How would you play this Hand? Doc AZ

[Doctavian]

How would you play this hand?

You looked away from the table for a moment; to accept two large complimentary diet cokes (with lime)from the waitress. And just then the dealer said: “Your action sir!”


You turn and see that the 2 of clubs is in your door. As you toss a chip into the pot, you notice that “The Ringed Pounder” has just seated himself in the chair on your immediate left.

The Ringed Pounder (in his threatening deep baritone voice) says “I raise.”

You take 5 seconds to use our “TWO PLUS TWO” Stud Forum card memory technique, and turn back to the waitress to toke her for the cokes and order a steak.... "Medium rare please Miss!"

With your back to the table you hear the other players say fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, and pass!

You turn again, and look at your hole cards, and see that you have an Ace of hearts and a Two of hearts in your pocket.

You use our stud forum “door to door” memory feed back technique and remember that the third street starting conditions were:

1.Gun position: “Pounder“: (King of spades )
2 Gun left: “The Mouse that Roars": (Queen of diamonds )
3. Early position “ The Rock of Ages”: (Seven of spades)
4. Middle 1. " The Weeping Widdow": (Three of diamonds)
5. Middle 2. “Jerry Jackpot”( Nine of hearts)
6. Late position: “Rufus Four Gears” (Jack of clubs)
7.Button right: “The Dead Eyed Tiger”( Jack of diamonds)
8. You a.k.a. “ The Master “ Your(Two of clubs)


You take 5 seconds to do our standard forum pot analysis: And know that there are eight half dollar bets, your dollar bet, and the Pounder’s three dollar raise in the pot. The dealer has taken one dollar out, for the jackpot. So the odds on your calling are.

Your two dollars needed to call, versus a pot of seven dollars. So the pot is presently giving you 3.5 to 1 odds.


Then you take 2 seconds to do an opponent analyses and remember that:

You used our two name player identification technique back when you named our opponent "The Ringed Pounder" ( which was the only time you ever played with him, and that was some three weeks ago)

And you remember that you choose that name because: he wears a gaudy earring in his left ear, and he is a habitual jammer. He plays all big hands and hands with big potential the same way. And that is to pound his opponents into submission with bets and raises.

You take a big swig of your lime coke and say:” I...............”

How would you play this hand out?

[Doctavian]

Extra point question number 1.


At the moment the initial question was asked, the pot was giving you 3.5 to 1 odds.

But if you were to call or raise the bet, AND the action went to the river: What would your implied odds be for calling!

[Doctavian]

Extra point question number 2

What is your definition of implied odds for calling hands?

[greenage]

I have no clue but if you stop drinking that Diet Cola chit, you will live longer. If you live longer, someday I may understand what you are saying.

Stick around, OK. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BTirish]

Well, it seems there isn't any reason, given the read of the opponent, to credit him for K's. He could have a 3-flush (1 dead spade on board), the K's (with or without a spade kicker) or another pair in the hole. If he's got a 3-flush, he's still got 3 overcards over my pair.

So, I'm either slightly ahead or slightly behind. The hand is definitely playable, so it's either call or raise. Since I just don't know exactly where I am, I'd just call. No need to raise to knock anyone out, and what I catch on 4th and/or 5th can dictate whether proceeding is worth it, but most likely I'd call it down and start raising if/when I improve to 2 pair or better. Getting 3.5 to 1 on the first call makes it worth calling down, until his board pairs or shows a 3rd spade--at which point I throw it away if unimproved.

[greenage]

[ QUOTE ]
Extra point question number 1.


At the moment the initial question was asked, the pot was giving you 3.5 to 1 odds.

But if you were to call or raise the bet, AND the action went to the river: What would your implied odds be for calling!

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, sorry for the previous lame response. I really need to learn to wait 12 hours before I hit the submit button.

At $3/$6:

Minimally, if you just call the $2 on third and get in only one raise on a big-bet street, your implied odds should be 17 to 1.

Profit:

3rd: $7
4th: $3
5th: $6
6th: $12 (the raise comes here)
7th: $6

$7 + $3 + $6 + $12 + $6 = $34. $34/$2 = 17:1.

Is this even close to correct?

[Doctavian]

Excellent post B Tish! Excellent post! Doc AZ



Dear B-Tish

Tish: ”Well, it seems there isn't any reason, given the read of the opponent, to credit him for K's.”

Exactly right! Well done! If you aren’t a cautious stud player you have no chance of winning. But if you always presume the worse hand scenario you can never be a big winner.

So what we do, when we analyze how we are going to act, is to first do a differential diagnosis of what our opponents handholding probably are. And that depends on his playing profile, and the applied card mathematics.


So in this case the differential diagnosis of “The Pounders hand” in order of the probability of his likely holdings would be:

1. Split Kings, kicker unknown
2. Big cards provably with a 2 flush
3. Big flush draw (with one dead card)
4. Door King with a pocket pair (the classic third street semi bluff raise)
5. Set of Kings (with a negative odds probability of about 80 to 1)
6. Bluff (unlikely because he is coming out from under the gun, and this move would be inconsistent with his typical actions.

Then as the hand develops, and as we gain more information, we adjust our differential diagnosis.

Point number 2:

B Tish “he's still got 3 over cards over my pair“

EXACTLY RIGHT! BUT he doesn‘t have an over card to your Ace kicker. In stud the ace is the “ultimate over card” because there is no possible way that it can be over carded.


We will go over that later when we discuss assigning power points when we doing our hand odds to pot odd profit potential calculations.

B Tish “So, I'm either slightly ahead or slightly behind”

Well done Tish! Well done! I’ll bet that 90% of players won’t even consider the fact that there is an approximate 15% chance that they are leading at this moment.

Tish “so it's either call or raise. Since I just don't know exactly where I am, I'd just call“

Right again Tish! I told you that you had the makings of a great player.

WHO IN THE HELL! Is even going to bring up the possibility of raising here? Only an excellent player would. BUT like you, he probably wouldn‘t for several reasons. And if he did, he should presume that it would be in his best interest to be the one to cap the betting against this Pounder!

Pounders and Jammers terrify 90% of poker players. But remember, to us, they are “our bread and butter” And what are the two basic counterstrategies when confronting Pounders. One is to let them build the pot and then check raise them on the river. And the other is to slap them hard in their face early, and then bleed them all the way to the river.


B Tish “what I catch on 4th and/or 5th can dictate whether proceeding is worth it,”

Right Right Right! Fourth Street is “Commitment ally in stud“! The key to winning stud is your third street decisions. BUT the key to making big money at stud is making the right fourth street decisions. But you are right again, B-Tish, about 10% of the time we are not going to commit our hand until fifth street.


Tish you have made some excellent observations. I told you before that I sensed the potential for greatness in you. If you are willing to put in the work you are going to win.


There are quite a few other points that we need to go over, but my Boston Terrier “Rascal” is angry that he hasn’t had his breakfast. And when he gets in one of his moods he just won’t stop barking.

I had one of those “great nights” at the casino last night, when just about everything seemed to go perfectly. As I was leaving I bumped into my old friend Dr. C (the noted card auther and gin master) who is also an excellent poker player. "C" had played all day, and only won $20. (OH THE HUMANITY OF IT ALL) So I put my arm on his shoulder and escorted him to the Casino bar, for an after session debriefing. I told the waitress that we both were going to need a stiff one. So we got two large diet Cokes on the rocks, each with a big splashs of Rose’s lime.


A wad of freshly won C notes in your pocket. A tall cold lime Coke in your hand. And a good friend to kibitz with at your side. Life doesn’t get much better than that! God I love this Game !

Thank you for your response,

Your Friend,

Doc AZ

[Doctavian]

Dear Green,

Thanks for the “lame response” apology. Hey, we ALL have done something like that occasionally.

During our poker careers. over 99% of our opponents are pulling for us to fail. But 99% of our forum friends are working to see that we win. That is what makes this such a special place.


OK enough said: Now let’s get on with the good stuff!!!

We have a VERY important concept to master here!

In the scenario we were provided we were given one known fact. The exercise informs us that, You and/or I (both excellent players) went to the river with this hand.

Now what had to have happened for that to have occurred???.


And if “IT” did how would we have played the hand?



This is very important technique, and I feel that very few players do it properly.

(Before you calculate the potential future bets here, I would like you to read my response to B-Trish on the classic techniques to counter attack jammers and Pounders.)


Here is what the great players do. (I’m not a great player but I am a master inquisitor) and I have spent years asking them questions.

As a friend of mine who has been ranked 4th in the world in stud tournament winnings explainms it:

“ Doc, What I do in these situations is to immediately play a senerio in my head (Like a movie) of how I would like the hand to go.

And it would go something like this:

1 In the next few seconds one of two or three things will happen.
2. If what I want to happen, happens, what am I going to do to extract every penny I can from this hand
3. And if I do that how many bets am I probably going to extract from my opponent or opponents.


Then you add up the bets from your opponent or opponents (this does NOT INCLUDE your future bets) and that gives you, your implied odds for the hand.

So I would like you to play the hand in your head the way you would WANT it to go. (It always amazes me how many times the hand does go exactly as I script it.)

Remember your opponent is the president of the Cappa Cappa Cappa betting technique fraternity. Keep that in mind as you create your scenario, and now calculate your implied odds.


. Remember we don’t worry about missing our draws here, because if we do we can just dump the hand and wait for the next opportunity.

. Mastering this concept and this technique should easily win you an extra $50,000 dollars in your career So we want to get it right.


I look forward to hearing you answer.


Your friend,

Doc AZ

[zoidswallet]

Could you elaborate on the 2+2 stud forum memory technique, and the others mentioned in your post?

[CJC]

Wow,

I leave for a while, and the Doc returns.. How are ya?

If I am reading your post correctly, you are now heads up with a late position raiser.

There are two ways to play this hand, and I usually do both to mix it up ( and depending on the player )

1) You can re-raise right there which in a $3-6 game in Arizona has absolutely no chance of doing what you want.

so..so..

2) I call and probably put in a bet or raise on the big-bets depending on how everyone catches..

How are the games out there? I was back out there this past August.

Great to see ya again my friend.

CJ