as I've shown, accounting for it and all, means I should fold.

Thanks for verifying my point.

Josh

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I just did the math. It indicates a clear call given their hand ranges. It shows how dreadful your fold really is. Do it yourself if you want to see the results, because you've been such a total dick on this thread I'm not writing it out for you.

Don't believe me? Don't care. Play it however you like.

Way to make a big fold in a spot you shouldn't have and then have your "genius" confirmed by the results though.