JTs against a loose passive

Had only been playing with UTG for about 15 hands. His VPIP was something like 75, and PFR was around 17%. Other than that I had no reads.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero?????</font>

Final Pot: 6 BB

[istewart]

Check the flop. Check/fold the river.

[btspider]

i want to say check-fold the way the hand played out given this opponent, but I'm rusty.

[ QUOTE ]
Check the flop. Check/fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Str8Fish]

I disagree with the person who said check the flop. He has 8 outs to a straight and a backdoor flush draw (1.5 outs), plus 2 more outs for Jacks. I would give only partial credit to 10's, maybe 1 out... so ~12.5 outs is pretty good. I would raise for value here. Even a loose passive would raise with 3 K's, wouldn't they? I would put the loose passive on Ax, Qx, or Jx after the turn. After the river, I don't know if a loose passive would attempt a bluff bet if checked to, so I might check, call.

[Mathieu]

* grunch *

I think the flop bet is reasonable. It may get value from a lone A or a weaker Tx looking to make a straight.

I am not sure how to play that turn without a good read. If he was LOOSE but aggressive or very bluff happy, I would check call as I would expect him to bet this with A high.

If he is really loose passive, I would be tempted to bet out to collect money when he has Ax. If we get raised, I think we should fold this getting 6-1. Although if he is passive enough that he will only bet a K or better in this spot, I would just check/fold, as I don't expect to be ahead often enough to warrant betting for value.

Edit: I check/fold the river as I think it is much less likely for him to call with A high there, I don't want to bet his hand for him, and I am not worried about being bluffed out.

I think this one is pretty hard, so I have a question. Because hero has a lot of outs, he really wants to see both the turn and the river.

If he checks this high-card flop, somebody will probably bet. So he'll probably have to call one SB to see the turn. After hero's flop call, the flop bettor will probably bet the turn, and hero will have to call 1 BB, for a total of 1.5 BB to see the river.

So why not check the flop with the intent of raising if it's 1 bet back? It is likely that the bettor will call one bet back. Then check the turn, gambling that the flop bettor will also check for fear of being checkraised. If it works, you get to see the river for 1 BB. If the turn is a blank and the flop bettor bets again, you can be much more sure you're beat and fold.

[Mathieu]

Free card plays are much harder to pull off out of position.

When you are in position your opponnent can check for two reasons:

1) he fears a raise by a better hand
2) he wants to check raise

When first to act (2) obviously isn't valid anymore, and (1) is less likely after you've showed weakness.

[TennesseeKid]

grunch

The way you played it, I think we are almost forced to bet the river and fold to a RR. You have bet out every street so you are representing trip K's. If he has trip K's WK, he will most likely just call but won't fold anyway. If we check now it looks very bluffish, abject, and prone to an attack.

[Aaron_]

I hate checking on the river because I really want to see a showdown against an opponent like this. I wish you had some post flop reads to help. I really don't see getting raised on the river -- he would have told you he had a K by now.

I'm afraid that if you check, you're going to be folding to a bluff from a loose opponent with a missed drawing hand *enough of the time* (like an A, T, 9, or wired pair he's calling down with no matter what). I try not to give opponents with PF stats like he has much credit for a hand (even if he's passive post flop, and especially if he's aggressive post flop -- his PF stats probably indicate the latter).

Whatch you guys think?