Has he got quads?

[ QUOTE ]
If his range is AT, AA, QQ he's actually more likely not to have AT.

6 ways to have AA.
6 ways to have QQ.
4 ways to have AT.

You are ahead 5/8 times. Cap the river, he's gonna raise with any boat and he likes TTTAA too much to call.

[/ QUOTE ]



IMO. Bayesian analysis is used too often in situations like these incorrectly. You should use this method of analysis when all of his holdings, when weighted based on previous actions, are equally likely. You can then use Bayesian to see which holding is his most likely due to distribution.

In this case, when he raises the river, I don't think the options are equally weighted.

When he raises after the King falls on the river, I think we can discount QQ heavily. And I think that you can limit his holdings to AA and AT. Without a preflop cap I'm inclined to think that AT is actually favourite; not the other way around.

I dont think he has quads, if he did he probably would have raise you on the flop. Probably has tens full of eights. BET the river.

In my opinion, the right answer to the question "Has he got quads?" is pretty much always no. Sure, once in a while he does and you happily pay him off. After all, quads deserves to win. But in all the rest of the cases, you win. Turn by turn...

Preflop: Standard

Flop: Good bet. His calling doesn't really tell you much. I'm guessing at that point that he's either an idiot, or he's slow-playing ATs, A8s (very unlikely with 22 vpip), AA, KK, QQ, JJ. You're ahead to everything but the AA and ATs. Pokerstove puts you ahead here 75% of the time.

Turn: Again, good call. I'd cap this every day and twice on sunday. Per pokerstove, you're winning 83% of the time here. I have to assume he's playing AA, QQ, JJ at this point -- either that or we go back to the idiot hypothesis. A distant voice in my mind would be asking whether he had the last ten, but I'd quickly silence that thought and move on.

River: Cap cap cap. At this point, pokerstove is putting you on the favorite 98% of the time. Unless you have a STRONG read on this guy that he is super-tight and weak, then you need to cap. And frankly, I don't see how a read could ever be that good.

You didn't tell us how it ended, but I would've bet the river. If he raised, I'd put him on AA. If he called, I'd assume he showed QQ,JJ,ATs. Alternately, he's got a beer in his hand.

[GTSamIAm]

At what point do hand probabilities yield to the fact that only certain hands will be played with such strength? I'm not capping this river, because what hands do you beat? I can only guess QQ or JJ and he's probably not capping you on the river with them. I'd just bet/call this river, maybe that's unwise, apparently some of you think so.

Err, edit: I forgot the river was a king, so you're only behind quads, right? I'd definitely 3-bet and rue the day if he caps and shows me quads. But if you didn't improve your boat on the river, I think I'd play it the same. Especially since the river is a K, do you think he's playing so strong with just QQ or JJ?

[Shillx]

Best play (not in terms of EV)

C/C > cr/f > b/f > b/3 >> cr/c > b/c

In terms of EV it is C/C >> b/f > cr/f > b/c > cr/c >> b/3

[censored] an a man. Why does everyone want to cap this thing? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Edit - Capping here [censored] sucks. The only hand we pulled ahead of on this river is AA. Tens full of eights was never a real threat given what he should be raising PF with. If he gives you any action at all, you are looking at quads. If he doesn't have it, he will call the river (even more so now that hands like JJ don't look so good).

[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Capping here [censored] sucks. The only hand we pulled ahead of on this river is AA. Tens full of eights was never a real threat given what he should be raising PF with. If he gives you any action at all, you are looking at quads. If he doesn't have it, he will call the river (even more so now that hands like JJ don't look so good).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. QQ and JJ slows most players down on the turn. I don't think any good player caps these hands so they're out based on the action. And I don't think anyone mentioned that it's not necessarily just A 10 we're worried about. I think someone could be getting creative with something like K 10s.

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, the right answer to the question "Has he got quads?" is pretty much always no.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to say that it's very dangerous to think this way. In fact, I tend to believe the opposite. When the flop comes, I really have to stop and consider what my opponent is calling with. I always think about why my opponent is calling or raising, and in the case of this flop, someone playing a 10 is very likely. I'm not surprised to see quads just because it's an unlikely hand to have when the hand begins.

You also have to think about the hand your opponent can put you on. In terms of capping - in the case of my opponenet's 8 8 or A A here (the only hands we beat), my opponenent should probably be hesitant to raise with these holdings based on the action on the turn and facing a bet in front. 88 would probably have to assume my AA to raise (with 10 - x as a possibility - and why would I be this crazy with A A anyway?), and my opponenet's AA has to worry about all kinds of different hands. Because of this, with my bet in front, I think I'm definately facing quads if raised so why bet, and even worse - 3 bet?

I think that you must cap. He obviously has a pair down and there is only one pair down that has you beat here.

The only hand with a ten that he possibly has is A10 and that is just not likely enough to warrant fear.

[AussieBattler]

Now I have a read here as "Villain is 22/7/1.2 9K hands" Im flip flopping back to my original answer with A10s definitely in his PFR but not capping range. His actions so far coupled with that AF make quads a possibility...I have MUBS about MUBS [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, and more importantly, I think that for me to spend any more time thinking about this hand is wasted energy as this situation wont occur often enough for it to be a big leak.

ps Shillx, your post was golden as always....nh

[Black Peter]

I agree with Kwaz. You have more information than just the odds to work with here. Use ALL your information.