Sites Rigged?

[kurto]

I'm just curious if anyone knows if there have been any serious investigations into whether or not the various poker sites are manipulating the deals?

I vaguely remember reading somewhere that some sites were found or were alleged to deal more high action hands to insure more betting.

I had always been skeptical that this would be the case until I started noticing a phenomenon on Pokerstars. On average, every session I play (I usually play a 3-4 hour session on 2-3 tables at a time) I see quads 2-4 times a night. (I don't personally get them that often... though I did get quads twice in one night last week).

I'm not as familiar with the percentages of certain hands appearing as some, so it is possible that, at 3 tables of 9 players playing for 3-4 hours, you should see quads come up every 'so many' hours. But my instinct tells me I'm witnessing quads more times then I should.

Any thoughts?

[BradleyT]

Yes they're all rigged.

Yahoo games offers play money texas hold em - you should go play that.

[JinX11]

Think about it - why would sites want to rig??? They are making money hand-over-fist already with the rake. If it got out that sites were rigged, the entire industry would go bust, dude. You think the sites are willing to take that risk???

Whatever you are noticing on your tables is a function of a short number of hands witnessed and short-term memory. There are enough people playing large numbers of hands online that if there was something fishy, it would have long since fallen out.

Let this conspiracy theory go. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[lorinda]

Any thoughts?

<bites tongue>

Yes, basically it's been discussed a LOT of times and the major sites are all fair.

Lori

[kurto]

"Think about it - why would sites want to rig??? They are making money hand-over-fist already with the rake. If it got out that sites were rigged, the entire industry would go bust, dude. You think the sites are willing to take that risk???"

Don't get me wrong, I'm usually the person arguing against others who are saying a site is rigged. And I understand that if it ever got out they were rigging it, it would jeopardize the industry. That's not to say that there couldn't be a motive.

If I can hypothesize for a sec: Let's say that one did manipulate the deal so that there were more flops with potential flush, straight and/or full house draws. You would be likely to have more players betting heavily into each pot which would increase the rake.

Again... I'm not saying this is the case. Merely suggesting why someone might want to do it.

"Whatever you are noticing on your tables is a function of a short number of hands witnessed and short-term memory." Certainly possible. Though I've been watching for it because I now find it odd if I DON'T see quads at least once a night.

I figured someone more versed in poker statistics then I would say something to the effect that with 27 people playing and an average of X hands per hour played, one should expect to see quads come up every 2 hours... or something like that.

Thanks for your comments.

[radek2166]

xxxx: my roomate won $200 on party poker
yesterday
xxxx: party puker is rigged
xxxx: thats what he always says
xxxxx: I swear they have bots playing for the site
xxxx; i am not a big fan of party
xxxx: he claims he figured out when it trys to
screw you
)
xxxx: so he folds good hands all the time

[GrannyMae]

I figured someone more versed in poker statistics then I would say something to the effect that with 27 people playing and an average of X hands per hour played, one should expect to see quads come up every 2 hours... or something like that.

buy pokertracker. many people have posted actual results versus expected results with very large samples and everything was on the square.

[lorinda]

one example

The poster is a respected poster (Thwang99) here
Lori

[adamstewart]

Click Here:

This link never gets old

[GrannyMae]

i knew he had posted this here, but also knew it was archived. i never saw this thread at rgp. good find.

i'm going to reprint the top post here for those that don't bother clicking your link. we can reference this post next time it comes up.

<font color="green">From: Tony H (tony@thsoftware.com)
Subject: Results of flop analysis over Paradise Poker hands
View: Complete Thread (21 articles)
Original Format
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.poker
Date: 2002-01-23 10:11:07 PST

Hi all,

I've just completed a starting cards, flop, and board analysis over 37,867
hands I've played at low limits on Paradise Poker. There may be errors in
the calculations here, but I've tried to make it as accurate as possible. If
someone could check the "expected" numbers I've posted, that would be great.
This took a lot of work to finish, and it's been something I've been working
on over the past 1-2 weeks! Hope this is helpful. Here are the results
(warning, lengthy post):

STARTING CARD ANALYSIS:
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867

All suited starters dealt: 8982 (23.72%)
All suited starters expected: 8910 (23.5%)

All connected starters dealt: 5980 (15.79%)
All connected starters expected: 5940 (15.7%)

Suited connector starters dealt: 1486 (3.92%)
Suited connector starters expected: 1485 (3.92%)

Paired starters dealt: 2264 (5.979%)
Paired starters expected: 2227 (5.88%)

AKo dealt: 363 (0.959%)
AKo expected: 343 (0.905%)

AKs dealt: 98 (0.259%)
AKo expected: 114 (0.302%)

Any AK dealt: 461 (1.217%)
Any AK expected:457 (1.21%)

A's dealt: 157 (0.415%)
K's dealt: 140 (0.370%)
Q's dealt: 184 (0.486%)
J's dealt: 168 (0.444%)
T's dealt: 183 (0.483%)
9's dealt: 167 (0.441%)
8's dealt: 185 (0.489%)
7's dealt: 182 (0.481%)
6's dealt: 192 (0.507%)
5's dealt: 178 (0.470%)
4's dealt: 186 (0.491%)
3's dealt: 162 (0.428%)
2's dealt: 180 (0.475%)
Each pair expected: 171 (0.452%)

FLOP ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt are used.
Hands where no flop was dealt are skipped.)

Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 35691 (94.25%)

When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 154 (34.45%)

expected: 145 (32.4%)

USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 8546 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush:3593 (42.04%) expected: 3554 (41.6%)
4 flush:922 (10.79%) expected: 935 (10.9%)
5 flush:70 (0.82%) expected: 72 (0.842%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:293 (3.43%) expected: 272 (3.18%)
2 flush:4698 (54.97%) expected: 4710 (55.1%)
3 flush:463 (5.42%) expected: 446 (05.22%)
any pair:1470 (17.20%) expected: 1447 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:4453 (52.1%) expected: 4497 (52.6%)
Pair: 3503 (41.0%) expected: 3453 (40.4%)
Two pair:373 (4.36%) expected: 345 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:107 (1.25%) expected: 134 (1.57%)
Straight:32 (0.37%) expected: 35 (0.412%)
Flush: 70 (0.82%) expected: 71 (0.835%)
Full house:7 (0.082%) expected: 8 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 1 (0.012%)expected: 1 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 1 (0.00589%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)

USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 2196 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:

Underpair (to flop): 523 (23.82%) expected: 515 (23.5%)

Overpair (to flop): 496 (22.59%) expected: 515 (23.5%)

Set:238 (10.84%)

expected: 253 (11.51%)

Quads: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:81 (3.69%) expected: 70 (3.18%)
2 flush:1198 (54.55%) expected: 1209 (55.0%)
3 flush:120 (5.46%) expected: 113 (5.16%)
any pair:376 (17.12%) expected: 376 (17.1%)
Hand user flops:
High card:0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 1584 (72.1%) expected: 1578 (71.8%)
Two pair:363 (16.53%) expected: 355 (16.2%)
3 of a kind:230 (10.47%)expected: 237 (10.8%)
Straight:0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:14 (0.638%) expected: 22 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)

USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 2264 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended:219 (9.67%) expected: 194 (8.55%)
Double belly:16 (0.71%) expected: 12 (0.531%)
Straight:38 (1.68%) expected: 29 (1.26%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:77 (3.40%) expected: 71 (3.15%)
2 flush:1224 (54.06%) expected: 1246 (55.0%)
3 flush:132 (5.83%) expected: 117 (5.16%)
any pair:423 (18.68%) expected: 383 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:1143 (50.5%) expected: 1192 (52.6%)
Pair: 933 (41.2%) expected: 915 (40.4%)
Two pair:106 (4.68%) expected: 91 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:38 (1.68%) expected: 36 (1.57%)
Straight:39 (1.72%) expected: 28 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:5 (0.221%) expected: 2 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)

ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:1145 (3.21%) expected: 1137 (3.19%)
2 flush:19715 (55.24%) expected: 19651 (55.1%)
3 flush:1881 (5.27%) expected: 1848 (5.18%)
any pair:6182 (17.32%) expected: 6046 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:17810 (49.9%) expected: 17888 (50.1%)
Pair: 15068 (42.2%) expected: 15082 (42.3%)
Two pair:1786 (5.00%) expected: 1697 (4.75%)
3 of a kind:750 (2.10%) expected: 754 (2.11%)
Straight:146 (0.41%) expected: 140 (0.392%)
Flush: 70 (0.20%) expected: 70 (0.197%)
Full house:54 (0.151%) expected: 51 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 7 (0.020%)expected: 9 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00139%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)

FIVE CARD BOARD ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a river was dealt are used.
Hands where no river was dealt are skipped. This will bias the
data to include only times where a showdown was seen.)

Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867

Total final boards seen when you were dealt cards: 26216

USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 6293 times):
Four flushes flopped: 729 (11.58%)
expected: 689 (10.9%)
When flop four flush, got flush:251 (34.43%)
expected: 255 (35.0%)
Hand user has at river:
High card:1145 (18.2%) expected: 1097 (17.4%)
Pair: 2673 (42.5%) expected: 2683 (42.6%)
Two pair:1350 (21.45%) expected: 1391 (22.1%)
3 of a kind:251 (3.99%) expected: 273 (4.33%)
Straight:318 (5.05%) expected: 287 (4.56%)
Flush: 411 (6.53%) expected: 410 (6.51%)
Full house:131 (2.082%) expected: 140 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 10 (0.159%)expected: 8 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.064%)expected: 4 (0.0663%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00781%)

USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 1685 times):
A set flopped: 197 (11.69%)
expected: 190 (11.3%)
When flop set, got boat or quads:75 (38.07%)
expected: 66 (33.4%)
Hand user rivers:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 609 (36.1%) expected: 598 (35.5%)
Two pair:654 (38.81%) expected: 666 (39.5%)
3 of a kind:201 (11.93%)expected: 198 (11.7%)
Straight:33 (1.96%) expected: 32 (1.90%)
Flush: 44 (2.61%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:130 (7.715%) expected: 144 (8.54%)
Four of a kind: 14 (0.831%)expected: 14 (0.842%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0160%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00182%)

USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 1678 times):
Flopped open ended: 167 (9.95%)
expected: 144 (8.55%)
When open ended, got straight: 47 (28.14%)
expected: 51 (30.7%)
Hand user rivers:
High card:281 (16.7%) expected: 289 (17.2%)
Pair: 749 (44.6%) expected: 717 (42.7%)
Two pair:361 (21.51%) expected: 374 (22.3%)
3 of a kind:65 (3.87%) expected: 73 (4.35%)
Straight:153 (9.12%) expected: 153 (9.12%)
Flush: 31 (1.85%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:33 (1.967%) expected: 37 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.298%)expected: 2 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0209%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00110%)

ALL RIVERS SEEN BY THE USER:
Hand user rivers:
High card:4686 (17.9%) expected: 4565 (17.4%)
Pair: 11522 (44.0%) expected: 11489 (43.8%)
Two pair:6039 (23.04%) expected: 6160 (23.5%)
3 of a kind:1198 (4.57%)expected: 1266 (4.83%)
Straight:1237 (4.72%) expected: 1211 (4.62%)
Flush: 806 (3.07%) expected: 793 (3.03%)
Full house:675 (2.575%) expected: 681 (2.60%)
Four of a kind: 48 (0.183%)expected: 44 (0.168%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.015%)expected: 7 (0.0279%)
Royal flush:1 (0.004%) expected: 1 (0.00323%)

- Tony

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