Sklansky and the System

[kamelion44]

In response to Whiskeytown, I understand what you're saying. But a few things. It seems that Skylansky, in the TPFAP book, implies that the System isn't to be used just by dummies who have no shot otherwise. And just for the record, I feel that I can make it on my own without such a system, I've in fact made quite a few final tables. But it was such an intriguing idea, and worked so well, that I wanted the feedback. Anyhow, in the book, he says, "if you think you play well, then go ahead and play normally (in the part about blind play w/ the System). (But if you lose a lot of chips on those hands you will always wonder what would have happend if you didn't)." This seems to suggest that the System could be used by solid players. Also, as a rational poker player, why wouldn't I want to explore something that gives me a real edge on even the best tournament pros? "Upon reflection I realized that he had hit upon a strategy which gave him almost as good a chance as the best players. In fact, if those players did not propoerly adjust to it, he might even have an edge over them." That sounds awesome. He states that, "there is no question that this new System could be improved upon." So a system that gives a total amateur a chance against world-class competition could be refined further...that's even more intriguing. And to note, I actually did bust out when I wasn't playing the system finally at the final table. Just like the casino owner in the book. While this isn't conclusive, it does make me wonder if the viability of the System is greater than what you suggest if played until the end. In fact your response is exactly the type of mentality that the System is designed to exploit, since you're unwilling to push-in when you don't have the clear best of it. And you're right, why should you? But something that's a weapon against a field of 500 good players like yourself is still pretty interesting...

[CrisBrown]

Hi kamelion,

The problem with the Sklansky "System" (which he admits is more an intellectual exercise than advice for play) is that it puts your tournament life in the hands of the dealer far too often to be profitable. The average "System" hand is no more than a 2:1 favorite to the average hand that would call an all-in bet. The short end of those odds adds up a lot faster than you'd expect, and you'd have to either get such a huge stack early that you're rarely covered by a caller, or dodge a lot of raindrops.

Consider that if you're called and covered just three times in a tournament, at 2:1 each time, your odds of winning all three of those pots are less than 1:3 (8:27). And it gets much worse, very fast. And this assumes that you ARE a 2:1 favorite each time you're called and covered. If you find yourself in a coin-flip (underpair vs. overcards) ... or run into an overpair to your pocket pair ... it gets really ugly ... really fast.

Having to survive so many all-in showdowns, with no chance to make decisions after the flop, is the huge and deadly weakness in the "System." It was created as an exercise, and not as a strategy to be employed by a skilled player.

Cris

[lostinthought]

Sorry to break it to you Kamelion,
you got lucky using the system... take your $700, and keep on reinvesting it in multi tables and keep on using 'the system' and see where the money goes..
learn some poker skills, or use the ones you have! 'the system' article is a thought experiment that was tried on an amateur who had $10,000 sitting around.. do you?

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[crockpot]

you're missing the most important point of the essay, which can be illustrated by this example:

you're in the final event at the world series of poker, and all three players here have the same stack size. player A is you, B is phil hellmuth, and C is a typical online fish.

you are dealt A-4 suited, hellmuth is dealt K-K, and the fish is dealt 2-2. playing the system, you move all in preflop, and accidentally expose your cards to hellmuth. what will happen?

hellmuth will fold. he knows that he is a 2:1 favorite, but that is not enough of an edge to risk all of his chips in this event. he is playing good tournament principles: win pots without showing down hands, build your stack slowly by bluffing, only risk your chips when you have a huge edge. the only hand he would call you with here is A-A.

what will the fish do? call, of course. "a pair is a favorite over two overcards," says he. it doesn't even enter his mind that you could easily have a bigger pair in the hole.

in other words, if you're playing the system against people who don't know the concepts of good tournament play, the system will not work, because the hands they call your all-in with will be ahead of yours on average. against a table of good players who don't want to risk it all without a big edge, however, it can be a powerful tool.

[ironman007]

good point, but don't try to convince anyone that Phil folds K K here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[CCass]

IMO Phil would fold with KK in this scenario if he knew your cards, because he would be convinced that he could outplay you later, and not be worried about "outdrawing" you on this particular hand. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO Phil would fold with KK in this scenario if he knew your cards, because he would be convinced that he could outplay you later, and not be worried about "outdrawing" you on this particular hand. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

He'd only fold KK here if his ego was deluding himself into thinking his edge over the field was better than it is. 2-1 favourite to double through. Not even near to being a close gamble.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Its never good to get all your chips in the middle unless you have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not really true, and not a good phrase to play by.


[ QUOTE ]
Even QQ is basically a coin flip to AK, so how many times can you flip the coin before you lose? And remember just ONE all-in loss all-in means you get up from the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

We'd better build a bigger stack than everyone else then.

And is QQ a coin flip against JJ? Plenty of tournament situations exist where you do not know it's a coinflip until the cards are actually turned over. Before that point, you may just as likely be a big favourite.

[crockpot]

you're actually considering the possibility that hellmuth isn't deluded by his ego when he plays in a big tournament?

sure, this isn't a close gamble. but if i considered myself one of the ten best players in the final event, i wouldn't call either. think about it this way: you make this call twice, and you've been eliminated 55% of the time. whether your goal is to win the tournament or just maximize your prize money EV, this is not a call you want to be making as one of the best players.

[spoody]

Moronic, Maybe
Very difficult to play against, Yes

Being put all in, especially preflop, really sux. Anyone who has played in a couple of sit and gos on party (or wherever) have run into the All-inners. It can be very difficult to try to play a normal game, hit a pair on the flop, raise and then be put all in. Or, have 88 in the cutoff, open with a 3x raise, and then the button, SB or BB moves all in...now what? Sure they usually get called by someone with Axs, KQ, TT, almost anything, but as a better player its pretty hard to deal with if you dont have AA or possibly KK and AK if you are in the mood for a race.

The example we have all seen, seems like almost every tourney, is when someone loses half of their stack and now they are the small stack, and they are on tilt and start moving in every hand. What usually happens? they rebuild their stack because no one calls.

I try not to play that way, but if my stack gets short and the table has like 6 or less people, I will move all in on almost anything. The money is close enough that people tighten up and wimp out. With the huge blinds in the sit and gos, it usually only takes 2 or 3 times to be par again.

In some ways I respect the play of all inners, just because of the fact that it causes me so much trouble. But it is absolutely not a way to win a tourney, but as a smaller stack (not too small), with big blinds, it can work wonders.

Spoody