Can I get him to lay down JJ here

[davidross]

Not sure if I missed an opprtunity here or not. It was pretty clear what kind of hand he had, but I wasn't sure whether he would lay it down.

Blinds are still 10/20 in Party's Super THursday. Villain open raises to 65 from 2 off the button. He has 1235. Button (1705) cold calls, I call too from the SB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I have 2160 and I'm the table chip leader. BB folds. 215 in the pot.

Flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pretty good for me. I check, Villain bets 125. Button folds. I can't tell a lot from his bet size, and rather than push here I just call.

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check and he bets 100 into the 465 chip pot. He has around 900 left, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't have an Ace. Will the average player lay down a pair lower than aces here? Worth the risk? Or do you just accept the great price on the draw?

Interestingly enough I played a very similar hand 30 minute later, still thinking about this hand where a check on the turn with two aces on the board made me pretty sure the original raiser didn't like the board. I called the flop with a gut shot, got the free card on the turn, then bet big on the river and he folded.

[Benal]

I'd bet out 250-300 on the turn. This gives him the opportunity to fold, and also lets you draw somewhat cheaply if he flat calls instead of potentially facing a large turn bet had u checked.

Given your line and his tiny bet, I call.

[jaym96822]

Interesting hand. Given the line you took on the flop, I would check-raise all-in on that turn bet. His weak lead indicates either a "scared" probe or a trap designed to induce a large bluff. The better the player, the more likely it's a trap. That early in a Super, there are far more bad players than good ones, so I would assume that villian is scared of the ace.

It's more of a "feel" than numbers, but I do think the average villian folds enough to make it worth the risk.

[Lloyd]

First step, let's put YOU on a range of hands. With him raising in LP and the button calling, what hands do you call here with. I would rule out big pairs like AA-JJ. 88-TT maybe you raise with but calling isn't horrible so I wouldn't take those out of your possible holdings. Smaller pairs are easy calls. So definitely you could have TT-22. AK I think the norm is to raise but smaller Aces not as likely. Let's say you'd call with AQ-A9, any two broadway, suited connectors down to 54 (in addition to TT-22). Huge guess but I think we need to think about this before anything else.

So pre-flop our range is TT-22, AQ-A9, KQ-JT, T9s-54s. Within that range, what hands would you check-call the flop with. I think TT-66 you raise to find out where you are. You don't have good enough odds to call with 22 so I think you'd raise or fold. 55-33 you could easily check call with. AQ-A9 you have at most 10 outs and likely less (unless you're ahead of something like AJ vs. AQ). You shouldn't call with these although weaker players might. KQ-JT is an easy fold. T9-87 should fold. 65-54 should call. So the only hands that *should* check call here are 55-33, 65s-54s. So basically, the only hands that should call are hands that can beat JJ.

YOU should not call the flop bet based solely on your draw. There has to be another reason which can be the ability to semi-bluff if a 6 hits, maybe if an 8 hits. I think an A is a pretty weak semi-bluff card as unless you're a weak player I don't see you holding an Ace based on the action so far. And you really don't have odds to call in the hopes of hitting a 2, 6, or 7. You'd have to think that you can win with a semi-bluff if an A and one other card (like an 8 or a K) came. And even then you're getting marginal odds on the flop (1.72 to 1 odds versus about 1.6 to 1 odds to make one of your real outs or semi-bluff outs). Given that the semi-bluff outs might not work I don't think you're getting good enough odds and should fold on the flop.

When the A hits the flop and he makes the weak bet, yeah, I think you might be able to push him off a hand. But this is 100% read dependent. I'm trying to look at every decision point based only on what we knew up until then. So that's why I'd recommend folding the flop but consider making a play for the pot on the turn. On the flop we had no reason to suspect weakness. On the turn, we might. With straight and flush draws most players would usually make a good size bet on the turn. 100 looks scared. And I think a good player with an overpair would not make this size bet. He would either check behind to keep the pot small, or make a good size bet. Making a small bet looks weak and invites a check-raise. I think the question is do we make the play on the turn or on the river? What will look like the stronger hand?

We're playing this like we have a made hand. The only reason why we would push on the turn is to protect versus the flush. I don't know about you but I tend to discount the flush possibility when it was a rainbow flop and I'm heads up. If he makes his flush, oh well. I'm much more interested in making value bets against an overpair versus my set on this type of board. So if I had 55 (for example), I think I would often just call the turn and lead out on the river. But I don't think pushing is horrible either. A good player would recognize that as very likely a steal attempt. Although a good player would have bet more on the flop. At the same time, this could be an opportunity for us to risk a small amount while he's risking his entire stack. If you raised to around 400 you are pot committing him. He knows that if he calls he's going to the felt. So he's risking 900 while you're risking 400. You might win the hand right then. If he pushes, you fold because you don't have odds to you're 8 straight outs. If he calls, see the river and push if you hit, check-fold if you miss.

[SossMan]

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First step, let's put YOU on a range of hands. With him raising in LP and the button calling, what hands do you call here with. I would rule out big pairs like AA-JJ. 88-TT maybe you raise with but calling isn't horrible so I wouldn't take those out of your possible holdings. Smaller pairs are easy calls. So definitely you could have TT-22. AK I think the norm is to raise but smaller Aces not as likely. Let's say you'd call with AQ-A9, any two broadway, suited connectors down to 54 (in addition to TT-22). Huge guess but I think we need to think about this before anything else.

So pre-flop our range is TT-22, AQ-A9, KQ-JT, T9s-54s. Within that range, what hands would you check-call the flop with. I think TT-66 you raise to find out where you are. You don't have good enough odds to call with 22 so I think you'd raise or fold. 55-33 you could easily check call with. AQ-A9 you have at most 10 outs and likely less (unless you're ahead of something like AJ vs. AQ). You shouldn't call with these although weaker players might. KQ-JT is an easy fold. T9-87 should fold. 65-54 should call. So the only hands that *should* check call here are 55-33, 65s-54s. So basically, the only hands that should call are hands that can beat JJ.

YOU should not call the flop bet based solely on your draw. There has to be another reason which can be the ability to semi-bluff if a 6 hits, maybe if an 8 hits. I think an A is a pretty weak semi-bluff card as unless you're a weak player I don't see you holding an Ace based on the action so far. And you really don't have odds to call in the hopes of hitting a 2, 6, or 7. You'd have to think that you can win with a semi-bluff if an A and one other card (like an 8 or a K) came. And even then you're getting marginal odds on the flop (1.72 to 1 odds versus about 1.6 to 1 odds to make one of your real outs or semi-bluff outs). Given that the semi-bluff outs might not work I don't think you're getting good enough odds and should fold on the flop.

When the A hits the flop and he makes the weak bet, yeah, I think you might be able to push him off a hand. But this is 100% read dependent. I'm trying to look at every decision point based only on what we knew up until then. So that's why I'd recommend folding the flop but consider making a play for the pot on the turn. On the flop we had no reason to suspect weakness. On the turn, we might. With straight and flush draws most players would usually make a good size bet on the turn. 100 looks scared. And I think a good player with an overpair would not make this size bet. He would either check behind to keep the pot small, or make a good size bet. Making a small bet looks weak and invites a check-raise. I think the question is do we make the play on the turn or on the river? What will look like the stronger hand?

We're playing this like we have a made hand. The only reason why we would push on the turn is to protect versus the flush. I don't know about you but I tend to discount the flush possibility when it was a rainbow flop and I'm heads up. If he makes his flush, oh well. I'm much more interested in making value bets against an overpair versus my set on this type of board. So if I had 55 (for example), I think I would often just call the turn and lead out on the river. But I don't think pushing is horrible either. A good player would recognize that as very likely a steal attempt. Although a good player would have bet more on the flop. At the same time, this could be an opportunity for us to risk a small amount while he's risking his entire stack. If you raised to around 400 you are pot committing him. He knows that if he calls he's going to the felt. So he's risking 900 while you're risking 400. You might win the hand right then. If he pushes, you fold because you don't have odds to you're 8 straight outs. If he calls, see the river and push if you hit, check-fold if you miss.

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dude, get a life.





nice analysis.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First step, let's put YOU on a range of hands. With him raising in LP and the button calling, what hands do you call here with. I would rule out big pairs like AA-JJ. 88-TT maybe you raise with but calling isn't horrible so I wouldn't take those out of your possible holdings. Smaller pairs are easy calls. So definitely you could have TT-22. AK I think the norm is to raise but smaller Aces not as likely. Let's say you'd call with AQ-A9, any two broadway, suited connectors down to 54 (in addition to TT-22). Huge guess but I think we need to think about this before anything else.

So pre-flop our range is TT-22, AQ-A9, KQ-JT, T9s-54s. Within that range, what hands would you check-call the flop with. I think TT-66 you raise to find out where you are. You don't have good enough odds to call with 22 so I think you'd raise or fold. 55-33 you could easily check call with. AQ-A9 you have at most 10 outs and likely less (unless you're ahead of something like AJ vs. AQ). You shouldn't call with these although weaker players might. KQ-JT is an easy fold. T9-87 should fold. 65-54 should call. So the only hands that *should* check call here are 55-33, 65s-54s. So basically, the only hands that should call are hands that can beat JJ.

YOU should not call the flop bet based solely on your draw. There has to be another reason which can be the ability to semi-bluff if a 6 hits, maybe if an 8 hits. I think an A is a pretty weak semi-bluff card as unless you're a weak player I don't see you holding an Ace based on the action so far. And you really don't have odds to call in the hopes of hitting a 2, 6, or 7. You'd have to think that you can win with a semi-bluff if an A and one other card (like an 8 or a K) came. And even then you're getting marginal odds on the flop (1.72 to 1 odds versus about 1.6 to 1 odds to make one of your real outs or semi-bluff outs). Given that the semi-bluff outs might not work I don't think you're getting good enough odds and should fold on the flop.

When the A hits the flop and he makes the weak bet, yeah, I think you might be able to push him off a hand. But this is 100% read dependent. I'm trying to look at every decision point based only on what we knew up until then. So that's why I'd recommend folding the flop but consider making a play for the pot on the turn. On the flop we had no reason to suspect weakness. On the turn, we might. With straight and flush draws most players would usually make a good size bet on the turn. 100 looks scared. And I think a good player with an overpair would not make this size bet. He would either check behind to keep the pot small, or make a good size bet. Making a small bet looks weak and invites a check-raise. I think the question is do we make the play on the turn or on the river? What will look like the stronger hand?

We're playing this like we have a made hand. The only reason why we would push on the turn is to protect versus the flush. I don't know about you but I tend to discount the flush possibility when it was a rainbow flop and I'm heads up. If he makes his flush, oh well. I'm much more interested in making value bets against an overpair versus my set on this type of board. So if I had 55 (for example), I think I would often just call the turn and lead out on the river. But I don't think pushing is horrible either. A good player would recognize that as very likely a steal attempt. Although a good player would have bet more on the flop. At the same time, this could be an opportunity for us to risk a small amount while he's risking his entire stack. If you raised to around 400 you are pot committing him. He knows that if he calls he's going to the felt. So he's risking 900 while you're risking 400. You might win the hand right then. If he pushes, you fold because you don't have odds to you're 8 straight outs. If he calls, see the river and push if you hit, check-fold if you miss.

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dude, get a life.





nice analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt pressured [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I guess I could have just said:

Check-fold the flop.
Raise to 400 on the turn and fold if re-raised.
And it's not even close. Do you see why?

[Benal]

Lloyd, you dont think leading the turn is a good line here?

[Lloyd]

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Lloyd, you dont think leading the turn is a good line here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Play it like you have a big hand - 55 for example. Would you lead the turn or would you allow AK or an overpair to lead out and then raise. Like I said, I don't think the A by itself is a good semi-bluff card because I wouldn't put the hero on an A the way it has played out. And leading the turn is representing an Ace which just doesn't make sense. Check-raising or check-calling and leading the river makes more sense.

[WillMagic]

Definitely check-raise here...villain oozes weakness, and you've got a solid draw to back it up. He'll be hardpressed to call with whatever pocket pair he has.

Will

[sapster]

I was the villain in this hand btw and I think my small bet on the turn was a mistake. Given I know who you are I didn't think you were calling me on a draw or with an ace and wanted to eek out a little more value from you. I think I would probably have given you credit for the set if you raised me here actually, but I shouldn't have made the bet look weak enough that you could push me off.