Stars $215 preflop decision

[UMTerp]

Level 12, 1000/2000 w/ 100 ante. 3430 entrants, 270 cash, there's maybe 350 or 400 left. I'm above average in chips, probably somewhere around 60th-100th place right now.

(1000/2000) - 2005/07/17 - 19:34:03 (ET)
Table '9607432 183' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pumanug79 (17502 in chips)
Seat 2: olympia99 (16152 in chips)
Seat 3: UMTerp (32615 in chips)
Seat 4: Megaswim (16459 in chips)
Seat 5: flowbee (17749 in chips)
Seat 6: texan72071 (31850 in chips)
Seat 7: browerkid (16339 in chips)
Seat 8: axekick (20834 in chips)
Seat 9: danny boy 14 (46621 in chips)

Everyone antes, Olympia posts the SB, I post the big.

Dealt to UMTerp [Jd Js]

Megaswim: folds
flowbee: raises 15649 to 17649 and is all-in
texan72071: calls 17649

Folded to me. What's my play?? Is it close??

[sekrah]

Very easy fold.

At best, you are probably 35-40% here to win the pot, and you're probably going to end up virtually all-in with the big stack that just called.

At worst, you're 20%.

[A-Baum]

I fold and pick a better spot than this. Risking half your stack on JJ.

[UMTerp]

Thanks, I'm more of a SNG player than a MTT player, and didn't know if this was an easy decision or not. I thought for a little while, folded, and got shown two lower pairs (44 and 99). Oh well.

I thought there was a good chance the big stack that called had AA or KK.

[slickpoppa]

I disagree with the previous posters. I think you should have gone all-in, and I thought that before I saw the results. The stacks are so short at this point that an all-in for 8.5bb does not mean much. Texan would probably reraise with KK or QQ to protect, and AA is the only premium hand that he would just call with. From my experience you are likely against a combination of a two overcards and a small pair or two small pairs. Sometimes of course you are behind to QQ-AA, but definitely not often enough for folding to be correct. The stacks just aren't deep enough for folding JJ to be correct IMO. And you can't pass up edges like this if you want to give yourself the best chance of winning a huge tournament like this.

[UMTerp]

In general, what does texan's flat-call (as opposed to a push) indicate? Assume no reads, I'd played maybe 15 hands at this table.

Does that swing your decision one way or the other with the jacks? I think I'd have been more likely to call had he pushed. Is this reasonable?

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
In general, what does texan's flat-call (as opposed to a push) indicate? Assume no reads, I'd played maybe 15 hands at this table.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to say. It could mean strength (AA), weakness (low to mid pairs) or just utter stupidity. In my experience, the only hand that beats you that frequently gets called here is AA, maybe KK. More often than not, the call means that the guy is worried about committing his whole stack, even though he will probably end up calling for his whole stack anyway. Kind of like the idiots who limp in EP with 55 then call all-in when they get raised by someone from LP.

Anyway, the stacks are just not deep enough for to fold the fourth best stanrting hand. I think 99 would be the turning point where I start to consider folding.

[bruce]

Thanks for the excellent response.

Still not sure I agree with you, but the more I think about this the more I think your correct. I believe the key here
is that hero, relatively speaking is short stacked and in this
scenario pocket Jacks is too good a hand to fold. Initial pusher can hold anything and flat caller, in an online event
without any reads can have a hand from pocket Ducks to Aces
to an AQ. A call obviously puts your stack in jeopordy but
in order to make it to the final table you will have to win
close ones like this.

Bruce