Taking advantage of their mistakes

[elindauer]

Have you noticed that there are many common situations in the current game, particularly online, where you can know with near certainty that someone will bet?

One thing I've been thinking about lately is that this certainty must represent a mistake of some sort by my opponents. It's as though players have elliminated some of their options. This can't be good for them, can it? I've been wondering how I should adjust my strategy to best take advantage of this mistake. Here are a few thoughts I've come up with. Maybe you can add your own.


case 1. Blind steal. Someone raises and it's folded to me in the big blind. I know that if I call and check the flop, they will always bet. Because I know this, calling and check-raising is always superior to 3-betting and leading, since my hand is less clearly defined for my opponent, and he's more likely to make big postflop mistakes. That's right, I'm saying you should just call with aces, kings, AK, everything you'd normally 3-bet and lead, instead call and check-raise any time you're heads up.

scenario 2: I raise, and someone 3-bets me. I know that if I call and check, he'll bet the flop every time. Like in scenario 1, I can take advantage of this by simply calling and check-raising any hand that I would have capped.


Here are a couple other things I've been thinking about along these lines...

1) blind defense... if I know that my opponent will always bet the flop, does that make me more inclined to play against him, or less? My instinct is that if he's making a mistake to always bet, that must mean I can play more hands.

2) if I feel that autobetting these situations is wrong, how can I change my own play to be more difficult to play against? In particular, what flops should I be checking after 3-betting, and after open-raising and getting it heads up with the big blind?


Lots to discuss. Pick out anything that strikes your fancy.

-Eric

[BlindingLaser]

The reason you need to re-raise preflop with your strong hands is because your opponent will like the flop some of the time. So if you 3-bet and lead against a steal with AA on a flop of J72r, your opponent will raise you with AJ, allowing you to get a third bet on a flop, in addition to the extra bet you got preflop. Your way, you only get in two bets preflop, and two bets on the flop. The only reason to slowplay a hand that big would be to gain bets on one of the large streets, which has limited effectiveness, because when you're behind you tend to give up more bets than you gain when ahead. So, re-raise your KK and AA. You have the equity, so the way to get in the most bets is to re-raise and let your opponent find a raise somewhere.

Edit: In regards to autobetting, I'm pretty sure that it's not that large of an error, if one at all. Assuming you are heads up on the flop, and you are in position, if your opponent checks to you, the pot will usually have about 4.5 SBs in it. If you win it 1/4 times on the flop, you will show an immediate profit. Beyond that, you've become the aggressor in the hand; you might be able to take it down on a later street with aggression, and you'll win at showdown some of the time. You even get a free card on the turn if you want it! Betting is therefore largely correct on the flop; I don't think that this is all that exploitable, except as you noted, you will almost always be able to get a check-raise in, so all of the hands that you defend HU in the big blind gain some implied odds, although if you're dominated...it can get real ugly real quick.

[mach3]

I agree and identify w/ all of the scenarios you mentioned. You can probably add late position raises against the blinds as well. If you check the flop, one of them is betting.

Personally, I prefer to play off their aggression a bit and not show strength until later in a hand. But that's easy when you have a hand. The more challening decisions are when you don't have much and the same is probably true for your opponent. Such blind wars are by far the weakest part of my game and an area I would like to improve.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]

case 1. Blind steal. Someone raises and it's folded to me in the big blind. I know that if I call and check the flop, they will always bet. Because I know this, calling and check-raising is always superior to 3-betting and leading, since my hand is less clearly defined for my opponent, and he's more likely to make big postflop mistakes. That's right, I'm saying you should just call with aces, kings, AK, everything you'd normally 3-bet and lead, instead call and check-raise any time you're heads up.


-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with not 3 betting with AK or AQ is that it makes it less likely that you can take the pot away without hitting the flop. If you 3 bet and lead with overcards on the flop, and possibly lead again on the turn, you can win unimproved. If you fail to 3 bet, then your checkraise is more likely to be called on the flop -- thus leaving you vulnerable to more draws and leaving you spinning as far as what to do on the turn if unimproved.

For this reason, I like to 3 bet with the A, high kicker hands, and call the big pairs.

[damaniac]

Interesting post, esp wrt blind stealing.

My thoughts (since I am currently debating how to do all this stuff HU since i moved to 6-max) have been that, as the PFR HU agains the BB, there will be 4 sb in the pot, so he needs to fold 25% of the time for a bet to be profitable (depending on how often he check-raises if I'm going to call it, then it is more, but then often I will have a good hand as well, so I'm not sure how to adjust that). You're only going to have a pair 32% of the time, plus pocket pairs, plus things like OESD, flush draw, overcards plus bd draws and such, so while you will have lots of flops you like, it certainly won't be 75% of them, so you'll have to check-raise pretty liberally to punish the pfr and make his move less profitable.

I really agree that you should often just call and then check-raise a favorable flop rather than 3-betting and leading. Same amount of money goes in, but you get some control over when you are putting your money in (you can fold terrible flops and check-raise most anything else), and your move looks much stronger to him, so you can get him to fold many live outs or better hands (Ex: I love c/r ing with an A rag rag flop, as when he doesn't have an A, it is very tough to continue with something like KQ, and some players will probably pitch low pp's as well).

Finally, #2 is something I am wrestling with as well. For my first 2k hands or so, everyone folded so darn much that it was probably criminal not to autobet. Lately I've been getting check-raised left and right. Again, you are getting 4:1 on your money vs. the BB, especially if you can fold to a c/r. So autobetting really can't be far from wrong in most situations. But I need help with this too, I hope some more experienced players have better insights than me.

[Nightwish]

Good post.

Let me just deal with the first case, but let me expand it a bit. Let's say someone raises preflop (not necessarily in a stealing position), and it's folded to me in the BB with AA. I will frequently just call, play the flop softly, and then try to get 2 or 3 bets in on the turn (unless the board looks really bad). They almost never suspect a monster like AA and will usually pay you off handsomely.

Of course, none of this applies if it's not HU preflop. In that case, I will 3-bet for value because I am no longer sure that I can make up for this lost preflop value by extracting extra value post-flop.

[MrStretchie]

This exact thing was talked about in the Magazine a while back..

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...kusch0505.html

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you need to re-raise preflop with your strong hands is because your opponent will like the flop some of the time...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you check-raise from the BB on a jack high flop, and your opponent holds AJ, he is much more likely to give you a lot of action than if you 3-bet and lead. If you check-raise this flop, he'll often assume he has the best hand and either 3-bet the flop, or raise the turn. If you 3-bet and lead, he will sometimes just call down. You certainly won't get any less action by check-raising than by 3-betting and leading.

[ QUOTE ]
If you win it 1/4 times on the flop, you will show an immediate profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's possible though that my profit from these bets is offset and then some by the fact that my autobetting allows my opponent to defend more often than he could otherwise. My profit on a successful steal is very high.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with not 3 betting with AK or AQ is that it makes it less likely that you can take the pot away without hitting the flop. If you 3 bet and lead with overcards on the flop, and possibly lead again on the turn, you can win unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see this. If your opponent does not have a pair, check-raising and leading the turn is just as likely to win the pot. And if he'll call down with hands worse than AK, that may be an argument for calling and check-raising, since he'll be paying me off incorrectly.

[elindauer]

Here are a couple more spots I can think of:

1. You bet the flop and turn, only to find yourself check-raised. Most players will bet the river whether they were on a bluff or not, whether their draw got their or not. If you have a hand that might normally be worth a 3-bet, it may be better to just call and then raise the river. Now, if the river completes the draw you fear, you reserve the option to just call and save some money. If your opponent is semibluffing and misses, you'll generally win the same amount, and if he's on a total bluff, you will likely win 1 extra bet.

2. You raise a couple limpers preflop. These players are the "check-to-the-raiser" type, as they expect you to autobet any flop. Don't always take the odds on the steal. Take the free card sometimes. Yes, perhaps your bet is slightly profitable, but you make up for this lost profit by sometimes catching a good turn card, winning you a pot you would have lost had you bet and been check-raised. You also gain a little by their future calls being a little more wrong, as your range of betting hands is a bit better. Finally, this sets you up for the occassional slowplay of a hand that hits the flop so hard, you know nobody else can like it (88 on an 833 flop, eg). If you've checked a flop or two and then folded, you can check this flop and potentially get a lot of money in from players drawing dead.


Good luck.
Eric