q10s, river flush meets giant c/r

I think he's holding the Ace of diamonds with something either a 2 or 7 (non-diamond). He saw a good opportunity to bluff holding the Ad, knowing you could not have the nuts. Still a little scary to push. I think I'd just call. If you push and he has you beat, that sucks.

Enjoy Life!

I think you guys are missing a lot of value not pushing in this spot.

I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villian's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both. I find some passive players check call with 2 pair or a set and then put a big bet on the river sometimes. I wouldn't rule out something he made earlier in the board than the river card. Given that he puts money in the pot preflop 73% preflop of the time he could have just about anything for two pair j7, j9, 79.

all possibilities for a flush: 36 ways
you beat: 21
you lose to: 15

Of course some of the low hands he is not going to limp because he folds outright about 27% of the time preflop. As a rough estimate let's take out the bottom 27% of the flushes possible. 27% * 36 = ~10. And let's take out AsKs since he would probably raise preflop.
so...
you beat: 11
you lose to: 14

If you assumed he had the flush (read) you look to be a slight underdog to be winning. But if you think other hands are possible then this is worth at least a call.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming that the 1.23 in the stats is the villain's aggression factor. 1.23 means a good amount of calling relative to betting. This may mean he calls too often or he is passive or both.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure this is true with a VPiP of 70+. It looks pretty aggressive to me, but I am not a mathematician. Perhaps someone will enlighten me.

[stu-unger]

i push. i think that someone who raises that much raises Axs most times, and i can just see so many smaller flushes playing this way along w/ whatever else a donk might have here and still call...

I think the aggression factor = bet+raise/call
So folds don't come into play and i don't think it matters how many hands you play. It only matters what the ratio between your betting and raising and your calling.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
i push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that all the sensible TAG's are in MSNL, we are left with all the high variance maniac's down here in SSNL. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I still think a call is correct here. Pot is a boring $7.25 when the river card is dealt. I hit my hand and get $30 more out of villian, I am happy with that. I don't have the nuts, I don't have the second nuts. There's a nice chance Hero loses this hand. No sense in shelling out an extra $30 when you don't have too.

Let me ask all the maniac pushers this question: If, instead of c/r'ing, Villian led into Hero for $30 on the river, how many of you would advocate pushing then? Most of you would probably be folding in that spot. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Reef]

push and hope he doesn't show a better hand. I expect to win ~ 4/5 of the time. He could show a str8, some weird 2 pr, set, or baby flush.

[wdeadwyler]

Logically, I think I have to call, because I am good more than 50% of the time, and following that logic, wouldnt a push be correct, since he is not laying down two pair or better?