River Play (live 5-5 NL)

[The Ocho]

Foxwoods 5-5 nl. The game is a very good (read: loose) must-move. I usually play the smaller NL game and beat it soundly so tonight I'm rolling the dice and taking a shot at the bigger game. I'm kinda intimidated by the stakes so I buy in for only $500, which is a little bit below average for the table.

This hand is early in the session (only about 7-8 hands in)

44 on the button (still have about $500), 3 limpers to me, I toss in an abe lincoln and the blinds check. We take the flop 6-handed.

Flop (pot $30) : Q 4 3 rainbow (Shweeeeeeeeet)
BB leads for 20, folded around to me. I make it 60, SB passes and BB calls pretty quickly. He has me covered and seems to be an average player (no really reliable read because only a couple hands into session)

Turn (pot $150) : 9 (rainbow now complete, double shweeeet)
BB checks. I bet $75 and BB calls again, fairly quickly.

River (pot $300) : Deuce (hmmmmm...)
BB thinks for a couple seconds, fingers his chips, then checks. I...

What do you folks think should I do on the river here? Also, any thoughts on all other streets appreciated. I'll post my thoughts, what I did, and the results later.

[LA_Price]

bet half to the full pot. Whatever you think he'll call. The fact that he fingered his chips means he doesn't really wan't you to bet but he may still payoff a bet. bet the pot on every street so bet less on the flop and more on the turn.

[Ulysses]

I think your about half-pot raise on the flop is fine. But I'd probably bet a little more on the turn. Maybe $100. I don't think there's anything too wrong w/ half-pot on that board, though.

On the river, he either had 56 or he didn't. With about $350 left, if you bet say $150 on the river and he pushes, I think you're committed. Unless I had a fantastic read that he had 56 (or A5, I guess), I'd bet $200 on the river, planning to call an all-in.

[The Ocho]

FWIW, the chip-fingering thing at the end was not the standard lame posturing that many mediocre players do so that I wouldn't bet. It just felt different, in the category with the unconscious impulse to look at one's chips after nailing a huge flop. I actually believed he wanted to bet here, but checked instead. Thusly, I felt like a check-raise was a distinct possibility. The duece was certainly a card that could have helped him given the play of the hand.

As to my flop bet, I made it 60 to go in a pot of 50, which is barely more than the pot. Just fine imo. Plus a raise of 30 more after a bet of 20 is dangerously close to a min-raise, a play I hate to make under most circumstances.

Turn bet: I tried to price it so that he wouldn't quite be getting odds to call for a straight draw, but not so much that he'd fold that draw (if he has one) or a queen. I want more of his money in the pot here.

I'll describe my river play later after more responses
thanks for the words

[Ulysses]

FYI, a pot-raise on the flop is a raise to 90.

[theBruiser500]

I'd bet whatever I thought he'd call. He might have a straight, but might not. Probably not... too often I psych myself out in situations like this, I'd bet and if he raised, call (you'd be pretty pot comitted).

[TomCollins]

You can always overbet the pot and push all in as well, sometimes players sense this as a weak move trying to steal the pot, and will call with a lot worse than if you make a pot sized bet. It might be worth a try.

[The Ocho]

Thanks for the replies. Sounds like I played the flop and turn ok for the most part. My bets may have been a little high or low for you fellas but no real mistakes.

My river play: I thought for a bit and then checked. Before I start to get flamed for being weak, I'd like to explain my reasoning.

Argmuent for a check here: First of all, I don't see much value in a bet here. As I see it, there are only two hands that this player (an average player) could have given the play of the hand, either 56 or a mediocre queen. He didn't come after me on the flop or turn so two pair or a set is highly unlikely (unless the 2 hit for a Q2?). So my final read was either a mediocre queen or a rivered straight. If I make a decent sized value bet ($150-$200), I feel like an average player would not call with just a queen (perhaps this is where I'm mis-judging his play?). Perhaps he may call an all-in with the queen as TCollins suggested but given I had no line on his play at this time I didn't think that move woul be prudent. So, he would muck the hand I beat. And if he check-raises all in, I'm beat nearly every time (what else could he possibly check-raise me with?) but I'm still committed enough where I have to call with my short stack. Not my favorite situation. Plus, like I said in my intro, this game was a bit out of my comfort zone, so I was playing a bit more of a stack-preservation midset than usual and not pushing edges as hard as I usually do.

Results: I checked, roll over my set o' fours, and they're good. He flashes a queen as he folds.

Aftermath: The table is shocked I didn't bet the river. They figure I must only bet the nuts. (which I guess isn't too far off given my play of the hand [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). I manage to steal a couple decent sized pots in the next hour with large turn and river with semi-large value-looking bets, and book a nice win for the session.

[The Ocho]

wait, are you saying 20+20+50 is NOT equal to 70?!?!?!

Denominator... carry the 6... cube it... take the second derivative...

Ah dammit... I'm a moron. Thanks for pointing that out.

[NLfool]

if he puts 60 on the flop he'll give you more than 75 on the turn. You need to bet 100+ on the turn he'll call it to