winning small pots, losing the big ones.

CaptainCrunch · #1 09-15-2005, 03:53 AM

For about a month now, I've noticed this happeneing more and more. I'm getting dealt the same variation of cards as one would expect, and winning and losing what seems to be the expected proportion of them. But what is just draining my bankroll right out is that when I have the raising pf hands, I raise, and its either folded back to me, or I get 1 caller who folds my flop bet. However, when I get callers, or even people raising back to me and the pot grows, I invariably lose those hands. Its not as simple as me doing or not doing 1 thing. (like Miller's admonition not to fold on the river for 1 bet) its just the sum combination of possible bad turns that bite me. I mean, I look in my PT database, and all of my wins are 2-4 bb, while the losses are as much as 10.

As for what I'm doing about it, well, I've reread SSHE 2 times weekly for the last month. I've (I believe) improved my application of pot odds to my play, and siezed some more opportunities for agression that I used to miss. I post more hands. I pour over posted hands and try to wrest information out of them. Beyond that, I feel its out of my control.
Players rated as calling stations inexplicably fold to any move I make, players I've watched and feel I've got a read on suddenly reveal themselves as TAGs. I'm frustrated, and I'm just not sure if its something I'm doing or not, or just the statistics being unkind all at once.

Hell, I don't even know if I should post this at all.

here's some poker content.

Villain is 16/8/1.23 over 40 hands

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (24 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

I'm beat, I know it, guess I'm going to call it down?
Turn: (18 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.
Or should I just fold here.

Final Pot: 23 BB

Villain is 30/3.2/.56 over 54 hands.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Gritting my teeth, prepared to see the lowest possible clubs in his hand.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

And yes, I've dropped back down to .5/1 as of this posting. Full ring. I found the 6 max was magnifying this suck-fest. Other than that, I don't know what else to do.

aces_dad · #2 09-15-2005, 04:21 AM

I don't want to just be a cheerleader but you seem smart enought from your posts that you can beat the low limit games at party if you keep up your replies first and posts second to this forum. We all get bad beats and it sucks. In general if your PFR are getting too much respect you need to raise more not less and if the table is truly too tight find another one.

For the second hand I think you played it fine. For the first one, I also think it was fine, though if you're going to fold it's on the turn not the river. If you feel you're beat or even if villian has AK the turn K is a scarier card than the river 7.

aK13 · #3 09-15-2005, 04:26 AM

I like a 3bet on the river in hand 2 unless you know he's passive.

EDIT: Just saw the PT stats. Would a 30 VPIP guy really be chasing running clubs?

aces_dad · #4 09-15-2005, 04:35 AM

Wouldn't the AF number (which is pretty small) be more relevant to the river action than the VPIP?

CaptainCrunch · #5 09-15-2005, 05:42 AM

Thanks. So more replies to posts here, right. Will do.
Raise more? Something along the lines of suited Aces down to 8 or 7, from MP? Suited or Unsuited Broadways?

I think I need to loosen up some of my PF Calling too. Well, From the blinds at least. Its annoying to discover that they guy who PFR'd is a maniac after I've folded a winning hand. (Too results oriented, I know, but how many short term results does it take to add up into a long term trend?)

I'm approaching 30k hands now, and up to 16-19k or so I guess I was just running good. The 1st 10k were firmly my "Newb" hands, before anything past "Aces good" came into my play. heh. But since aug 1, so a month and a half now, the "No Big Pots" rule has been in effect. Every single online session since then has been negative. I mean, I'll win a couple good ones, but lose that lead almost immediately to one thing or another and then the rest of the buy in follows.

Yaknow. The forward in SSHE has it too right. The bit about the feedback in hold em being utterly nonlinear. Do everything exactly right, and still lose. I think there is some entrenched deep part of my brain thats just screaming at the wrongness of that.

I know how tedious all this is going to sound to the long term poker players. Hey, I've been playing since Feb. this year. This is the first deep downturn I've seen (previously they've been polite enough to pack up after a week or so) so I've yet to build up the scar tissue for it. And its hard to heal up when the wound is still being made. Oh well.

Ok. Officially moving back down to .5/1

and yeah, he was chasing with 26c. (eyeroll)

@bsolute_luck · #6 09-15-2005, 06:35 AM

i guess the pot is too big to fold that turn in hand #1?