AKs HU

mojobluesman · #1 09-09-2005, 03:41 PM

I was either tied or beaten by a high pair, but I had backdoors and two overcards on the flop and a flush draw on the turn. So a call seemed fine on those streets.

On the river there was 8.75 in the pot that I had a chance of splitting if he also had AK and was betting it.

These beat me.

6 JJ, 6 QQ, 3 KK, 3 AA = 18 hands

9 AK are a tie.

So for a dollar, a call seemed at least reasonable call.

Question #1

Was this river call OK?

Question #2

Should I have raised somewhere along the line to try to get a free river or at least find out where I was? If so, when?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

jrz1972 · #2 09-09-2005, 03:44 PM

The river call seems okay.

I'm definitely not raising anywhere post-flop. At least in my experience, this is more likely to beget a 3-bet than it is to get a free card or free showdown. For instance, let's say you raise the flop and get reraised. You're presumably calling that. You're not folding the turn, but you could probably fold the river. So you spend 1 BB on the flop to save 1 BB on the river and you didn't get to showdown.

@bsolute_luck · #3 09-09-2005, 04:01 PM

if you're going to raise anywhere it is on the turn. HUSH guys seem to use this "move" often, but they do things different up there, so that is merely a thought.

gharp · #4 09-09-2005, 04:22 PM

Calling is OK if you know UTG will fire the last barrel with unimproved overcards. A read is very helpful -- some players will do this, some won't (I think most won't, outside of 6-max). It's a close decision.

If you're going to raise, it should be on the turn. If he just called your raise and checked the river you could check behind. If you improve you can bet again. You'll likely only get 3-bet (on the turn) by hands that are beating you (AA/KK) and you will be forced to call to chase your flush. But that's great if you improve because you can raise again on the river. When you don't improve, you can fold the river with confidence (though you've now lost an extra BB).

So, if you'll allow me to get all DavidC on you, I'll try to figure the EV of raising vs. calling:

Assume:
- UTG will always bet the river if you call
- UTG will always pay off your raise if you hit
- UTG will 3-bet you some % (X) of the time on the turn, and you'll fold the river then if you don't improve

A flush draw will come in by the river 20% of the time (~18% really, but 20% is close enough).

So:

EV(calling down) = 80%*(-2BB) + 20%(+3BB) = -1
EV(raising) = 80%*((X%*(-3BB)) + (1-X%)*(-2BB)) + 20%*((X%*(5BB) + (1-X%)*(3BB)
= <massive simplification> 9/5*(x-8/9)

so:
EV(raising) > EV(calling) ==> 9/5x - 8/5 > -1 ==> x > 1/3

This would imply that if there's more than a 33% chance that he'll 3-bet you, you should raise the turn. This seems counterintuitive to me (you want to get 3-bet!?) but I think it's true given the assumptions. Also, in the real world, he probably won't call your raise on the river every time, but you'll also sometimes improve to top pair to beat QQ or TT.

Thoughts?

@bsolute_luck · #5 09-09-2005, 04:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you'll allow me to get all DavidC on you

[/ QUOTE ]

buwwaaahaa! i hope he reads this thread [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

macdaddy991 · #6 09-09-2005, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]

These beat me.

6 JJ, 6 QQ, 3 KK, 3 AA = 18 hands

9 AK are a tie.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there are a few hands that still beat you, TT-88 if villan is aggressive. AJ, KJ, and QJ if villan is super aggressive.

[ QUOTE ]

So for a dollar, a call seemed at least reasonable call.

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IMO, this is a terrible reason IN ITSELF to make a call. If there are other factors then that makes the call different.

Redd · #7 09-09-2005, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you're going to raise anywhere it is on the turn. HUSH guys seem to use this "move" often, but they do things different up there, so that is merely a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO raising this turn is no good because we need to call a 3-bet and we're not necessarily showing down.

crownjules · #8 09-09-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think there are a few hands that still beat you, TT-88 if villan is aggressive. AJ, KJ, and QJ if villan is super aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. You can do the EV breakdown all you want, but it will be seriously flawed if you do not account for Villain's raising tendencies, of which we were given nothing.

@bsolute_luck · #9 09-09-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you're going to raise anywhere it is on the turn. HUSH guys seem to use this "move" often, but they do things different up there, so that is merely a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO raising this turn is no good because we need to call a 3-bet and we're not necessarily showing down.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get this point. if he has UI overcards, he's not 3-betting, AA-QQ are the only hands that might 3-bet. most won't fearing a slowplayed set. plus if he does, it doesn't matter, we should fold the river UI anyways, so it costs the same.

deception5 · #10 09-09-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
IMO raising this turn is no good because we need to call a 3-bet and we're not necessarily showing down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising this turn isn't bad. We might fold AK and win a pot we would have split and we have 10 possible outs to improve when behind. Sometimes we'll lose an extra bet when behind but sometimes we'll gain an extra bet when we improve. I can't find it right now, but I think HEPFAP has almost this exact example (suited AK in position heads up where he talks about semi-bluff raising).