Blind defense ... Is this even close to +EV?

#1 10-18-2005, 10:26 AM

Villian is a rock (4% VPIP). Did I spew chips?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero Bets

MrWookie47 · #2 10-18-2005, 10:27 AM

How many hands is your read over?

#3 10-18-2005, 10:32 AM

Rock is a rock over 50 hands, which isn't much. 50 hands later, he is still at 4.5.

#4 10-18-2005, 10:36 AM

Im doing the same as you because of the straight possibility. I would check fold the river if he calls.

stoli · #5 10-18-2005, 10:41 AM

This is a really read dependent situation. It really depends on if you think he is putting a move on your blinds or not I think. FWIW I ran a simulation in poker stove assuming he wasn't necessarily stealing but was raising with any broadways and any pair bigger than 66.

That simulation gave me that the KJ has 45% equity.
The range of villians' hands having 55% equity.

If you think villian is super-tight after the flop and will fold to your aggression than this could be +ev. If you think he is not making a move but raising a rather legitimate hand and will see it through, than I don't think this is +ev.

I guess it all depends on how likely you think he is to be making a move and how he has played postflop the few times he was in. What do you think villian thinks of you? Will he put you on a monster holding or does he view you as a loose player?

bozlax · #6 10-18-2005, 10:43 AM

Unless he's weak-tight postflop, I don't love this. What're the rest of his stats? Have you seen him steal much? You're HU against an opponent who's likely got you at least dominated with AA/QQ/AK, if not crushed with KK/JJ. If he's a true rock, all 3-betting him preflop is going to do is cause him to put the brakes on with a premium but non-AA pocket pair, but unless he's weak-tight he's likely to call down with hands like AK/AQ.

If I trust my read, and 5 orbits is enough that I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt, and he's NOT weak-tight on the flop, then I just let him have his steal, here, and move on to the next hand. Do you really want to be putting 50% of the money into the pot against a player like this with KJo?

imported_The Vibesman · #7 10-18-2005, 10:46 AM

The important thing here is what does villian play like after the flop. I don't mind it against an opponent who folds a lot after the flop, but very often tight players will go back on their heels and turn into calling stations rather than folding, and if this is that type you are probably spewing chips.

fish43 · #8 10-18-2005, 10:47 AM

Just call preflop, you're out of position, and the hands a rock raises with preflop could easily dominate you. Also, if the board cames rags, or coordinated low cards then the cold call makes a donk bet more believable.

The three-bet makes him think you have a big pocket pair or AK. So he's just going to call down with his JJ-QQ.

What's his read on you?

Two calls from a rock in a heads up pot, this can't be good.

The board looks scary, so your river bet might win it.

jrz1972 · #9 10-18-2005, 10:53 AM

People with 4% PFRs don't steal blinds. He has a real hand, he has you beat, and yes you were probably spewing.

I would have just called preflop and played fit-or-fold from there. These kinds of situations are definitely opponent-dependent.

#10 10-18-2005, 10:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Just call preflop, you're out of position, and the hands a rock raises with preflop could easily dominate you. Also, if the board cames rags, or coordinated low cards then the cold call makes a donk bet more believable.

[/ QUOTE ]

He did this same move, almost identically, last orbit. I don't get his play at all, because he wont call preflop, and folded to agression the other two times I saw him play, but he stole my blind last orbit. He didn't make any sense to me.

My whole reraise/bet pattern was hoping to put him off a monster based on his previous play. Just about anything he had beats me here, but I didn't want him to know it. He was hesitant to call my reraise, he hesitated with the bets.

I think my whole problem is that I don't really 'get' blind defense. I have read about it. I have watched it. But I still don't really know what the best place is to defend.