88 against a weird guy

[milesdyson]

played this about an hour ago. 2/4 bet365 - if you've never played there the games break up quickly and usually go through the following phases:

1. 6-handed. 3 50/30 lags, 1 25/15 tag, 1 40/0 retard, and you.
2. tag gets owned, table coaches it up. decides to quit. now we're 5-handed.
3. one lag gives the other his money, types "bs" and leaves. 4-handed.
4. 40/0 retard tells you "nice river" when you catch an ace on the river with AK. he leaves. 3-handed, you and two lags.
5. 3 tags sit down at the empty seats. table average vpip is around 30 only because of the lags. 6-handed.
6. one of the remaining lag busts. types "F U." 5-handed.
7. last lag tells everyone to stop just playing AK and tells us how much he made tonight. 4-handed.
8. two tags leave. you're heads up feeding the rake vs. a decent opponent on terrible software.

we had just hit phase 5.

villain here is a strange fellow. after 50 hands he's around 35/15/1, and i played this hand with him before:

i raise ATo utg. all fold to him in BB, he 3-bets. flop KT4, he check calls. turn T he check folds. did he 3-bet me with a tiny pair? AQ? AJ? i've also seen him donk into preflop raisers and then check fold the turn after they just call his flop bet (this may be useful for discussion/analysis of the hand below). basically, i think he's really dumb and weak. so,

i raise 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] utg.

fold fold fold fold he 3-bets in the big blind again. i call (cap?)

FLOP: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5 small bets)
he bets, i raise (?), he calls.

TURN: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10.5 small bets, 5.25 big bets)
he checks, i do what the funk?

so originally my plan was to try to elicit a fold out of him by raising the flop and betting the turn. but now i will have to call a check raise with my gutshot/set outs. does this change my plan?

or was my plan bad from the get go (ie. raising the flop)?

[gonzopro]

Based on your read, I think the turn strengthened your plan. You still are likely to be ahead. He's still dumb and weak. You could fold UI on the river if he 3 bets the turn. If he called the turn you could value bet his ass if a blank hit. But when the 5 falls on the river you will cap it and get phase 6 out of the way and move on to phase 7 when he shows down AK.

[LoaferGee12]

I'm not sure I like the flop raise. Is it because you think he's going to check the turn so you might as well get the bet out of him on the flop? I guess I could understand that. However, given the nature of this board I still think you should just be calling down here. An ace is likely, but he also could have KQ/KJ/ some other broadway hand or a low PP. I play this WA/WB and just call down, betting if checked to.

[milesdyson]

but i worry that he will find a call down with other middle pairs if i show no aggression. i am really trying to get him to fold pocket pairs better than mine here. i also do not want him to continue with KQ/KJ here, since the pot is getting large and he will have 6 outs to beat me.

[istewart]

lol @ your phase breakdown.

[adsman]

I bet the Turn. I play this as if I've got an overpair. I'm just going to make believe that the Ace is in fact a 2 and play it from there.

I think capping PF in position is good HU, particularly given the circumstances of the other hand (i.e. he may over-protect his BB or be willing to peel and fold the turn if he misses).