Troubling decison playing a trash hand early in low buyin mtt

[kuro]

5 + 0.50 MTT
Blinds 100/200 130/150 people left (10 handed)

Relative Stacks from memory after posting the blinds:
SB: Hero - 7500
BB: very aggressive donk - 6000
UTG+1: tight passive - 8000
Co: tight passive - 9000

Preflop : Hero dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1 fold, UTG+1 limps, 4 folds, Co limps, 1 fold, Hero in SB completes, BB Checks.

Flop : (t800) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, and Co bets 200.
Hero raises to 1000, BB raises all-in to 6000, UTG+1 raises all-in to 7800, Co calls 7600, Hero ?

[yvesaint]

fold your outs are no good

looks like JQ so i'd say you only have 9 outs twice (and maybe someone even has a higher flush draw, how knows)

the check raise on a semi-bluff seems like a really expensive move, especially with live players still to act and a dangerous draw heavy board

[Pasterbator]

you need runner runner straight flush to win. Fold

[kuro]

I used to think this was an easy fold. However, I'm getting 3.43:1 pot odds. So I only need about 23% equity in the hand to come out even money. There's also the added ev of likely having the biggest stack at the table for some time to come and the impact on blind stealing.

So it comes down to if my flush draw is good enough to justify calling. At a higher buyin MTT I think you could count on someone having the flush draw with all of the action a high percentage of the time. But in these low buyin s people cannot fold TPTK, gutshot draws, and straight draws when there are flush draws on the board. There's also the advantage of not wasting 2 hours grinding out a short stack only to bust on the bubble.

So I called and BB flipped over J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], UTg+1 had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and Co had J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] which according to pokerstove gave me 38.049% equity in the hand which meant that it was a very good call in this case.

However, if I'd ran into a higher flush draw (say UTG+1 had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) then my equity goes down to only 10.34%. and if my flush draw and straight draws are no good then I'm looking at only 0.24% equity.

So I'm still confused about what the right play is against bad players because I just don't know how to tell how often my flush draw is no good.

[petvan]

The question seems like how do you predict the play of the unpredictable. Personally, I think you play tighter. I can't see calling here myself.

P

[Sam T.]

Given the level of the buy-in, I think the first mistake you made is the check-raise into three villains.

In general, they simply don't know to fold. If three guys have put money into the pot, one of them is willing to go to felt with mediocre hands. You WILL have to hit your draw to win the hand.

For this hand, I don't like the CR with this kind of coordinated flop. With three other limpers, chances are good that someone caught a piece of it, and it may well have smacked somebody very hard. JTo is going to call you down here, and you don't want that.

As for calling down I really don't think it's a good idea. With all this action I don't wouldn't count any of your club outs, and it looks like someone either has or is drawing to the higher straight. If you're lucky, someone hit a set, and even then there's the boat to think about.

Yuck.

Best,

Sam

[Matador225]

Easy fold. It is likely someone already has the straight and I think its pretty likely that someone has a higher flush draw than you. I think this is one situation where you have to throw away your great pot odds and not think twice about it.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to think this was an easy fold. However, I'm getting 3.43:1 pot odds. So I only need about 23% equity in the hand to come out even money. There's also the added ev of likely having the biggest stack at the table for some time to come and the impact on blind stealing.


[/ QUOTE ]


That equity you're figuring out is after seeing all 5 cards, and includes times you have the best hand w/ like a pair of 4's, times when you won't be aggressive w/ your hand and won't actually win. PF equity when you're nto going all in is really useless.

You're 29:1 against to make two pair or better w/ non-suited, non-connectors... But since you have a suited 3 gapper i guess the odds would be a bit better in your favor, but not too dramatically.. probably like 20:1.

That said, i probably complete this PF, but i'm not so sure you should.

[kuro]

I'm talking about the equity of calling 3 all-ins with this board which means that I do get to see the remaining 2 cards. It comes down to if my non nut flush / non nut straight draw provide me with enough outs often enough against bad players here to call given the pot odds given that I'm willing to take a completely ev neutral or maybe slightly ev negative bet given the benefit of having a big stack.