($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

[curtains]

tigerite, I know people might call with 99-TT...my basic point is that I always like to determine whats the situation in a worst case scenario first..like if the ranges are all supertight...tighter than tehy usually would be. This is important for a few reasons:

1. It can prove to you that one play is wrong....for instance if pushing JJ is +EV even if all of our opponents play perfectly after we push, then obviously folding is incorrect.

2. It can help you understand how to play in higher limit games where some players are that tight or at least where it's more reasonable to assume so. I wouldn't consider the $215s to be like this, but with certain players making that raise it would be, and it could be closer to reality in a $400+ buyin on Party.


So first...lets make a relatively tight reasonable range for the first player, and then assume they play perfectly to our allin (although they fold all AQ hands because thats too absurd). Then we slowly make their range a bit wider after solving for the first case, until we get a good feel for whats really going on in such situations.

[tigerite]

Okay then. I'll see what I can do.

[curtains]

I'd work on it myself but umm Ive gotta goto bed in a few minutes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[curtains]

btw Im workin on it.

[tigerite]

So am I, got all the chip counts for ICM now.

[curtains]

Ok, my math...assuming he has the tightest possible range (99+ and AJ+), and assuming no one will call behind you (which should happen like 10-15% minimum) is as follows:

Chip EV = 855. This leaves us -30 from where we began the hand. This is a relatively small amount of EV to be down IMO, against a player with such unrealistically tight standards. I am too lazy to do the work, but I suspect that just adding 88 to the mix would make it +EV. Also note that this system assumes that our opponents call perfectly (except fold with AQs+AQ). That means they will fold TT+99 always.

Anyway after doing this math, hopefully accurately, I'm not really convinced one way or another that moving allin is correct. Too many bozos will raise with A5s there, but many of them will limp too, and will limp with stuff like 99, AQ etc. I'd like some others to back my work up though because I don't usually do this stuff by hand.

In a $215 against an opponent that I recognize as tight, I suspect that moving allin here with JJ is simply a clear -EV play, especially with the prospect of calls behind you by QQ+

[tigerite]

This is as far as I have got so far

0.085 * (5/6) * 0.8 = 0
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.8 = 0.0541

0.065 * (5/6) * 0.44 = 0
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.44 = 0.0541

0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1843
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1847
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.085 * (1/6) * 0.2 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1843
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1847
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1429 (small stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1811 (big stack calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1823 (sb calls)
0.065 * (1/6) * 0.56 = 0.1807 (bb calls)

[curtains]

Awesome you did the stuff after the hero! I was too lazy...anyway time for bed for real now, see ya!

[tigerite]

Ok got the no overcall bit and if he really is raising 99+,AJ+ and only calls QQ+,AK+ then curtains is right

No overcall
0.85

evF Push/fold 0.1083
evL Push/lose 0
evW Push/win 0.176

Assume raising with 99+,AJ+

6 ways for 99,TT,QQ,KK,AA = 30
1 way for JJ = 1
16 ways for AK,AQ = 32
8 ways for AJ = 8
Total = 71 / 1225 = 5.8%

Assume calls with QQ+,AK+

6 ways for QQ,KK,AA = 18
16 ways for AK = 16
Total = 34 / 1225 = 2.8%

Therefore
Re-raise fold % rrF = 0.517
Re-raise push/win % rrW = 0.3619 (against QQ+,AK+)

So..
(rrF * evF) + ((1 - rrF) * evL * (1 - rrW)) + ((1 - rrF) * evW * rrW)

0.85 * [ (0.517 * 0.1083) + (0.483 * 0 * 0.6381) + (0.483 * 0.176 * 0.3619) ]

= 0.85 * [ 0.0559911 + 0 + 0.0307643952 ]
= 0.85 * [ 0.0867554952 ]

0.0867554952 is already less than EV/fold which is 0.0935.

[tigerite]

So it seems my original assumption that him folding more is actually bad for you was right. I thought it was a bit strange how the higher his fold % got, the looser his range had to become but looking at this maths again it makes perfect sense.