Flush Draw Backs Into Set

ninjaunderwear · #1 10-19-2005, 02:25 PM

SB is loose-passive at 50.0/1.00/0.69 after 100 hands. The one hand I did see him raise was [ Kd, 9d ] UTG+1 after UTG limped, so maybe not so great a grasp on the game.
CO is also loose, but a bit more aggressive at 49.4 / 6.49 / 1.72 after 72 hands.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, 1 folds.

Flop: (9.00 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, SB raises, Hero calls, CO calls.

River: (12.00 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

After SB check-raise on the turn when the 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits, I'm not too thrilled about hitting a set on the river. I don't think I will get an overcall from CO as he probably missed his draw.

With 13BB up for grabs, folding is out of the question. Am I ahead here enough to raise? What range of hands do you put SB on?

POKhER · #2 10-19-2005, 02:30 PM

C/c flop,
C/c turn,
call river and cry.

numeri · #3 10-19-2005, 02:37 PM

I just call this river. The turn C/R looks scary enough to mean the other 4, though it could certainly be other hands. I'm a bit curious about pre-flop, though. I'll only raise this if I think CO and Button will fold - I don't want people yet to act with my weak A and flush draw.

TripleH68 · #4 10-19-2005, 02:38 PM

You have trips, not a set.

The only reasonable hands that beat you are 55,K4,Q4,54. An overcall from CO seems unlikely, easy river raise. Heck, CO may call anyway.
Surely noone is putting you on a 4 or KK or QQ.

I would consider checking the turn.

RandBriscoe · #5 10-19-2005, 02:40 PM

Betting the flop is fine. Check-call the turn. I don't raise the river. SB raised the turn 4, so pretty decent chance the river filled him up. Let CO overcall with his shite King.

FWIW, I raise pf too.

cold_cash · #6 10-19-2005, 02:41 PM

I like the flop.

I would check/call the turn. It's unlikely your 4's are good and I doubt you're going to get both opponents to fold anywhere near often enough.

I would raise the river.

SoftcoreRevolt · #7 10-19-2005, 02:46 PM

Check the turn, your equity edge isn't big enough here, and raise the river. That check raise is scary since it will be a slowplayed set a good deal of the time which makes a boat on the river, but your trips will be good here more than 55% of the time.

Koss · #8 10-19-2005, 02:50 PM

KQ is a common cold calling hand that fits the bill here. 3-bet.

TripleH68 · #9 10-19-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That check raise is scary since it will be a slowplayed set a good deal of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't we come close to ruling out KK/QQ here, which leaves only 55/44?

car ramrod · #10 10-19-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flop.

I would check/call the turn. It's unlikely your 4's are good and I doubt you're going to get both opponents to fold anywhere near often enough.

I would raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

edit: you have trips, not a set [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]