I Used The Whole Time Clock On This River

#1 11-28-2005, 01:24 AM

This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero????

Surfbullet · #2 11-28-2005, 01:29 AM

I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.

Surf

sthief09 · #3 11-28-2005, 01:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. Pot is tiny, and these are relatively passive players. Not alot of hands make sense for them, but they certainly aren't 3bet-bluffing. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of : KQ, 75, KK, 77, AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i see AK from the button a lot here.

Drontier · #4 11-28-2005, 05:17 PM

I must be going insane. I was thinking this is a definite cap. I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time. Buttons hand looks like K7 or AK and his AF and PFR is very in line with these 2 hands. Maybe even KJ or smaller. I think we definitely have button beat over 85% of the time. I think sb is the real threat. He whiffs a checkraise on the turn and tries again on the river... But he bet the flop. Hes doing something extremely fancy or he has air/misclick/KQ. Even K7 works for him. A 75/5 player with his AF could easily be reconsidering betting his 7 again in fear of a raise from a 5 or someone hit the Q. Then when its checked through, he could have hit the K and figured his hand is easily good? I'm having a very hard time putting sb on ANY hand. But if hes a 75/5 (probably meaning he doesn't think like the rest of us) I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.

luckyharr · #5 11-28-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think we are ahead more than 33% of the time....I'd be willing to say that we are ahead of him more than 39% of the time. The amount that we would need if we were 85% of the time ahead of button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that 33% is the number we need in order to cap for value. 33% assumes that the button will always call your cap and also assumes that you are never chopping the pot.

sthief09 · #6 11-28-2005, 01:35 AM

i think the turn is too cute. i guess you feel like no one has anything and by betting you will get 2 folds. you certainly cant count on the button to bet. hes not that aggressive and he is super loose which means its likely he calls the flop with nothing.

the river i think is a fold. button's play is exactly in line with a flopped boat. if the pot were bigger id call since you have a strong board kicker. as it stands here, the pot isnt so big, you are hoping to chop, and you have 2 semi-sane players going to war.

so youre getting 10-2 or 12-3. you need to have each of them beat 40-50% of the time. i think the button is 50/50 having a flopped boat or AK. do you beat the SB 1/3 of the time? well i think you chop with him pretty often. maybe half the time you lose, half the time you chop. then you win .5*(.5*.5) = 1/8, so youd need 9-1 if thats right

augie00 · #7 11-28-2005, 01:40 AM

i call 2 more cold and curse my rotten luck/play

DcifrThs · #8 11-28-2005, 01:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

#9 11-28-2005, 01:43 AM

Thanks Barron,

I'm not saying whether I called or folded yet, but I'm glad someone took the flip side or there wouldn't be much discussion here.

This decision was TOUGH.

sthief09 · #10 11-28-2005, 01:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This may have been the toughest river decision I've ever faced. See what you do:

SB is 31/10/1.4 after more than 1000 hands
Button is 75/5/0.8 after ~100 hands

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (3 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero????

[/ QUOTE ]

these players are NOT passive. this is an EASY call given the turn check. not calling here is criminal.

that is to say. bet the freakin turn.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

the turn check makes it harder to fold. the button checked last to act, now he raises? the sb apparently whiffs on a checkraise and now check-3bets. plus hes not getting great odds, and there is a parlay effect which is huge