Big Starting Cards, Anna Kornakova, Pascal, and Luck! Doc AZ

[Doctavian]

Big Starting Cards, Anna Kornakova, Pascal, and Luck! Doc AZ

The other day I was out of a hand when a friend, sitting next to me, folded his hand on Fourth Street. As he did he flashed his cards so that I could see his holdings.
He had an Ace of spade‘s and a King of diamond's for hole cards. He had a Queen of Clubs in his door. And he had a four of spades as his fourth street flop.*

“An Anna Kornakova hand! So pretty to look at but never can win!” He muttered, as his cards sailed into the muck.

The three big broadways with a two suit flop* are fourth street holdings, which are in a world of hurt.

But why, you might ask?

The math, the math it always seems to come back to the math!!!

Let’s do the math:

When I evaluate my holdings on fourth street I ALWAYS do what I called “Doc’s four dimensional evaluation” What is the combined powers of my pair, flush, straight and bluffing potentials ?

Let’s together open Otmer's book on seven card stud, and turn to his section on the probabilities of improvement from fourth street for two flushes, closed in straights, an pair development for unpaired hands.

WHAT YOU DON'T HAVE A COPY OF OTMER’S BOOK! WELL FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, GET ONE!,!,!

The provability of a two flush going on to make a flush from fourth street is damn near zero, the provability of a closed in straight filing by the river is almost damn near zero. And the bluff value of a Queen door and a small off suit flop card is zip.

That leaves us with our pair draws.

The world famous mathematician Pascal, is the patron saint of gamblers. Before he died, in his thirties, he had revolutionized the world of mathematics.

Pascal's special love was his work on the influences on odds in games of chance.

What is our pair draw? Well to the untrained eye it looks as if it might be good. Aren’t those big broadways pretty? An ace, a king, and a Queen.

But as Pascal would point out, in an 8 handed game of stud when you miss pairing on the flop, your big broadways are in a world of hurt.

He would remind us that “lucky players” see stud as a game of big pairs, (With some help from flushes and straights)

And Pascal would ask: In an 8 handed game, what is average number of players who are dealt starting hands that contain a pair? (Had this been your hand you wouldn’t have been dealt one)

Next he would ask: “what is provability that one or more of your opponents already has one or TWO PAIRS by Fourth Street?” (If this was your hand you still wouldn't have one incidentally)

Now check Otmer’s calculations on the provability of your catching up with your provable opponents, in pairs, from this point to the river in a 7-card game.

“But Doc the math shows that my chances are miserable!

Right again.

This hand is dead. As Pascal taught us, in seven cards stud FOURTH STREET is the key to winning.

It will usually make you, or break you.

This post was stimulated by my reading a post from a forum member who had an almost identical hand to this one.

As I remember it, not only did he not dump his hand on fourth, he came out betting it!

May God have mercy!


As I remember he checked his hand on third. (Some people would semi-bluff raise here) But then when he hit his two flush brick on fourth he bet the hand. Under the delusion that the addition of a two flush, on fourth, had significantly strengthened his hand.

It hadn’t!

When the mathematicians of the world learned of Pascal’s greatness. And of his special love for games of chance. They naturally asked him, “Does luck really exist in gamming?"

His famous answer was that “LUCK FAVORS THE PREPARED MIND!”

What he ment by that, was that the world might see the player who knows his math and dumps this Anna Kornacovw hand, as being lucky. But he is not lucky, he simply plays poker with a prepared mind.

I have been a scientist all of my life. And to me Poker is nothing more than the integration of two basic sciences applied mathematics and applied psychology.

Knowledge is power in life, but it is even more important in Poker. Because in Poker knowledge is money.

I would recommend that our new players master Otmer’s flush, straight, and pair probabilities from fourth street.

To me it is the key to the game. 99% of all the poker players in the world will not master them.


And that means that you can be one of Pascal's “lucky players” because you will always have a significant edge over them for the rest of your life.

We will delay reviewing the hundred or so other stud edges we need to master for another day.

You friend,

Doc AZ

* The word flop goes way back in Poker history. Even as far back as the American civil war, before the inventors of hold-em were ever born.

It (the flop cards) was what differentiated closed poker games from open ones.

An open game was one in which the dealer FLOPPED some of the cards face up. (Hence the name, “your fourth street flop!”)

Shelby Foot, the noted historian, tells us that the night before the battle of Fredericksburg the soldiers in both the Union and Confederate armies were playing thousands of games of Poker.

And he tells us that the game they loved best, was called STUD HORSE POKER. As years passed the name of the game was abbreviated to just plain stud.

PS: A popular American soda drink was named after Americ's civil war soldiers favorite form of Stud.

It was called 7-up!

And that’s the rest of the story.


“WHY DOC! WHY DO YOU ALWAYS PUT IN THESE OTHER CRAZY STORIES DURRING YOUR HAND ANALYSES?"

Because I love you! That's why!

[stanky]

[ QUOTE ]
And that’s the rest of the story

[/ QUOTE ]

You better hope Paul Harvey doesn't see this. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But seriously I've really enjoyed reading your posts. I'm new to stud and am eager to suck up as much knowledge as possibly. So far the only reading I've done is the section in Super Systems, but I will definitely be picking up the books you suggest.

Keep up the good posts.

-Pete

[mscags]

ALways good Doc. I agree. Those hands look so good but really do never win in a big multiway pot. What are your thoughts on them if you are heads up against someone?

[Michael Emery]

Doc, while your advice is interesting regarding three broadway cards on third, many times it is correct to play such hands. If the structure is that of a "big" stud game, you're losing far too much by not playing them in many instances. Not only do they have stealing value on third, but a lot of times they're still correct to play even if you know your behind. Ex. A 30-60 game or up with you holding your friends (AK)Q. A player with a jack in the door raises on your right. You look around and your cards are live. There are also no higher upcards than your queen. If you knew for a fact that he had jacks you would still be playing. Most of the time you would even want to reraise to assure it gets heads-up. While your essay is good I feel I need to point out that you're only a 65-35 dog to a lower pair here with your AKQ, and in higher ante structures its very playable. Also (correct me if I'm wrong) one out of six times you will be dealt a pair in stud. This means a decent portion of the time our AKQ will actually be the best hand, especially after several players have passed. Add in the factor that we could get low and medium pairs to fold if we raise as the first one in and it gets better. Once again, I'm not advising this for a tight structure. I just wanted to point out that such hands are very playable under certain conditions.

[ QUOTE ]
This post was stimulated by my reading a post from a forum member who had an almost identical hand to this one.

As I remember it, not only did he not dump his hand on fourth, he came out betting it!

May God have mercy!


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you happen to remember the exact post? He could of had good reason to. Unless it was beermoney of course, he'll keep firing with anything just for the hell of it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Mike Emery

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
WHAT YOU DON'T HAVE A COPY OF OTMER’S BOOK! WELL FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, GET ONE!,!,!


[/ QUOTE ]

I've never heard of this book and google hasn't either.

Doc is this a joke or does this book exist? (if it exists I will buy it out of respect for you)

Cheers,
SDM

[TheShootah]

I got your back Doc.

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/477701.html

Booyah Granma!

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
I got your back Doc.

http://www.gamblersbook.com/weblink....il/477701.html

Booyah Granma!

[/ QUOTE ]

Many Thanks.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
I would recommend that our new players master Otmer’s flush, straight, and pair probabilities from fourth street.


[/ QUOTE ]

The book has been ordered. Wow, I have my first reading assignment in 15 years. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thanks Doc.