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#1
11-29-2005, 07:43 PM
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A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
A hand from Strassa's great performance in last Sunday's 700K.
Roughly 60 players left. 8 handed. Blinds 3000/6000 with a 300 Seat 1: kevmike (137353 in chips) Seat 3: fi5h (46884 in chips) Seat 4: sabbis (39556 in chips) Seat 5: Ross2021 (170378 in chips) Seat 6: strassa2 (111405 in chips) Seat 7: f!v3_4c3s (108704 in chips) Seat 8: afaust (48430 in chips) Seat 9: gambler21 (200849 in chips) afaust: posts small blind 3000 gambler21: posts big blind 6000 4 folds strassa2: raises 11500 to 17500 Button folds afaust: raises 11500 to 29000 BB folds. strassa2: folds afaust collected 43400 from pot, doesn't show hand So there's t54,900 in the pot, the villain has t33,636 behind, and it's t11,500 for Strassa to see a flop. On pure math, Strassa has proper (implied) odds to see a flop with nearly any two. Nevertheless, there are arguably a variety of good reasons to fold here as the outcome of this hand will have ramifications on Hero's image and accordingly his ability to accumulate chips in future hands. I thought it might be an interesting topic for discussion. 
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#2
11-29-2005, 07:50 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
i wonder in these situations (non meta game)
say you put in a normal raise (3xbb) with AQ/AJ and a player doubles your raise (6xbb) and you are pretty confident you are dominated, but are getting over 3.5-1 whats the usual play? AQ AJ Assume stack sizes are equal and a call wont put you in a danger area. My fear here is losing a ton of chips postflop... I assume this is easy enough, but I am learning and this seems like a nice place to ask (semi hijack).
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#3
11-29-2005, 07:52 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
[ QUOTE ]
On pure math, Strassa has proper (implied) odds to see a flop with nearly any two. Nevertheless, there are arguably a variety of good reasons to fold here as the outcome of this hand will have ramifications on Hero's image and accordingly his ability to accumulate chips in future hands. I thought it might be an interesting topic for discussion. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it's helping his image much to fold, everyone sees that he folded to a tiny reraise, so he must have been raising crap.
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#4
11-29-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
the guy puts in 3/5th of his chips preflop. I treat this like a push since i can't imagine a hand that is good enough preflop but sees a flop that it doesn't like enough to fold to an autoallin getting better than 3.5;1.
So, here, jason would really be putting in 31k to win 65k or so (sorry if the #s are a bit off, but it's close enough). It's 2:1, so if he has utter trash or a read that renders his hand trashy, he should probably protect his chip position and fold.
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#5
11-29-2005, 07:57 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
[ QUOTE ]
It's 2:1, so if he has utter trash or a read that renders his hand trashy, he should probably protect his chip position and fold. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this. The stacks are way too shallow to be calling with trash against a re-raise here. I give up and try to pick another spot.
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#6
11-29-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
With these stacks this seems like a hand that Jason will have to commit to fully. Meaning one way or another the rest of the villain's chips and (some more of) Jason's chips will be in the pot on the flop. The villain raises about 2/3 of his stack. Jason can't call that and then fold on the flop.
So I wouldn't look at the odds the way you did. I would figure the odds based on the villain being all in (raising to t48430). So there will be t74030 in the pot costing Jason t30630. So Jason is getting 2.5 to 1 odds here. Is that enough? It could be that based on the way the villain played that Jason was pretty sure he was up against a big pair. In that case, if he was just playing around he'd need at least 2.5 to 1 if not 3 to 1 to make a call profitable. Factor in meta game issues and that whatever trash he raised with will be shown and it's a close call.
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#7
11-29-2005, 08:00 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
[ QUOTE ]
the guy puts in 3/5th of his chips preflop. I treat this like a push since i can't imagine a hand that is good enough preflop but sees a flop that it doesn't like enough to fold to an autoallin getting better than 3.5;1. So, here, jason would really be putting in 31k to win 65k or so (sorry if the #s are a bit off, but it's close enough). It's 2:1, so if he has utter trash or a read that renders his hand trashy, he should probably protect his chip position and fold. [/ QUOTE ] it's not relaly like that, beecause jason can see the flop for 11k. He doesn't have to invest the other 30k or whatever if he doesnt like it. It wouldn't make sense to push this PF right? Since villain is going to be investing all his chips on every flop. Might aswell see if the flop comes something terrible for your hand.
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#9
11-29-2005, 08:02 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
lloyd got it right on. the immediate odds dictate a call, but the problem is that villian is leaving himself with so few chips that he is essentially putting himself allin preflop. there are very few flops that villian will check/fold (with the limited holdings he would make this raise with), so he is almost certainly going to push whatever flop comes, or call a push from strassa. this is a correct fold with rags.
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#10
11-29-2005, 08:10 PM
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Re: A pf fold by Strassa in the 700k
If Jason thinks he up against a big pair then he's going to need a perfect flop for his hand to be good. He's about 20 to 1 to flop trips, two pair, straight, etc. depending upon what he has. So he really doesn't have odds to even call and see the flop, depending upon the read. So you can look at this hand either as a pre-flop decision or an all-in decision and in both cases the odds just don't seem to be there.
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