11: how bad was this flop push?

#1 12-26-2005, 07:06 PM

Ok, so I was tilting a little.. :> I figured I was probably behind to MP1, but that I had a good chance of being ahead if I could see it to the river. What are some better strategies for playing this hand?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t1480)
MP2 (t1430)
MP3 (t1375)
CO (t1625)
Button (t1560)
SB (t1480)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t1550)
UTG+1 (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t20, 3 folds, Button calls t20, 1 fold, Hero raises to t80, MP1 calls t60, Button calls t60.

Flop: (t250) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t220, MP1 raises to t440, Button folds, Hero raises to t1420, MP1 calls t960 (All-In).

#2 12-26-2005, 07:13 PM

If you like to gamble then its fine I guess... I did the same play in a 180 man sng, I called someones allin and he showed a flush draw with J5 hearts where I had A10 hearts. So gamble if you want to...

sofere · #3 12-26-2005, 07:23 PM

Bet waaay too much on the flop. If you're gonna bet out, I'd say 150 should do the trick. Check-Raising isn't too bad either. Better chance of winning the hand right there with a CR or at least seing the turn for less than all of your chips.

As it stands, you're a coinflip to win this hand and it doesn't look like MP1 is going to fold to your reraise after he raised a pot sized bet. With the deep stacks and given you're line, I would much prefer to call the reraise and take it from there.

async · #4 12-26-2005, 08:03 PM

Well, assuming he's on, say, Jc Jh, probably the most dangerous hand, you're 34.75% to the river, which makes the push about even EV-wise after his raise, assuming you have no FE.

If he's on, say, JhTh, you're up to 44.5% to the river to win, and if he's on AhJh, you are a favorite to win the hand and the push is pretty much mandatory.

When he minraises, you're getting over 4:1 to call, so that's a clear call even without taking into account any sense of implied odds. You should almost certainly call here if he offers 3:1 or better. If you opt to smooth call and you don't catch a K or diamond and you check the turn and he moves in, you'll only be getting 2:1 and be a 3:1 dog to a made hand and should fold unless you think your opponent is on a draw.

That's really the problem, of course: if you don't push, you give a weaker hand (say, 89d) to try to take it away from you.

Since you are getting >4:1 to call, you must call. Your EV from calling is around .25*(the pot after your call), or about 275-300, plus (.25*(whatever you can get your opp to pay off)). Say you feel on average you can extract about 400 more chips if you hit. That means your call is worth 400ish.
Minus your cost to call, that's about 180ish.

If you push, it depends on what hand you are up against, of course. Your EV is something like

((your odds of winning * total pot if he calls) - (1200)) + (odds he folds * 710).

Since this is an 11, let's say there's a 30% chance he's on TT/JJ, a 30% chance he's on TJ, a 30% chance he's on AJ, and a 10% chance he's on something weaker like 89d. I'm just doing this in my head, but say that's around 41% total chance for you to actually with the hand against a caller. Let's say he folds 25% of the time, often with a very weak holding, and other times folding something like AJ because he realizes he's either a small favorite or a big dog. So our formula becomes:

((.41 * 3000) - 1200) + (.25*710)

If the hand ranges are correct, you're about ev neutral and your value comes only from the FE. So your +chip value is about 175.

So a call and a push are both +EV, and if you buy into my estimates for hand ranges, fold equity, and the amount he pays off when you hit, they're about equally +EV, in terms of chips. I'd say if you think you're a better player than most at the table, then you probably want to just call and reduce your variance, as the big stack you get from winning in a push confrontation is not as important to you, and the calling method does not risk busting out early.

ZBTHorton · #5 12-26-2005, 08:23 PM

This looks pretty good to me.

I sometimes check-raise these flops, because I know all my chips are getting in on the flop w/ any kind of action.

Sorry it didn't work out for ya.

ravensfan · #6 12-26-2005, 08:24 PM

Since you have position, i don't mind calling and checking the turn if an Ace or Q hits. How would everyone else play the turn if an A or Q hit?

Pushing isn't so bad, i figure you probably have to be a favorite, and it makes it easier when he bet out on AJ or who knows, K2diamonds, 89, KK, etc... On all of these you are the favorite (although on KK, you can have either 13 or 14 outs, which make you a reasonable favorite since it's based on 45 cards). Basically, you're pushing $1200 to win $3100, and you're probably about a 55% favorite. Assuming you're 55% favorite, your EV is 3100*.55 = 1705 or $500ish. If you're 50-50, your expected return is $1550, or $350 if he calls. Sometimes, he might fold, i know i've folded after being reraised.

Besides, don't you have a chance for a royal flush?!

async · #7 12-26-2005, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Pushing isn't so bad, i figure you probably have to be a favorite, and it makes it easier when he bet out on AJ or who knows, K2diamonds, 89, KK, etc... On all of these you are the favorite (although on KK, you can have either 13 or 14 outs, which make you a reasonable favorite since it's based on 45 cards). Basically, you're pushing $1200 to win $3100, and you're probably about a 55% favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heros odds vs:

KhKd: 48%
JhJd: 34%
JhTc: 45%
TcTs: 34%
AhKh: 54%
AhAc: 46%

The only way hero is >50% is if villain is on one pair with less than an ace kicker. (like, vs KT, 58%)

Not that hero needs to be a favorite for a push to be +EV, but he is probably not a favorite.