Another A,K question?

[rybones]

So the villian has been quite active. what should my responce be?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2280)
BB (t730)
UTG (t1920)
Button (t3070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3070 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">

Any thoughts would be welcome

Ryan

[quarkncover]

Personally I'm folding this and waiting for a better spot.

I only have 150 invested in the pot and you still have a lot of FE against the other players.

Have any of the Villain's pushes come to showdown? I would be curious to what range you put him on.

Recently I've become a bit tighter around the bubble and have been exploiting my opponents post-flop mistakes ITM. Maybe its weak-tight and a leak I need to fix.

[ QUOTE ]
So the villian has been quite active. what should my responce be?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2280)
BB (t730)
UTG (t1920)
Button (t3070)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t3070 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">

Any thoughts would be welcome

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

i say call but i'm not sure if that is correct. given the stack sizes and the fact that he has been "quite active" you're probably a ~2:1 favorite quite often. yes 1/3 of the time you will lose and be out of the $, but the times you win you will be in a dominant position and will probably be able to exploit the bubble for at least a couple more hands, giving you a great chance to win.

i can see the argument for folding b/c of how short the big blind is (t430 after posting i assume?). but if you fold, he calls, and he wins, which is a distinct possibility given the fact that the button's hand is probably not premium, you are now in a situation where you are in a dogfight to get ITM.

so i think the reward of calling outweighs the risk.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
"quite active"...

i can see the argument for folding b/c of how short the big blind is (t430 after posting i assume?). but if you fold, he calls, and he wins, which is a distinct possibility given the fact that the button's hand is probably not premium, you are now in a situation where you are in a dogfight to get ITM.

so i think the reward of calling outweighs the risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have to agree. Certainly playing guarded in these precarious situations (bubble'r on life-support) is justified. But when presented with those rare opportunities, as good as this one, to "go for 1st"...you need to position your mouse over the call button, and jump on the mouse with both webbed feet! One positive outcome (march to victory), will compensate for a couple "well, that was dumb"s.

[microbet]

Call and win = .397
Fold = .278

.307 * x = .278
x = .7

I dunno. Show me where I'm wrong, but you gotta be 70% to win. AKo is only 66% against any two except JJ+ (meaning I'm saying he won't push with JJ+ which helps your AK here).

[microbet]

Or, if you don't like ICM, I'll just say fold so you can win some money. Don't assume you are going to come in first if you win the hand. Really don't assume that you won't come in first if you fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Call and win = .397
Fold = .278

.307 * x = .278
x = .7

I dunno. Show me where I'm wrong, but you gotta be 70% to win. AKo is only 66% against any two except JJ+ (meaning I'm saying he won't push with JJ+ which helps your AK here).

[/ QUOTE ]

wouldn't one's ability to bully the table if he wins the hand more than make up for the slight difference between your calculated % needed and AK's slightly lower % against the button's range?

[microbet]

70% to 66% is pretty significant and that was against a dream range, in reality you are probably more like 64%. And, you have FE as it is. Winning will not increase your FE over either of the smaller stacks and quite possibly won't make that big a difference over the big stack. In fact, if the big stack loses this hand he may be desperate, tilted and mad a you and give you even less FE than if you fold this hand to him.

[rybones]

sorry to those who said call.

I folded, bb folded but went out the next hand, and I went on to win .... nope! I got second to the villian. That is why I posted. Thanks for the replies. if anyone else has a thought please let me know.

Ryan