Bubble Play

[Texas Pete]

Yessssssssssssssssssssss!

OK, now someone else put up a bubble hand. I would like this thread to be a short story (maybe a long one) on bubble hands, not just about that one I posted. How cool would that be??????!!!?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
What am I missing? I think everyone who has posted so far has not really thought everything out. This does not seem like an easy answer to me.

Of course the hero is not trying to get the opponent to fold. Sure, he has zero folding equity, but look at the math. Assuming the opponent will call, which he will 100% of the time, and assuming the SB folds, you risk 700 to win 1450. Giving you slightly better than 2:1. Combined with the fact that the hero is very low, and desperately needs to double through, I don't see at all what is wrong with getting your money in here. If he folds, he has 700, and now he is in the SB. If he folds now he has 550. Your opponent doesn't need aces to min raise here, I bet that is a very common play with a hand like Ax, Kx, low pairs, etc. at this level.

In fact, now that I've read through all my reasoning, I'm going to say that I really think a push is in order here. You will not be far from 50/50, and even if you are a 60/40 dog, which I bet you would be better than if you looked at this spot in the long run, this is clearly +EV (CEV AND $EV).

-Jason

EDIT: Ignore my comment about the SB, of course he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought he already posted the BB, meaning he still has 1000 chips remaining? Or does the 1000 not include the 300 he has already posted?

Cause that would, of course, make a difference.

[NegativeEV]

Believe he has T700 after posting big blind. Agree it makes a big difference.

I agree with Strassers thought process, but have a couple of extra thoughts that help me recognize that this is a clear push:

Look at the situation if you do NOT push. You have T700 remaining which gives you close to zero folding equity when facing the remaining big stacks. With 4 players left, you are out of time to wait for a solid hand as you will be required to move all in on your next big blind. You are unlikely to catch solid cards in those 4 hands which means you'll likely be pushing in with a random hand and may or may not be 50/50. You are currently a probable 50/50 or 60/40 and have the opportunity to take these *poor* odds with a chance of doubling through and being in a solid position to make a run for first. If you fold, you will likely be in a 50/50 spot with the opportunity to win far less chips and have a weak shot at first.

To me this comes down to the short time frame that folding will allow you and the fact that you can likely take a 50/50 now for a shot at first or a 50/50 in three hands for a shot at third.

[Gator]

This is from a live, single table satellite. Ten intial players - starting stack sizes of 1000 each. I'm in small blind, 5 players remaining, with 1500 chips (slightly below average). Blinds are 100/200. Big blind (with roughly 4,000 chips) is very aggessive and has come over the top of several hands in the tournament.
Important: equal prize money for 1st, 2nd and 3rd place.
It's folded around to me and I hold Ace/Ten offsuit.
I feel (self fulfilling propecy?) that Big Blind will come over me with any two.
So, I ponder my options (again, expecting reraise with any of them).
I consider:
1. fold (ok, I never considered this option)
2. complete the blind for 100
3. min reraise to 400
4. normal (what I consider normal) raise to 600
5. bold reraise to 700
I elect for option 5 (reraise to 700). Sure enough, Big Blind comes over the top putting me all in and I call. She had Big Slick.
In hind sight, I would select one of the following options.
1. Min raise to 400 (being prepared to let go of hand if reraised)
or
2. (and this is after speaking to player in Big Blind who is an accomplished poker professional) - going all in with the hand and putting BB in a tougher decision. Remember, equal prize distribution for 1-3 - Big Blind might not want to risk calling with hand that she might estimate is small favorite.
Comments?

[jedi]

Gator, I don't think you want to go to a showdown here. Push all your chips in and make the BB think about calling you. BB knows he can't make you fold if you push your chips all in, which is likely the reason he had been coming over the top of you.

Of course, that won't change the result because BB would have likely called with AK, but that would have been my thought process here.

[Texas Pete]

The only options are fold or all-in. If I was BB I would all-in a min raise (or even bigger) no matter what I had. On the other hand if I had lousy cards I would fold to your all-in. If it was a wild game I'd fold here, otherwise i'd go all-in.

[colehard]

Ok - here is a hand I belive i messed up and it possibly cost me at least a place.

Party Poker 10+1 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed)

Hero (t2345)
SB (t310)
BB (t980)
UTG (t4365)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t100, Hero calls t100, SB folds, BB checks.

I didn't raise here as UTG had been using his big stack to push around and would most likely have reraised me - i didn't want to commit too many chips here on the bubble. However on reflection this was my first error.

Flop: (t350) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t350) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB folds, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets t425</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to t850</font>, Hero calls t425.

Anyone do different here?

River: (t2050) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets t1400</font>

This is t5 more than i have left - now what?

[parappa]

I might fold this preflop, because I don't want to be playing pots against UTG right now.

But if you're going to play it, you have to put in a big raise. Either UTG's got a big hand, in which case he'll go for the limp re-raise and you can fold with a clear conscience, or he's just stealing and he'll fold. Who knows what he's got, and you can't let the bb see the flop for free. The idea here is to put pressure on the big stacks.

The check is okay on the flop, I guess. Lots of people would take a shot at it here, but I don't want to bluff at UTG.

The turn is tough. He probably doesn't have an ace, but what's he got? I don't want to know. If you do, I think you have to push or fold. Because I've got a big stack, I can't push here, so I fold.

And I can't possibly call on the river, even though I might have the best hand. This is exactly the spot I didn't want to be in with this hand in this position. Take your lumps, fold, and hope sb doesn't double through and give you a tough bubble.

[BigJohn043]

This is a classic case of a player making life too difficult. You don't want to be playing a big pot against the chip leader here. On the bubble, smooth calls particularly in an unraised pot are an awful idea. That means you need to either raise or fold preflop.

I would raise knowing that I would fold to a reraise preflop.

If somehow he called, then I am in a bit of a tough spot. I think that I check behind on this flop. When it hits me on the turn and I am checked to you have to bet this. If he comes back at me after calling me preflop he probably has a better A and you can fold with a good conscience.

I have no idea what to do given the way you played it. What is your plan on the turn?

Just calling him is an invitation for the push on the river. There are too many chips in the middle and even if he is on a stone cold bluff he has to keep going. He has you covered so he can still bounce back if you call. Calling is your worst option.

I guess you could push the turn, but that is pretty risky. UTG could have AK or AJ pretty easily. I am not sure that this is the hand you want to take a stand with.

I think that means I fold the turn....

[Texas Pete]

I'm trying to write down the bubble play Principles I've seen in the threads around here. Please comment/add. Avoid formulamatic/mechanical rules when possible.

(1) Trying - as best as the cards allow - to make your stand as the bettor and not the caller will reduce your heads up "coin tosses" IMHO - Chill888

(2) You don't want to be playing a big pot against the chip leader here. On the bubble, smooth calls particularly in an unraised pot are an awful idea. That means you need to either raise or fold preflop.--BigJohn043

(3) Raise 3x BB unless that's more than 1/3 of your stack, in which case push.