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#1
10-14-2005, 06:37 PM
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Blind steal how would you have played it post flop?
Party 2/4 full. BB villian is TAG over a large sample.
Pre flop: folds to me in CO i raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] folds to BB who calls. Flop(2 players 4.5sb): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] BB bets and i call. Turn(2 players 3bb): 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB bets and i call. River(2 players 5bb): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB bets and i call. 
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#4
10-14-2005, 07:47 PM
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Re: Blind steal how would you have played it post flop?
[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river - he'll call it with lots J's suspecting a bluff and he'd 3-bet you PF with lots of aces. [/ QUOTE ] The river was the only real street i questioned but i still think ther is a strong chance he folds to raise and that i should fold to a three bet. FWIW he was a vey straight foward player. If three bet what would you do?
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#6
10-14-2005, 11:20 PM
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Re: Blind steal how would you have played it post flop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Raise the river - he'll call it with lots J's suspecting a bluff and he'd 3-bet you PF with lots of aces. [/ QUOTE ] The river was the only real street i questioned but i still think ther is a strong chance he folds to raise and that i should fold to a three bet. FWIW he was a vey straight foward player. If three bet what would you do? [/ QUOTE ] If 3-bet I muck, but again I think he'll call you with a worse hand more often than he 3-bets in this spot; although it may be close if he's "straightforward" in a "not creative enough to 3-bet a mediocre Ace PF" kind of way. Lets face it though - if you're villian you're never folding a J or PP to this river raise. Looks too much like a bluff.
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#7
10-15-2005, 02:36 AM
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Re: Blind steal how would you have played it post flop?
I always try to apply maths to these problems and get flamed whenever I do BUT I never listen.
Assuming reasonably straight forward villian. Range Ax, Jx, small - med PP. I discount and rate AK, AQ AJ JJ as one hand (as all three probably 3 bet preflop.) I also discount J7 - J2 as one hand (as villian rarely calls the raise.) Making. 5 A hands beat you. (AT, A9, A8, A5, AJ+) 5 A hands tie. (A7, A6, A4, A3, A2) 6 J hands you beat. (KJ, QJ, JT, J9, J8 <=J7) 2 PP hands that beat you. (88, 55 - I doubt anything else is hanging around - maybe 99, TT but I doubt it) 5% Villian's favour BUT All bluffs you beat. (T9, KQ) If he bets and bluffs these hands 10% (2\20) chance he has this hand. He must bluff +50% of the time when he has this hand to get the balance back to EVEN. BUT You have to fear a re-raise from A8, A5, 88, 55 taking it back to villian's favour. I'm going to say CALL.
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