54 of hearts - should I call preflop?

[Shillx]

Why fold the flop getting 22:2 to call ?

- 23:2 is the best that we can get here. The problem is that it will oftentimes get 3-bet in which case our odds will be set at 26:3 (or even capped which would be 29:4).

- We don't have 5 outs in this hand. Even if we make fives up, we have to dodge an 8 outer coming back on the river (at least). That right there takes away .54 of an out. The times that we hit trips, we will have to avoid at least a 2-outer on the end (another .09 of an out). Then you have to consider the times that hitting the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will either leave us drawing thin or leave our opponents drawing to as many as 16 outs against us.

You have to remember that this is the bare minimum here. If we are up against 2 overpairs (or Jx) we are in even worse shape. The time to draw at 2nd or 3rd pair is when you have a good kicker. We will get counterfitted way too often to call two on the flop when there is a very real chance that it will get 3-bet or capped behind us.

Brad

[Fantam]

Thankyou for taking the time to make such a clear explanation Shillx.

It was very helpful.