How often is he full of [censored]?

[Exitonly]

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looks a hell of a lot more like a missed draw (and there are a lot of potential ones on this board) than a very strong hand.

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you can you give him 60% for a missed draw,
he would have to be very loose agressive to bet a missed draw here after all the agression hero has shown
easy fold i think

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only has to be a missed draw like 31% of the time..


but yea i'm starting to agree that it's a fold.

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So i have to be right here 31% of the time to break even. Am I?


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That's pretty much correct. I think you are good here far less than 31%. I see only two possibilities that you are good:

1) Villain is a strong player who knows that you are a player capable of folding a hand like top pair played this way. But in that case why wouldn't he check raise all in on the turn on a semi-bluff?

2) Villain is a complete donk who just wants to win the pot or go home. But in this case I doubt he would insta-bet. He would most likely think for a moment before going all in. The instabet tells me he had either thought about it beforehand (had a set) or hit his card on the river (T7, Jc9c).

I think you are good only around 1/10 here.

[Mathieu]

* grunching *

The only hands that seem to make sense are 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I think a set would usually come alive by the turn, and T7 appears unlikely unless you expect the average crowd to be very loose in this tournament.

You need to be good 31 % of the times here. I think it is somewhat close. With 3-1 pot odds I would auto-call this against an unknown. With 2-1 I would be tempted to fold.

I would also be more inclined to call if I would be first to act and would have checked to induce a bluff.

Maybe the real question is how often does he think YOU'RE full of [censored]?

[Sam T.]

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I've seen the villian before, and know he plays g00t.

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Yah, MP2 topped the Stars leadboard for October.

[kuro]

I limp preflop like you did and fold to a bet and a call on the flop because I was playing 98s to make a big hand (i.e. a decent draw, two pair, trips.) You end up with second best hand spewing chips just too much if you're trying to play it for top pair value especially when you don't have a read on how villains in the hand play. Reverse implied odds of your hand on this flop is just aweful.

If I did raise the flop like you did and got a call then I'd check behind on the turn because you're just not ahead often enough to worry about protecting against the flush draw. So you keep the pot small and it makes your decision easier on the river.

[Exitonly]

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I limp preflop like you did and fold to a bet and a call on the flop

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Wait, wait, you fold top pair to that action on the flop? What are you putting these guys on? Cause i think their ranges are huge.

[Seadood228]

Personally I think you have the winner more than enough of the time to make this a profitable call. It's tougher to call this against an unknown though, especially when the majority of unknowns are donkeys who could have almost any range here.

I'd call.

[zambonidrivr]

limped pots suck. you are crushed here and he's not bluffing. i'm just trying to figure out why you're even in this hand at all.

[ansky451]

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i'm just trying to figure out why you're even in this hand at all.

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I'm trying to figure out if your response has any content whatsoever.