Chasing the trifecta

elindauer · #1 10-17-2005, 03:10 PM

A random thread of thought in my brain has been whether or not you should ever actually pull off a trifecta (three check-raises postflop) when you are playing to maximize your EV. One part of my brain believes that the game-theory optimal solution to poker must obviously include this line some percentage of the time. Another part can't actually find the time when you it's correct.

I played this hand yesterday, and had a small "Eureka!" moment, describing conditions when it might be best to go for it. Here's the hand:

MP limps. I complete in the SB w/ Q9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB checks.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

It's checked to the big blind who autobets. I check-raise. The BB check-3-bets, the limper gives up, and I call.

Turn: something small

I check-raise.

River: something small

Now, in the hand, I bet and was called, but it occurred to me later that the SB may well have a hand strong enough to bet if I check to him, but one that isn't quite comfortable 3-betting the turn, since he check-3-bet the flop. In the actual hand, he showed Q4o, and I knew I'd missed a golden opportunity.

Look for the trifecta when the you flop a very strong hand in an unraised pot against an opponent who shows a lot of true flop strength.

my 2 cents.
Eric

CardSharpCook · #2 10-17-2005, 03:49 PM

In over 350K hands, I've yet to pull off the trifecta. Some day... Some day... And no, for the most part it is -EV. You need that flop 3-bet to make the turn easier.

brick · #3 10-17-2005, 04:01 PM

Because you can discount a flopped set (because he didn't 3 bet the turn) you can narrow the BB down to a slow played AA or KK, two pair, top pair. For this situation the aggression level/trickiness of your opponent from the BB plays a factor in how likely he is to have flopped two pair.

Your summary sentence is good, but I think it would prove more valuable if you added a few more clarifying sentences.

JohnnyHumongous · #4 10-17-2005, 04:17 PM

One time like a year ago I was in a hand where I raised AK and was called in a couple places. Flop came Kxx, checked to me, I bet and big blind checkraised, and I called. Turn came a blank, big blind checked, I bet and he checkraised. River came a K. Big blind checked, I bet and he checkraised. He had K4 or whatever for a flopped 2 pair which filled on the river. This was probably as close to optimal as a trifecta-attempt can be in my experience.

elindauer · #5 10-17-2005, 07:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Because you can discount a flopped set (because he didn't 3 bet the turn) you can narrow the BB down to a slow played AA or KK, two pair, top pair. For this situation the aggression level/trickiness of your opponent from the BB plays a factor in how likely he is to have flopped two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got it. I'm not sure the aggressiveness level of your opponent is really that important though, provided it's not extremely low. Whether he has slowplayed aces, flop two pair, flopped TPTK... it was something good enough that he check-3-bet it. He'll probably want to bet it if you check to him on the river should his hand still look good vs the board.

By the way, you are right. I meant "checked to the limper who autobets" in my post, not big blind. Thanks.

-Eric

elindauer · #6 10-17-2005, 07:06 PM

An interesting move on the turn by your opponent, but I'm not a big fan of his check-raise there. Ifyou have a K or AA, he can probably bet-3-bet. I'd prefer his move if you had, say, 3-bet the flop and he could know with more confidence that you were going to bet the turn.

my 2 cents.
eric

#7 10-17-2005, 07:07 PM

I think you should have gone for it. What's one extra bet compared to Holy Grail.

elindauer · #8 10-17-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In over 350K hands, I've yet to pull off the trifecta. Some day... Some day... And no, for the most part it is -EV. You need that flop 3-bet to make the turn easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that going for the trifecta generally requires giving up some EV. I also have never pulled it off, but then, I never attempt it. I think I missed a correct trifecta this hand, what do you think? Should I have check-raised again on the river, or did I play it optimally?

-Eric

elindauer · #9 10-17-2005, 07:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should have gone for it. What's one extra bet compared to Holy Grail.

[/ QUOTE ]

Had it crossed my mind on the river, I certainly would have checked. I was multitabling at the time, but realized just a moment too late that I may have made a mistake (I'm constantly reviewing hands in my head immediately after I play them to check my game).

On a sidenote, the fact that I didn't consider the 3rd check-raise until after I had bet gives you just a tiny glimpse into why multitabling lowers your (my) winrate.

good luck.
eric

CardSharpCook · #10 10-17-2005, 07:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In over 350K hands, I've yet to pull off the trifecta. Some day... Some day... And no, for the most part it is -EV. You need that flop 3-bet to make the turn easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that going for the trifecta generally requires giving up some EV. I also have never pulled it off, but then, I never attempt it. I think I missed a correct trifecta this hand, what do you think? Should I have check-raised again on the river, or did I play it optimally?

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you played it optimally. Even knowing what he had, is he really gonna fall for the same trick 3 times?