Riverbluff +EV? - Page 2

GTSamIAm · #11 07-02-2005, 04:36 PM

According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

Aaron W. · #12 07-02-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't bluff because you want to get called.

xenthebrain · #13 07-02-2005, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]
ahem, I don't think I will win the hand ever if I get called

GTSamIAm · #14 07-02-2005, 04:43 PM

Obviously, I agree. I'm just responding to xenthebrain's post:

Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

BTW, your name is Aaron W. Aaron Weil? This is Sam. Proud.

xenthebrain · #15 07-02-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, I agree. I'm just responding to xenthebrain's post:

Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Just because I used the word value it doesn't necessarily mean that I want to get called by a worse hand.
The value I'm talking about comes only from folding equity.

Bodhi · #16 07-02-2005, 04:53 PM

Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, but you haven't see 80%+ players call down with ridiculous hands?

Aaron W. · #17 07-02-2005, 06:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, but you haven't see 80%+ players call down with ridiculous hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not with hands that weak, no... with the exception of really scary boards where they just want to see if the other guy has it and this board isn't nearly scary enough (I'm thinking double-paired boards, 4-flushes, etc). There are lots of times where they may *SHOW* those hands on the river, but that's because the river got checked through.

Aaron W. · #18 07-02-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, your name is Aaron W. Aaron Weil? This is Sam. Proud.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you've got the wrong Aaron W.

Bodhi · #19 07-02-2005, 09:50 PM

When I go through my hand histories and analyze specific hands, I am sometimes shocked by what my opponents call down with. I'd post some of them here but they would be worthless and I might even get chastized for no-content-posting. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

imported_Reaction · #20 07-03-2005, 11:26 AM

Aaron,

I understand this
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

but not this:
[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]