3/6 top set, am I still raising?

[Burdzthewurd]

Button is terrible-loose, no real info on other players. Should I fear 63 or 68 here and just call turn bet, or pop it up to make lows and straight draws pay? I'd feel sick seeing a 3-bet here. Probably a stupid question, so feel free to restate that in reply.

3/6 LO8 (Stars)

UTG calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB raises, I call with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB, UTG calls, Button calls

Flop J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise, UTG calls, Button calls, SB 3-bets, I cap, everyone calls

Turn 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
SB bets, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Burdz - Raise. There's too much already in the pot to do anything else. Your object is to knock out anyone with a weak straight or weak straight draw. A raise from you at least decreases the favorable odds anybody has to draw here. if your raise fails to knock out CO or Button, and if SB re-raises, then just call the re-raise.

Buzz

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB bets, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Burdz - Raise. There's too much already in the pot to do anything else. Your object is to knock out anyone with a weak straight or weak straight draw. A raise from you at least decreases the favorable odds anybody has to draw here. if your raise fails to knock out CO or Button, and if SB re-raises, then just call the re-raise.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't disagree with the raise here even though the top set may in fact be the one now on a draw. What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps? Call 2 here or [yuk], fold?

[chaos]

You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
You would call 2 more. It isn't even close.

There were already 12 BB in the pot before the turn. If it is capped three handed, it will cost you 2 to win 22. You have 10 outs to fill up or make quads and there are 44 unseen cards. So you are getting 11 to 1 on a 3.4 to 1 draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chaos, first thanks for responding. Second, I'm not sure the scenario where the trip jacks win 22 for an investment of 2 is likely to occur since that hand is already counterfeited for low. It is unlikely, IMO, for that hand to scoop both halves at this point given the fact that the turn is being capped. Won't it cost that hand 2 to win 11 (5.5:1)? The draw still appears to be +EV but not quite as good as previously reported.

[Buzz]

Hi Beernutz - Nice picture.

[ QUOTE ]
even though the top set may in fact be the one now on a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is indeed on a draw, and only playing for half the pot.

Hero does not have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot. Hero's only getting a one-to-one pay off on fresh money.

But even though two different straights are already possible, Hero would greatly increase his chances to win half the pot by knocking out an opponent.

Thus Hero's raise wouldn't be a value bet. Hero's raise would purely be an attempt to intimidate an opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps?

[/ QUOTE ]

You call the double bet. You have favorable odds to call the double bet.

If the betting gets capped behind you, the raise will have been a failure, but if hero just called in the first place, Hero would have been facing a double bet anyway. (Indeed it's more likely there will be a double raise behind Hero if Hero just calls).

If Hero raised and the betting was capped behind him, Hero would be getting something in the neighborhood of seven to one half-pot odds to call the cap. Since the odds against the board pairing on the river, from Hero's vantage point, are about four to one (against), Hero would clearly have favorable odds to call the double re-raise - and that's not even figuring Hero's implied half-pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if for example you raise, UTG 3 bets, and SB caps? Call 2 here or [yuk], fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd call. Because of the size of the pot, you'd have favorable odds to call. (way, way, way more favorable than you'd need).

Buzz

[Ironman]

Ok...I agree with the raise on the turn. Hopefully it knocks some of the others out here. You really don't want more than two people seeing the river if you can help it.

If the others come along, you are in a tough spot and will need to improve on the river.

Dave

[DyessMan89]

Given the situation you are in, you HAVE to raise the turn. This is the only hope you have to get the drawing hands out, and to see where your at.

BTW, I might have played this flop a bit differently. When I have nut hands that are extremley vunerable, I often times play the flop slow ... pray for a good turn card to hit, and if it does ... then I get aggressive. This maskes your hand a bit, and should lose you much less when you get outdrawn. Im not sure I would have done that on this hand, though.

[Ironman]

Dyess,

I agree with you on the slow play, but I think it just leaves me vulnerable to getting outplayed and needing a draw to make money.

I understand though. I do it a lot. But I think there is a better way. That's why I put my vote in for the raise in this situation.

Dave

[chaos]

I think you need to raise the turn. You want to drive out the players behind you. There are a lot of scary river cards for you. The less opponents you have, the less likely that someone will make a straight on the river. If players cold call your raise you still can win high if the board pairs, filling you up.

In multiway pots, sets are usually drawing hands because of all the straight possibilities.