2/5 NL JTs flops two pair

[swolfe]

I have $850, Villain has me covered.

Villain raises to $40 UTG, gets 2 callers to me, I call with JT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], there are two callers after me.

The amount raised, Villain's demeaner, and previous observations make me think he has AA/KK/QQ.

6 to the flop.

Flop $240 - Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets $100, folds to me, I ???

I still have two to act after me.

couldn't he easily have AK?

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
couldn't he easily have AK?

[/ QUOTE ]
he doesn't have AK. it's a read. i trust it.

[snappo]

if you can pin him on that range I think calling and getting the money in on a non K/A/(9?) turn is good.

[Big_Jim]

This is a really interesting spot.

The combination of tight hand range, multi-way pot, his goofy small bet, and stack sizes make this a pretty tough decision.

Any clue what his goofy 40% flop bet means?

I'm pretty torn between calling and raising.

My first inclination was to raise. This (hopefully) knocks out the blinds, and whatever draws they may have, and gets you heads up with the PF raiser. The problem with raising, though, is that he may very well push on you with more than just QQ, especially since the board is so draw heavy, but will probably be pushing QQ much more often than AA/KK, and we have to fold. Furthermore, we still have no idea what the blinds are gonna do. OTOH, this is kind of a nightmare flop for AA/KK and a raise is likely to slow down a lot of players, you may even get a fold (although this is pretty unlikely).

If you smooth call his bet, you get to see what the blinds do for cheap. If they call behind you, you can pretty much assume they're drawing, and play accordingly on the turn. If they raise, you're probably smoked or coin flipping. On a blank turn, you will have halved his equity the times he has AA/KK and can more confidently get some money in the pot. I would raise another weak lead and try to take a cheap showdown. If he bets much stronger on the turn... well... sounds like you've got a pretty good read on him, use it.

I think I'm leaning towards call.

[swarm]

Well your a favorite over AA only, KK your coinflipping and your a HUGE dog to QQ. Your not folding anything and you still have the blinds left to act. So your either barely ahead, even steven or way behind and you still have two unknown monkeys in the bin.

Call the 100 and wait for the blinds to act, push a brick on the turn.