Interesting $109 Bubble Situation

[UMTerp]

Stars $105+$9 Turbo. I'm posting this from memory, stacks are approximate, but close. It had been a prolonged bubble, and I had worked my way up from an anemic stack to put myself in pretty decent shape. Since then I'd more or less treaded water, being careful of the stacks that were likely to call, but trying to push every 4th or 5th hand to hold serve.

Blinds 300-600 w/50 ante

UTG - 3000
Button - 6500
SB - 800 (500 after posting)
BB (UMTerp) - 3200 (2600 after posting)

Button is a regular at this level, and a very good SNG player. He's well aware that even if the SB triples up this hand, he will probably win back everything he lost and then some in the next few hands by wielding his stack. He knows I'm a good player too. SB was unknown, but seemed solid enough.

UTG folds, Button pushes, SB calls, I have 88.

Call or Fold?

[kyro]

I call. It has to go in order of hand rank "SB/Button/You" for you to be busted out of the money. Button is probably pushing almost any two here. Easy call for me.

Now someone can come along and prove me wrong.

[FatalError]

call and hope you don't lose to both of them

[bkbluedevil]

Call. The only way that you get 4th here is if the three way race finishes SB>Button>You. The button could very well be pushing a random hand and the sb doesn't need much at all to call.

[11t]

I muck it like it was contaminated by radiation.

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.

Also did you move up limits recently? I've seen you at the 27's quite a bit.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]

I would just be so upset if the button had q3 and the sb had kt and the flop came kq-x and I busted out in 4th.


[/ QUOTE ]


Come on now. Stop.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Also did you move up limits recently? I've seen you at the 27's quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play sets of twelve with four $27's, five $60's, and three $114's. Makes for a nice round number for the set ($750), the $27's are about the easiest thing in the world, and it helps grow the bankroll a little quicker with the bigger games in there. It also allows me to start all twelve within a shorter period of time, which I prefer. I may phase out the $27's in a week or two, but you'll still see me around on occasion. I played a few with you either last night or the night before.

[11t]

Granted the button is probably pushing with any 2 here and the SB is basically pot committed preflop but I just can't bring myself to make this call.

If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
If the SB wasn't AI in front of you or at 1.5xBB I would call this instantly. Also if the blinds were at 400/800 instead of 300/600 or hero didnt have 4.25xBB after posting I would be more inclined to call.

Anybody wanna do an ICM calcultion on this mofo?

[/ QUOTE ]

3-way ICMs are a lot of work.

FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't. I'm almost positive ICM numbers would agree with that one.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I'm more likely to call if the SB is all-in than if he isn't.

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This is correct.