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  #1  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:55 AM
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Default $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+2 (t15452)
MP1 (t32332)
MP2 (t12325)
MP3 (t13139)
CO (t38881)
Button (t25061)
SB (t20000)
Hero (t17199)
UTG (t5916)
UTG+1 (t32302)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t800, 2 folds, MP2 calls t800, MP3 calls t800, 1 fold, Button calls t800, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t4800) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)</font>
SB checks.
Hero checks.
UTG+1 is all-In [31502]
MP2 folds.
MP3 folds.
Button folds.
SB folds.
Hero is all-In [16399]

Thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 12-02-2005, 02:56 AM
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Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

I fold this, 2nd pair with flush draw is too risky at this point in the game.. At least for me.
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  #3  
Old 12-02-2005, 03:00 AM
Firefly Firefly is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 73
Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

Looks standard to me.
You are usually about 50% or better to win this hand unless he has QQ.
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  #4  
Old 12-02-2005, 03:11 AM
reecelights reecelights is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Bristol, PA
Posts: 87
Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

Could have:
-AA, KK: limp/reraise plan didn't work and he's making up for it trying to catch someone who hit the Q.
-AQ: maybe one club, probably not, but trying to protect TPTK
-AcJc: you're ahead, but he has 13 outs on you making you a very slight favorite

The only thing you are ahead of is the draw, and it's a very slight edge.

If you are behind you might have 13 outs yourself, making you a slight dog. Your getting about 5:4 on your money (I think, it's late) so it's a borderline pot odds call, too.

You have 20 BB, and barring any previously seen semi-bluff push attempts on his part, I think you fold and wait for a better spot.

It's an interesting hand, but with 20BB and a gross overbet of the pot which to me reads as defending a made hand, think you are in trouble, and should fold.
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  #5  
Old 12-02-2005, 03:21 AM
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Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

I'm also thinkin you're about 50% maybe a little higher to win this pot...but basically im guessing it's a coinflip situation...so i mean if u want to take that chance at this point then do it...but i dunno...i'd probably try to find a place where i thought i had a better shot than a coinflip for all my chips this early
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  #6  
Old 12-02-2005, 04:13 AM
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Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

There are 70/1000 entrants left, so it really isn't "early". Since when does someone all-in overbet w/ a pair of queens or better here? I felt that he was on a draw, or at most, he had one pair. KJ, 89, 9J, two clubs were all possible combos. If he any draw, then I was ahead, since I had the 10c (except for 9cJc, KcJc, and AcJc). I'm not going to crunch out the numbers, but I figured I was pushing better than a 55/45 edge here to become chip leader in this tourney, in which case, I would probably final table.
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  #7  
Old 12-02-2005, 12:12 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: $33 MTT, Overbet by Big stack. Pair+flush draw

i would probably throw up and call. it's hard to know what the hell he has, but as long as it's not a bizarrely played set, you're going to be in fine/great shape.
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