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#11
11-07-2005, 08:04 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I'm beating is a flush draw that elects to bluff the turn on my weakness ... [/ QUOTE ] The trouble with checking the turn is it may induce Villain to bluff you out of the pot. Another line you could take would be to bet ~1/2 the pot, which will let you get away from a large raise and will also give you reasonable odds to chase your boat if you get called and you're behind (3 to 1 when you're at worst a 3.5 to 1 dog), while discouraging a bluff (at least more than checking does). -j.a. 
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#13
11-07-2005, 08:21 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
Reads?
Two pair? I must be missing something. I bet this turn at least 1/2 pot. The only reasonable hand you're behind here is TT. 55 seems unlikely. Do you believe villian will raise a strong drawing hand like TJs OOP? If not I don't mind getting it all in here.
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#14
11-07-2005, 08:36 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The only thing I'm beating is a flush draw that elects to bluff the turn on my weakness ... [/ QUOTE ] The trouble with checking the turn is it may induce Villain to bluff you out of the pot. Another line you could take would be to bet ~1/2 the pot, which will let you get away from a large raise and will also give you reasonable odds to chase your boat if you get called and you're behind (3 to 1 when you're at worst a 3.5 to 1 dog), while discouraging a bluff (at least more than checking does). -j.a. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. Checking this hand makes you completley vunerable. You cant do that here. I would make a 2/5 - 1/2 bet.
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#15
11-07-2005, 08:47 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
Yes. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Let me put it quite simply, do you think villian suspect that you have top set based on the flop bet? If so he's fairly psychic. So it's quite likely that he doesn't know this, if so then why would he so vastly over bet the turn here? I mean what hand other than perhaps top set is calling this overbet? Not to mention that there's a WIDE range of hands you're ahead of here and really only ONE maybe two hands that you're behind here.
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#17
11-07-2005, 11:13 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Can you give me this "WIDE" range of hands that I'm ahead of that are consistent with his flop and turn play? [/ QUOTE ] Can you give a range of villain's holdings that have you beat that are consistent with the flop and turn play? I come up with 10's and 8 10, some other combo draws, but I can't think of much else. I don't think it is unfathomable for a flush draw to take this line given your weak play, which is why I would lean towards betting the turn.
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#18
11-07-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
Why yes I can.
Any flush draw with a ten (this would explain a large overbet hoping he's free rolling) TT, 8T, T9, T7, possibly JT It's certainly a strong bet if he has a flush draw and bluffs me, but I'm powerless against it. If I lead the turn and he pushes with his flush draw on the same bluff, I still can't call. Additionally being able to beat only one hand in his range does not a bet make. You guys are overestimating the weakness of my check, which many players will instinctively make with a hand like T7.
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#19
11-07-2005, 11:56 PM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
You seem certain he has a 10. I think it is equally possible for him not to. After you check the turn, you give yourself no chance to win the pot when he puts you to the test for $200. Either line you take, bet $100 and fold to a push, which you say is most certain, or check and fold to $200, you can't win. I prefer throwing out the $100 giving myself a chance to win the pot, but maybe I am looking at this wrong because you seem so certain a check fold is correct.
Up to how much are you willing to call on the turn after you check? Like I said earlier, post this in the Mid-High NL...maybe you can get a better answer there.
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#20
11-08-2005, 12:02 AM
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Re: Check-fold top set on the turn
I'd bet the turn all day if I had a hand like QQ or 98. If I get raised I can just dump it, and check-calling the turn is terrible poker because I can easily be drawing dead damn near dead.
With top set, he will rarely price me out of the pot so drastically that I cannot call with immediate + implied pot odds. Check-calling is greatly preferred. Do you not see why the fact that I have 99 as opposed to 98 changes the approach?
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