3/6 JJ: Tough Flop Decision? What to do...?

[AL5AcE]

Hi guys, I thought this was a pretty tough flop decision. I just moved up to 3/6. Villan is in CO and i've seen him 3 bet a couple of raises before and plays aggressively.

OK, bison's hand converter is messed up. I'll try my best:

Party Poker (8 handed)

I am in MP1 with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG+1 Calls, I raise, Villan 3-bets in CO, UTG+1 Calls, I Call.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG+1 Checks, I bet, CO Raises, UTG+1 Calls, I fold (getting 15.3/1)

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG+1 Checks, CO bets, UTG+1 Calls

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG+1 Checks, CO bets, UTG+1 Calls

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has 6d Ah (two pair, kings and sixes).
CO has 9h 9d (two pair, kings and nines).
Outcome: CO wins 11.16 BB</font>


How is the fold on the flop? Anyone play this hand differently? Thanks for your responses!

[sy_or_bust]

Cap preflop. No big deal folding the flop, unless you know you're fighting a maniac.

[AL5AcE]

Sorry for posting too soon, but the thing that bothers me with the flop is that it's correct for CO to raise with anything other than a K, but I guess when there's a cold caller after him folding is ok?

just a small peice of advice that has worked for me against lags - cap preflop (it slows them down) - you have the best hand prelop the vast majority of the time. although i know alot of ppl here will disagree with my preflop cap, i find its works alot.


i like the flop bet because it puts UTG facing 2 bets cold on the flop. you muct call this flop raise. you are getting 15/1 and u are a 23:1 dog to hit your J, plus you will still have the best hand alot of ther time on this board. There are alot of draws out there for UTG to call and co doesnt need a hand to raise.

the rest of the hand i call down. unless UTG sudennly wakes up. see you are in perfect position for a turn check then when co bets you can see if UTG will check raise a made hand or simply call with his draw.

remove the word texas from your hand history and the converter will work

[jrbick]

I defintely call the flop raise. IO's against a LAG are wonderful if your J comes, but I'm honestly not worried about improving against a LAG. The Turn has me even more convinced that I'm ahead (much less likely that he actually has the K) and I'm not worried about being behind to UTG+1.

LAGS can be tricky, but big-time donators. I'm generally calling down ANY piece against them HU, sometimes A high depending on the board.

[AL5AcE]

I like the cap preflop advice. I actually considered it but then just called. After seeing the results (the turn card and showdown)I also came up with basically the same line as you, to call down unless something strange happens.

But you seriously don't fear UTG+1's limp PF, CCPF, CC on flop? It keeps biting at me that I folded against CO which I thought I had a great chance against, but UTG+1's actions just seemed to make me fold at the moment. I'd also call down if it was HU.

well like i said you are in perfect position to see how UTG reacts to co turn bet.

[Doctavian]

Flopped over-card to your big pair strategy!

Dear Ace,

You raise one of the most important flop questions in hold-em. It is critical that we understand the strategic implications of this situation. And that we have a plan of attack already formulated BEFORE we face it. And that we know that plan COLD! We don’t have time to do the math during the hand.

First let’s review our math! Math, Math always the math! (Pascal)


Well how many opponents are we against? Answer 2.

Next what are the odds that one of them has a king? (Remember low limit players will often keep an Ace anything. BUT they are much less inclined to keep a King anything!) A flopped Ace would have been a much more dangerous situation.

In a ten-handed game on average 1.7 kings were dealt to your opponents. Players like to start with related paints. So an educated guestimate is that maybe 20% of the time one of the two is holding a king. Remember a player who starts with cards of two different rank will hit one of his rank 33% of the time, and a specific card i.e. a king only 15% of the time. And none of your opponents raised pre-flop. This decreases the odds that one holds two big cards. And the odds that one has a king.

But here is what most player don’t consider. Remember on average you will be dealt two suited cards once every 4 hands, so in a ten handed game there is a 50% chance that an opponent was dealt 2 HEARTS. That statistic is key for annualizing our opponents hand card raising odds. There is also a 45% chance that an opponent was dealt two cards connected to the flopped 6, 8 single gap straight draw.

I VERY much like the fact that you bet into that over card king.

I call that an information-value bet. Odds are that it was for value, but it also can give us valuable information (Which it did)

Now your opponent raised. But mathematically what are the most likely hands that he raised with? Number one is not a King but a flush draw! Number two is a pair of Kings. Number three is a straight draw. Four is two pair (49 to 1) And number 5 is a set. (odds 77 to 1)

But at the moment you don’t know where you stand and you big pair is just too good to give up on yet.

What I do here is to switch from an offensive lead player to a defensive weak draw player strategy.


Do you have any other strength in your hand? Yes, you have the third nut back door flush draw. So how many outs do you have? Right 3.5

So why do we call!

Because 5% of the time we will hit our set on the turn.
And 23% of the time we will hit our 4 flush draw.
And ABOUT 20% of the time the raiser will miss his/her draw and check the turn and let us know that WE are still in the lead!
And about 5% of the time the raiser is a loose jammer who is pushing middle pair. About 5% of the time the top flop card pairs and the original raiser backs off. (Top flop pairing decreases the probability that an opponent has a king and actually increases the probability that you are still in the lead)

Now those aren’t bad odds. And you waited 55 hands for that big pair and you paid 6 big blinds and 6 small blinds to get it. No, we aren’t going to give up on it just yet!

So our Big pair is either still good, or it is now a weak draw.

And that is why we call in this position.


Thank you for raising this important and interesting topic.

Most sincerely,

Doctaviant

well done