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#1
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Value Bet?
Utg +1 only 3rd hand at table. BB LP over about 40 hands.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls. Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, CO calls. Turn: (7.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds. River: (10.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?? |
#2
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Re: Value Bet?
I would probably check the river, river could be exactly what one of them has been waiting for completing flush draws and a couple of straight draws.
(At the same time I'd be very tempted to bet for value with the high set =) |
#3
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Re: Value Bet?
Bet/call.
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#4
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Re: Value Bet?
for the love of all mothers, bet.
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#5
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Re: Value Bet?
The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?".
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#6
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Re: Value Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
The question here is not "Do I bet?", but rather "Do I call a raise?". [/ QUOTE ] Okay, I'll say out the outset I think not value betting when scare cards hit may be a consistent leak in my game. In two hours of play last night, in three or four instances I checked the river against one or two opponents, it was checked behind, and I took the pot down. If half of those people would have called, that's a big bet an hour leak. So I'm re-evaluating this a lot right now........ BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? Probably something like a J-10 that went inproved to two pair on the river. Maybe an AJ if it was a passive player. But a set would have fought on the turn and the river given the draws that are out there. I think the odds of being called and winning are less than 50%. I think even faced with a raise I'd pay to see the cards when holding top set. So the times we're unsuccessful will cost us two bets. For me, this is a check-call situation. Now, re-evaluating my value betting, I'm totally open to flaws in this analysis. EDIT: just woke up......didn't notice the player was closing the action. This makes it closer to a bet. But I'm still not sure who would call without having us beat. |
#7
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Re: Value Bet?
This seems like a pretty easy check behind. Two significant draws came in on the river. You'll hate to call a check raise wont you?
Nick |
#8
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Re: Value Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? [/ QUOTE ] Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close. |
#9
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Re: Value Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? [/ QUOTE ] Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close. [/ QUOTE ] PokerBob nailed it, although *we* don't see what an opponent can call with here and lose, they are infinitely more creative than us. Value bet here, call raise, not close. |
#10
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Re: Value Bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BUT: Looking at this board, given the lack of action on earlier streets, what hand out there would call a value bet but wouldn't raise you and beat you? [/ QUOTE ] Any pair. A retarded 2-pair. Sometimes Ace-high. IMO betting this river is +EV, and I don't think it is close. [/ QUOTE ] PokerBob nailed it, although *we* don't see what an opponent can call with here and lose, they are infinitely more creative than us. Value bet here, call raise, not close. [/ QUOTE ] Let's change it aroud a bit. Say you were out of position, and were leading the betting instead of being checked to then called. Would you still lead out on the river? |
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