AKs again -- hit 2 pair on flop, reality check

[jtr]

Hello again.

The villain in this hand (MP2) didn't raise much (only about 1%) but he called with all sorts of garbage (60% VPIP) and cold-called raises 8% of the time, so he's a man who likes seeing flops. Postflop, his average aggression is 3.49. so he likes throwing some chips around, and he's won 47% of showdowns suggesting that he's happy to bet with a lot less than the nuts.

Party Poker $50 No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) converter

UTG+2 ($50)
Hero ($50.85)
MP2 ($121.05)
MP3 ($49.1)
CO ($47)
Button ($52.9)
SB ($87.6)
BB ($89.75)
UTG ($48.95)
UTG+1 ($29)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, MP2 calls $6, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) calls $5.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($21) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $50</font>, SB folds, Hero?

I only have about $25 left. It would be utter madness to fold here, right? But then again, what do we think he has? Flopped set (presumably 5s) is certainly a possibility. A5 or K5 would be nice. AK and a tie seems quite possible also. Does he have the cojones to do this with a hand like AQ? The old all-in with the flush draw move seems quite likely too. I have to call, surely...

[DBowling]

Call, not even close.
One combination each of AA and KK are left. A set of fives is possible. A flush draw is possible, especially if he's got a royal flush draw. I think K5 is a stretch, but A5s and AQ are possible, given his VPIP and CC%.

[AncientPC]

Easy call. You are only behind 3 hands: AA, KK, and 55. Since you already have AK and your opponent didn't reraise pre-flop it's even more likey that he doesn't have AA or KK. However 55 is a possibility, but you have too small of a stack to care.

If you guys were both more deep stacked, then perhaps it's worth folding.

[amoeba]

easy call.

not even drawing dead against 55.

[sourbeaver]

Funny I played almost that exact same hand a month ago, except I think the flop was rainbow (how old is that hand of yours btw ?). I reraised the flop all-in, I was the one with 55 [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[soah]

You're getting 3:1 on the call, and you're a 3:1 underdog against 55. Folding is ludicrous. Even if he would only push here with AK, AA, KK, and 55, calling is still +EV due to all the money already in the pot.

[jtr]

Thanks a lot for the feedback, guys.

Great to hear that everyone thinks it's an obvious call. Just checking that the world hadn't gone mad I guess. In the event I called the all-in.

(SourBeaver, sadly it was someone else who took my money, as the hand is very recent.)

For those who care about results: <font color="white">villain had AA and MHING.</font>