UI overcards--check the turn?

ellipse_87 · #1 07-21-2005, 03:19 PM

Found this in my HH from last nite. No notes on these players.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

On the flop, I've got 6 good outs. Three to one to win the hand, 3 others in; bet.

Turn: Roughly 7-1 to hit my outs, might win the hand UI, but doesn't justify a bet; should've checked. MP3 bets: 7BB pot so far, assume others fold. Okay getting 3-1 to see showdown? Or fold to probable straight (65/T9), set, or 2-pair (87s)? Does anyone at .25/.50 bluff when an 8 falls on the turn, or bet a non-face-card middle pair? Why am I calling this?

River: Why am I folding an 11BB pot? Is the likelihhod of a bluff less than 8.5%? Actually, yes. Fold.

I should have check-folded the turn. Right?

MrWookie47 · #2 07-21-2005, 03:25 PM

You should discount your overcard outs to 3, not 6. Pairing up will not always win.

Consequently, betting that turn into 3 people is bad, and betting the flop is certainly debatable.

joda mas · #3 07-21-2005, 03:25 PM

Good analysis. I agree, fold the turn. You may hit your pair and still lose.

2+2 Junkie · #4 07-21-2005, 04:05 PM

Grunching.
The flop bet is OK. I could see a turn check here, but if you are going to bet, you have to fold to the raise. If you are going to call the raise, you should call the river. I think that you are over valuing your outs as well, I only see 3, not six (you should treat each over as worth 1.5, not the full 3 each).
I would bet the flop, check the turn and fold to a bet.
The way you played it by betting out the turn, you should fold to the raise.

ellipse_87 · #5 07-21-2005, 04:54 PM

I didn't know overcards were so severely discounted. (Disclosure: I'm holding off on SSH and the other books until I get to .5/1 at least.) Does this have me winning the hand 12% of the time? That seems counterintuitive. Or is that added to the chances of winning with K-hi?

And speaking of winning with a hi-card, can anybody who knows the math teach me how to compute the chances of winning the above hand that way?

Using the simple example of A-hi and an unpaired board, and taking the fact that there are 15 cards that will pair one of the board cards, I get 30/45 * 29/44 = 44% chance that a head's-up opponent is unpaired, 18% chance that 2 opponents are unpaired, 7% chance that 3 opponents are unpaired.

But I remember a knowledgeable person in this forum using the figure of 28%.

droolie · #6 07-21-2005, 05:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(Disclosure: I'm holding off on SSH and the other books until I get to .5/1 at least.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't do that! You're risking a patients life!

Nytecaster · #7 07-21-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Found this in my HH from last nite. No notes on these players.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 raises, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11 BB

On the flop, I've got 6 good outs. Three to one to win the hand, 3 others in; bet.

Turn: Roughly 7-1 to hit my outs, might win the hand UI, but doesn't justify a bet; should've checked. MP3 bets: 7BB pot so far, assume others fold. Okay getting 3-1 to see showdown? Or fold to probable straight (65/T9), set, or 2-pair (87s)? Does anyone at .25/.50 bluff when an 8 falls on the turn, or bet a non-face-card middle pair? Why am I calling this?

River: Why am I folding an 11BB pot? Is the likelihhod of a bluff less than 8.5%? Actually, yes. Fold.

I should have check-folded the turn. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the flop is okay here with the overs as you have a possible backdoor straight draw. If a A through T falls, then I would bet out again, otherwise check/fold as you aren't going to bluff out three other players on this flop, it is likely now they aren't all going to fold. If you feel there is a good chance they all may fold then I would bet with anything on the turn. I believe unless they are weak-tight they are not going to fold as the small flop is likely to hit two blind hands with at least a pair. Keep this in mind.

#8 07-21-2005, 05:05 PM

Without a read, and with your leading the action through the flop, I think it was correct to bet the turn. Once he raised, I would have called. On the river, I call with 11BB in the pot, particularly with his apparent lack of strength pre-turn and the perhaps 10% chance he's bluffing.

nomadtla · #9 07-21-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't know overcards were so severely discounted. (Disclosure: I'm holding off on SSH and the other books until I get to .5/1 at least.) Does this have me winning the hand 12% of the time? That seems counterintuitive. Or is that added to the chances of winning with K-hi?

[/ QUOTE ]
First:
The reason overcards are so discounted is in small stakes (esspescially micros) players will play K7, KJ, Q7, QJ and even sometimes K4, and Q4 even for a raise so you're reverse dominated. Or you hit your card but are allready against 2pair or a set. Or you hit K or Q on turn but are drawn out on on the river to a straight etc.
Second:
Every second you put off reading SSH is a second you are -ev(loosing money). No lie I used to think like you that I would get it when I made higher limits, but I have been "healed" of this falacy thanks to the 2+2 micro forum.
Third:
With 4 people in the pot (you+3) you need to win +25% of the time (for it to be for value) or be sure that folds will increase your chances of winning (which I don't think they do here except maybe folding an A-high assuming no ones paired). You have maybe a 7% chance of winning this pot (and I am being very generous with this #) and against four I think almost no chance of taking it down right here so no fold equity.
Fourth:
The chances K-high takes it in a four way pot (when they all called the flop) is so minimal it can't really be quantified.

I'm not trying to be harsh by any means, we're all here to beat the fishes. This is constructive criticism and I hope it is taken as such. And if I'm out of line on my math, or in any other way then please correct me.

Duerig · #10 07-21-2005, 06:07 PM

I would check the turn with that many opponents.