KJo flops to two YAY

wdeadwyler · #1 12-14-2005, 03:59 AM

Villain in this hand is 28/10/3, with 25% WTSD after
513 hands

TAGish

I made a donkey call fresh at table of 50BB. I raised UTG with QQ, donkey short pushes, villain called (Donkey had him covered), I called. Flopped a set, he had KK. (short had 77)

He seems pretty solid and definately respects my play. He made some comments earlier about how I took his stack on a suckout, so maybe he is still mad. Also, he said about 100 hands ago that I had tightened up considerably, since he said that I sarted stealing alot more, with good success.

\Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$100) (6 handed) link

BB ($74.64)
UTG ($98.50)
MP ($133.82)
Hero ($211.40)
Button ($129.65)
SB ($96.00)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $2.00, MP calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, 2 folds, BB calls $1.00.

Flop: ($8.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $5.00, Hero raises to $19.00, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $14.00.

Turn: ($46.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

What do we do here if

A) Villain Checks
B) villain leads for 2/3 pot
C) IF A, villain C/R all in.
D) What is villains hand range after flop call?

How much should we bet?

FreakDaddy · #2 12-14-2005, 04:16 AM

I'm curious what others think about this on small stakes. Is it profitable to call KJ after a raise and call? Even with position. It's only a mini-raise, but people slow play big hands UTG and +1 at this level. I don't know. I think I used to think it was worth looking at a flop in position, but I'm not so sure anymore.

wdeadwyler · #3 12-14-2005, 04:18 AM

That was part of the reason I posted this. Please guys, comment on anything you wish, but B) and C) are both tough spots and I wanted to hear some input, also hand ranged. G'night. Cya guys 2morrow.

Malachii · #4 12-14-2005, 05:22 AM

If he checks, I bet as there's a good chance he's on a draw. If he checkraises all in it I'm probably calling even though I hate the situation.

As far as his range of hands goes... you're the one that has 500 hands on him, not us.

wdeadwyler · #5 12-14-2005, 03:42 PM

Bump

Yes, I know I have 500 hands on him, I had a range in mind, just curious as to others.

I agree if he checks I bet, but what if he leads,I think that is the much tougher spot.

EMcWilliams · #6 12-14-2005, 04:15 PM

A) Villain Checks I lead for 2/3 of the pot and call a push.
B) Villain leads for 2/3 pot- Push it in. If he called with a gut shot he can have my stack. I dont see KQ in his range
C) IF A, villain C/R all in. Call. I smell a semi-bluff on a diamond draw.
D) What is villains hand range after flop call?
I have him on 2 diamonds, maybe a pair with the 2 diamonds. Tough spot IMO.
To a mini-raise on 6max with position, I dont mind a call here, but you cant get carried away with your hand. But of course, you know that, since you adovcate that a lot.

beavens · #7 12-14-2005, 04:18 PM

what about 33, 66, QQ?

Cosimo · #8 12-14-2005, 10:39 PM

Preflop

Some big pocket pairs might be slowplayed, either cuz he's too confident in them or insecure about hands before the flop comes. Hence, I wouldn't rule out AA-JJ and AK here. If your reads say he would 3bet those hands, then take that into account. What's his coldcall %? I'd have to put him on broadways or a pocket pair at this point. I think mid and low suited connectors are less often called behind a raise.

Flop

Short form: strong flop hands (two pair or better) would probably reraise you so I'm putting those as unlikely, especially since you've got a K and J. One pairs, ISD, OESD, and FD might bet like he does especially when he has two combined. So that's what I'd put him on.

Since you hold the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he can't have both TP and a couple diamonds. Maybe he has KQ (suck!) but then, still, he doesn't have two diamonds. QJo is in his calling range and maybe worth a flop bet from nearly last position -- but not worth calling your raise. JTo similarly would fold here.

Is he the type to slowplay a flopped set? Is his flop bet in line with 66? I would guess not; I see very few people bet flopped sets. So I put that in his range, but at a low probability. (There are three combinations here.) Some people like to bet small when they hit a monster, because they want some money in the pot. Your read will have to tell you if this is the case, and if so, you have to put 66, JJ, and KK up higher on your list (there are a total of 5 of those combos).

AQ, suited or not, is also possible. A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] particularly. This gives him either an ISD or FD+ISD. I don't see those get bet on the flop too much, tho. I can see him betting and calling with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but not any other AQ. QTs also possible, and probably worth a bet as a FD+OESD.

KK and JJ are both very unlikely, since there's only one of each.

You said he respects your play. Hence when he calls your flop raise, he has to have a hand or a strong draw. I think 66, JJ, and KK go out the window because I think a 3AF player would push then and there.

So, all that said, I'd have to put him on a draw or KQ. Other holdings -- those that crush you -- are possible but less likely. I'd put your winning chances at 60% on the flop.

Turn

Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes on the turn.

A) Villain checks: either he's on the flush draw, an ISD that just made a pair, or he has you crushed and is waiting for your stack. I'd bet 2/3rds-ish pot and fold to a raise.

B) Villain leads 2/3rds: hmm. A donk bet here scares me, and makes me think either he's the sort of fool that bet and called with an ISD, he has me crushed, he's bluffing, or he had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T (maybe also [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). I'd fold this, cuz I think the only chance to win here are a K or J on the river OR he's bluffing. If he's respecting your play, I don't think he'd bluff or bet a single pair (like AQ or QT).

C) Fold to a CR. See A), above. I'd put him on KQ, AT, or a set.

D) See above.

DISCLAIMER: I suck, so take this with a grain of salt. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]