Commerce 10/20 Freerolling Math Question

[lapoker17]

Not that interesting a situation, but I was hoping you math guys could shed some light on this for me - I'm interested if Villain made a proper +EV call, and although I'm kind of a math guy, I don't do real math with formulas and stuff.


Crazy table, 5 handed, 10/20 no cap.

Maniac (20K) raises to 150 as he does 80% of hands, 2 callers to me ($5000) on the Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I call.

Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to Villain ($5000) who bets $400. I call it's heads up.

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Villain bets $900, and I move all in.

He knows I'm freerolling with the spades. He has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Is this auto-call for him?

[dmk]

call

20% of the time he'll win $0
80% of the time he'll win $5300

weighted avg = 4240

if he folds, he'll be left w/ 3600 or so

[lapoker17]

That's so simple. And I'm so lazy and dumb.

Thanks.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

[ QUOTE ]
call

20% of the time he'll win $0
80% of the time he'll win $5300

weighted avg = 4240

if he folds, he'll be left w/ 3600 or so

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm missing something. Shouldn't it be 20% of the time he loses whatever he has to call (don't have original post open) instead of just making 0?

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
call

20% of the time he'll win $0
80% of the time he'll win $5300

weighted avg = 4240



[/ QUOTE ]

you might want to recheck your math.

[lapoker17]

Jonas - I know how much you enjoy deriding others, but please give me the real answer. My mind doesn't work this way.

$3200 in pot. You will win 20% of the time.

So 80% of the time he wins $1600 = .8*1600= 1280
20% of the time he loses $3400 = .2*3400= 780

Looks like a good call. I apologize if my math is wrong

[coltrane]

35 * 1600 = 56000
9 * -3550 = -31950

it's a call

[durrrr]

cant you have As X (X not of spades) some % of the time here? If i was villain i'd be hardpressed to give you As Xs more than say 90% of the time... i think this should be factored in.

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
cant you have As X (X not of spades) some % of the time here? If i was villain i'd be hardpressed to give you As Xs more than say 90% of the time... i think this should be factored in.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
He knows I'm freerolling with the spades.

[/ QUOTE ]