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#1
08-05-2005, 01:27 AM
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Call this river raise?
Don't have the HH, but basically the deal is
Hero is in LP with TJ. Weak player in EP, solid player in MP. 1 bet apiece preflop. Flop is TJ6r. Check, check, Bet.. Turn: 3 of bricks Check, check, Bet.. River: 7 Check, check, Bet, WP calls, SP Raises.. He has 89. If he doesn't have 89, he has a slowplayed set. Hero folds, right? 
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#2
08-05-2005, 03:30 AM
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The art of value calling river raises!
The art of value calling river raises!
Dear Mr Street, First lets do the math! The math the math always the math! (Pascal) First what are our pot odds on this call? Right 10 to 1. 3 small pre-flop, 3 small flop, 3 big turn, and 4 river, including the river raise. Equals 10. Next what do we know about this opponent? “He is a solid player” Solid players check raise. Right! But also don’t solid players bluff raise? Well Yes. And don’t solid players occasionally slow play? Yes. And won’t solid players raise with two pair which aren’t the top two? Next were there any pre-river betting patterns that would help us understand our opponent hand? Yes, but those patterns tends to make us think that he didn’t he didn’t hit a straight on the river. To do so he would have had to have passed up the opportunity to bet an open-ended straight draw on the flop. Most solid players are going to put in a bet here, in a 3-way hand. If they take the hand here great. If not they have the redraw with a 33% fill rate. Next when do solid players put in river bluff bets? When a scare card hits on the river! Did a scare card hit? Yes it did. Next are there any other hands a solid player could have check raised with. Yes! A slow played Jack Ten, or a Jack six. or a Suited Jack weak kicker 7. Or a big pair. These hands may not be likely BUT they are all possible. During your lifetime how often does this call have to work to be profitable? Let’s see. 1 Call miss! 2. Call miss 3. Call miss 4. Call miss 5. Call miss 6. Call miss 7. Call miss 8. Call miss 9 Call HIT! WE HAVE A WINNER!!!!! And with these pot odds it more than pays for all of the misses. If you hit only this often, you are going to make a profit in your lifetime. And trust me, top two pair will be good more than one in ten times. I am still mad about a pot I missed at the Mirage Sunday night. It was a $275 dollar pot. But the table was on tilt. I had missed my flush draw and was left with a pair of 8s. The gun had been totally quiet, just calling, until an unrelated 2 hit the river. And then he came out betting. There were 4 over cards to my 8s on the board. And the lady in front of me exclaimed that she would not let the gun get away with bluffing. I threw my 8s. into the muck and the gun showed down a pair of 2s, while our sheriff lady had an unpaired king high hand. I had already decided to call, until she made her exclamation. Color me stupid! But our rule is, to call the river when it is a big pot for one bet even with marginal hands. And top two-pair is above marginal. Thank you for raising this important and interesting topic. Most sincerely, Doctavian
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#3
08-05-2005, 03:44 AM
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Re: The art of value calling river raises!
Right. And that doctrine (call large pots on the river for one bet) was running through my head at the time.
But then I thought about it. That offsuit 7 really wasn't that scary looking. It was a scare card for me, but it wasn't one that really invited bluffing. It was unlikely that he would bet the flop because 1) The weak player is always calling 1, usually folding for 2, 2) I would only call if I had odds, and 3) I would raise him fairly liberally. So quite likely he ends up HU, and likely raised. Even if we both call, it's a 0EV bet, so it's only good for the unlikely possibility of a free card. I don't have hundreds of hands on the guy, but I could certainly see him not betting this flop with a straight draw. On the river, a total bluff-raise doesn't make any sense, because weak player is calling no matter what. So he either has me beat, OR he has something that he thinks has a very good chance of beating weak player's hand at least. I could go on, but I don't see him ending up at this river, having a hand that fits that category, and trying for a bluff-raise 1 time in 11. Far from it.
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#4
08-05-2005, 04:07 AM
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Re: Call this river raise?
Unless MP is trying to drive you out, figuring his second-best hand is better than the caller's, it would appear that you're beat.
You'd think with any second-best hand he's trying to isolate with now that he believes will hold up versus EP's hand, he would have bet the flop. Plus, I don't really see river isolation checkraises all that often. A worse two-pair doesn't seem very likely. So unless he's checkraise-bluffing, hoping for two folds, with a hand like Q9 or an unlikely 44, it would appear you're beat. That said, I have a hard time laying down top two to a raise from nowhere and might have paid off. But 98 is a really good guess here.
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#5
08-05-2005, 04:31 AM
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Re: Call this river raise?
[ QUOTE ]
Unless MP is trying to drive you out, figuring his second-best hand is better than the caller's, it would appear that you're beat. You'd think with any second-best hand he's trying to isolate with now that he believes will hold up versus EP's hand, he would have bet the flop. Plus, I don't really see river isolation checkraises all that often. A worse two-pair doesn't seem very likely. So unless he's checkraise-bluffing, hoping for two folds, with a hand like Q9 or an unlikely 44, it would appear you're beat. That said, I have a hard time laying down top two to a raise from nowhere and might have paid off. But 98 is a really good guess here. [/ QUOTE ] Ya. Welll what I really did is said "***, he has 98. Call. Oh, I was right. 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Well. Glad I paid to see that." Against an unknown I'm making this call every time. But against this guy I should've folded. These adages are good, but I think it's important to realize when they really don't apply. I have a bad habit of calling because somebody 'could' be bluffing. What I need to ask myself is "is there a 1/11 chance that they're bluffing?". In this situation, I think the answer was a clear No.
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#7
08-05-2005, 04:50 AM
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Re: The art of value calling river raises!
[ QUOTE ]
On the river, a total bluff-raise doesn't make any sense, because weak player is calling no matter what. So he either has me beat, OR he has something that he thinks has a very good chance of beating weak player's hand at least. [/ QUOTE ] -He's not bluffing into two people who already invested a bet. -So his raise indicates he can beat top pair. -There aren't any plausible 2 pairs, especially since he would surely have bet out the flop w/ Jx. -So he must have better than 2 pair. Of course I'm like you - I can do the analysis but I don't have enough trust in it to stop from making the crying call. At any rate: interesting hand, thanks for posting it.
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#9
08-05-2005, 03:59 PM
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Re: The art of value calling river raises!
[ QUOTE ]
what about 67? [/ QUOTE ] Good point. Seems possible. He's only getting 6:1 on the turn, but he can certainly expect at least 2, probably 4 more (as he got).. so if he expects two low pair to be good, that's possible.
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