Who Will Win The Election?

[Knockwurst]

While this has been discussed in other threads, I thought it would be interesting to gather people's prognostications in one thread. How do you think election night will play out? It seems like the middle states and Deep South except for Florida are solidly for Bush while the West Coast and New England/New York are solidly for Kerry. Anyone who says that either candidate will win in a landslide is deluding themselves. Can Kerry win without Florida? Can Bush win without Ohio and Florida? It seems as though there are more must win states for Bush ie. Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri. But I think Florida is a must win for Kerry. While I think it will be close, I think many of the close states will break Kerry's way as election day nears. I think it will be Kerry winning the popular vote by 1% and the electoral vote by about 50-60 votes.

Here are some links:

http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=7779

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Elec...Projection.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...ctoratemap.php

http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...04-an0726.html

[Wake up CALL]

Bush will win and quite handily.

[cardcounter0]

Who ever Diebold says.

[riverflush]

It's a really mixed bag right now. The polls seem to favor Kerry in some key swing states, but Bush has stronger numbers in the "likely voters" category (registered vs. likely is a distinction).

I think Bush will win Florida...if 2002's election is any indicator, the Dem's have actually lost ground in that state. All the polls had Jeb ahead by a mere 2 or 3 points, and he won by a landslide 56-43 margin...and this was even after the 2000 election fiasco . The polls seem to be useless in that state. I think it's trending Bush.

What should really concern Kerry is:

1) Zero bump out of the convention, which is really unprecidented. Either voters have already made up their mind, or this covention was a massive dud.

2) Minimal bump for Edwards pick. This is also disturbing for Kerry, as it shows that (despite massive media hype) Edwards won't have much effect on the election at all. Contrast that to Cheney's negative public image, and you have a major lost opportunity.

3) Swift Boat/Cambodia lasting 20 days+ as a media story. Instead of getting out in front of this thing, Kerry sat back for nearly 3 weeks and didn't respond to the attack. Now, it's festered around and grown into a monster - and all Kerry can do is send threatening letters and lawsuit complaints? He should have jumped on it hard 3 weeks ago and called these guys out immediately. Make a big appearance where he thrashes these guys in a speech...and plays up his love for the country and service, etc. etc. He should have done that August 1, not August 24th.

With no bump from the convention, this Vietnam controversy can take away his 3% or 4% advantage in a heartbeat.

[SinCityGuy]

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Bush will win and quite handily.

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Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bush will win and quite handily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

I'm curious, what states do you think that Bush will win that Al Gore won in 2000?

[/ QUOTE ]

None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

[nicky g]

I agree. There is no way a liberal Massachussets senator will beat a "wartime" President. Plus Kerry has the charisma of a rotting corpse and his post convention bounce was negligible. And if all else fails, Bush will cheat. Kerry is toast.

[Nepa]

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None, need he win any more states in 2004 than in 2000 to be elected quite handily?

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He still got alittle work to do



Still alotta blue!

[nothumb]

I think the likely voters category is crucial, and what people forget is that pollsters do not consider young voters to be likely, but those voters are going to turn out big this year. Bigger than ever before, quite possibly.

However, Jeb is once again purging the rolls in Florida and I absolutely do not trust the results from electronic voting machines. Call me paranoid, but they can't even produce the records from the 2002 elections in Florida even as Jeb is claiming these machines are foolproof.

I honestly think there will be some very dirty tricks in this election.

NT

[Nepa]

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However, Jeb is once again purging the rolls in Florida and I absolutely do not trust the results from electronic voting machines. Call me paranoid, but they can't even produce the records from the 2002 elections in Florida even as Jeb is claiming these machines are foolproof.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is going to come down to FLA this year. I think the walls are going to fall in on Bush with him also losing in NC Virgina and there are a few other state that bush won big in 2000 that are becoming battleground states.