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#13
12-02-2005, 08:26 AM
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Re: AA
You've played with her alot so I guess you have the confidence necessary to make this laydown. What did you put her on after the flop? Why did you think your river bet would likely not be raised? I play this a little more conservatively, but I also don't know your opponenet.
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#15
12-02-2005, 11:51 AM
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Re: AA
I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy.
If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot. I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet. I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about.
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#16
12-02-2005, 12:04 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
I think that is perfect, even if she thinks you are crazy. If you are going to put a bet in on the river, I think betting and folding is superior to check-calling especially against a passive player and a board like that. If she is bluffing or raising a pair of aces on that river, she deserves that pot. I think checking and calling is like flushing 80 dollars down the toilet. Betting and folding is like flushing less than 80 dollars down the toilet. I'm not sure about these meta game considerations that Death Donkey is talking about. [/ QUOTE ] What hands can she have on the river that Dave can value bet with, especially when she's passive and 4-bet preflop and 5-bet the flop? If a bet is going in it's a check-call because then I can consider at least some chance of her having AA -- given her lack of a turn raise it's 3:1 in favor of KK, but I only need her to be betting AA one in 8.5 times for a check-call to be the best play. I don't think I'm ahead close to 55% of the time that I bet and am called by a notably passive player on this river, even when I'm a crazy asian with a tie wrapped around my head -- but I do think she'll bet AA when checked to, because in general, that's what people do. So I really don't see a check-call as throwing money away at all. Actually I think a bet-call might be worse here but someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. rob
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#17
12-02-2005, 12:43 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim
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#18
12-02-2005, 12:47 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] someone's gonna have to explain to me what being asian really does for your image. [/ QUOTE ] Typically, asians are tossed into one of two buckets: 1) extremely conservative and probably wouldn't be at the table in the first place, 2) GAAAAAAMBOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL! - Jim [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, I know. I was just trying to elucidate the fact that I don't think it's a good bet even with Dave's image. Yeah, it's possible she could have gotten way out of line with JJ and be calling down, but I find that way less likely than the combined odds of betting into KK or a chop. Rob
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#19
12-02-2005, 12:49 PM
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Re: AA
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called.
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#20
12-02-2005, 01:00 PM
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Re: AA
[ QUOTE ]
Its not a value bet in the traditional sense. He is not planning on being ahead 55% of the time that he is called. Its just that he is more of an underdog when checks and calls than when he bets and is called. [/ QUOTE ] Being more of an underdog doesn't matter in this case given the pot size. If she never bets AA it's a check-fold. But if she bets AA 50% of the time it's a check-call (earns .75BB if we're wondering if she has AA or KK), which is better than a bet, which loses 1BB the vast majority of the time here. If she bets AA 40% of the time she has AA (even accounting for only one combo of AA) we break even on our 1BB investment. In order for our river bet to be breakeven she will have to have JJ or AK some portion of the time, given how often we will be bet-folding or bet-chopping. Given how this hand has played out, especially preflop and on the flop, that doesn't seem nearly likely enough for a bet to have more EV than a check-call. IMO the decision is somewhere between check-calling and check-folding, but betting seems particularly spewy. Rob
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