PLO8: Flop top set -> Push on turn?

[TGoldman]

Party Poker $25 PLO/8 (8 handed) converter

MP ( $64.10 )
CO ( $13.41 )
Hero ( $35.93 )

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB checks.

I have a speculative hand in position after several limpers. This is the kind of situation where I like to call and see a flop.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> (Pot: $1.60)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets pot, CO calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG folds.

Well, I flop top set but the flop brings two low cards. So I'm likely playing for half of the pot, but the flop is pretty raggy so I'm not ready to fold just yet especially with the CO providing some dead money in the middle. So I call hoping to make my boat and/or re-evaluate on the turn.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> (Pot: $6.40)
MP bets pot, CO calls, Hero raises max...

This card is a brick in my opinion and MP leads out with a pot sized bet. MP has me covered, and CO's call commits him to the pot. I almost surely have the best high hand at this point and my main fear is something like A24x to which my pot equity is about even at this point. With only one card to come, I figure I gain enough folding equity here to make jamming the right move here. Agree/Disagree? Does the fact that CO will almost surely call all-in change the strategy at all here so that it's better to smooth call the turn?

[Wintermute]

TG, I've seen this move used by top players and have used it a little myself, and I think it's the best play against thinking opponents. Not just against a board w/ two low cards, but against any draw-happy board (two to a suit for example), good players will frequently take a card relatively cheaply with top set or 2nd set, and then jam on the turn when a blank comes off and the odds are almost certainly in their favor. So, against strong opponents, I like your play a lot.

However, at this level, I wouldn't be surprised to see somebody betting the pot on the flop with naked A2. In addition, with the call in between the original bettor and you, I think a pot-sized raise on the flop might be the right play. This way, if the turn blanks, you can force a weaker player to committ his full stack to draw at a low. If the turn brings a low card that completes a possible wheel draw, I think I'd probably call anyway since you may have odds to fill up, especially if it's an A or 4 so that you have redraws to the wheel as well.

I guess I'd say that either method is OK here. But it looks like you're thinking way above the level you're playing, so when you get the BR built up sufficiently, I'd encourage you to jump a level or two.

[TGoldman]

Thanks, WM. I just recently started transitioning to PLO/8 from limit O/8 and I'm amazed at the level of success I've had thus far crushing the $25 buy-in games. I've never beaten any form of poker as resoundingly as I have been able to do at the PLO/8 $25 level. I'm running at something like 20 bb/100 over 4,000 hands. Perhaps I'm just running well, but I see so many atrocious mistakes by opponents that it makes me wonder. I already have the bankroll to move-up and eventually I will do so. I've noticed that there's something of a bubble in the number of players at the $25, $50, and $100 buy-in levels. There are always plenty of $25 games to choose from. However the $50 games are empty compared to the $100 buy-in. What's up with that?? Do all of the $25 buy-in graduates converge at the $50 level whereas the gamblers like the $100 level? How would you rank the difficulty of the higher buy-in games?

[Wintermute]

PLO8 is a goldmine if you have the right mindset, and it sounds like you do. 20 BB/100 may not be sustainable at higher levels where the blunders may not be as severe, but 10-15 BB/100 is certainly possible, and I'm sure there are players who hit 20 at even the highest levels.

As for the skill, I haven't played the $50 or $25 so I don't have a good sense for comparison... however, from $200 to $600, the games are an utter joke, I would imagine they are comparable to the $25 games only with a little more aggression. (In fact, I'd say that's the biggest difference in the levels--as you go higher, the play gets more aggressive... you won't see as much less-than-the-pot betting.) The $100 game is a bizarre mix in my opinion (this is just over a few hundred hands though)... this seems to be the level where risk-averse smart players prefer to stick, so you get a handful of rocks, but then there are players who are truly the stupidest players I've ever encountered. I'd recommend datamining that level with PTO and identifying the players who know what they're doing, and then eat the rest alive.
At $1000 and $2000, the play gets markedly better, but both are still beatable.

In terms of beatablity, I'd rank the games (most beatable first):

600
400
200
1000/2000

Probably stick 100 around the 200/400 point or so I guess, just haven't played enough hands there to say for sure.

If you're having trouble finding a game at $50 &amp; you have the $2k or so you'd probably want for the $100 game, I'd suggest just jumping to $100. From the sound of it you'll have no trouble beating the game.

[gergery]

Wintermute,
I’ve been meaning to ask you about win rates and softness of the games at PLO8 so thanks for posting.

I’m surprised you rate the 600/400 games easier than the 200/100. Do you really think that? Have you played a lot at 400, 600?Why do you think that is? How did you start out and how quickly did you move up?

I have been winning at 200 level at 13bb/100 after ~8k hands, and that seems sustainable based on how my opponents seem to play. I still think I can get significantly better at the game too. I have the bankroll, so maybe I’ll try moving up.

I was playing in a Stars PLO8 100 game last night and 6 opponents all had VPIP higher than 30, and 3 were higher than 60. It doesn’t get much better than that.

-Greg

[gergery]

I like how you played the hand and likely play it the same

Any hand that can’t make a low when two low cards come on the flop isn’t that strong

[Wintermute]

I started playing the old $100 PLO8 game back in Nov/Dec. When the 2/4/6/1000 tables came out, I immediately began playing them all. I wasn't quite sufficiently BR'd, but managed to do fine.
Why do I think the 600/400 are "easier"? Well, I say that based strictly on my results, especially the most recent results. A while back I posted these stats from my first 80k or so hands at 200 and above:

$1000 level: 3.46 BB/100 over 13,111 hands
$600 level: 15.6 BB/100 over 17,585 hands
$400 level: 3.05 BB/100 over 18,891 hands
$200 level: 11.8 BB/100 over 32,524 hands

Over the last 35k or so hands:

$1000 level: 3.67 BB/100 over 5,544 hands
$600 level: 18.28 BB/100 over 9,828 hands
$400 level: 14.95 BB/100 over 9,221 hands
$200 level: 9.19 BB/100 over 10,431 hands

I suspect things are working better for me at 600 (and 400 to a degree now) than at 200 due to a confluence of several factors:

First, the competition: players from higher limit HE games may try PLO8 for kicks, they need to find a game where the threat to their BR makes it at least somewhat interesting ($1000 NLHE player isn't going to sit in a $100 PLO8 game for fun). I definitely see few-time players at these levels that I never see at $200 PLO8. Also, players from lower limit PLO8 move up when they are running bad at 100/200, and hemmorage chips. That happens all the time.

Second, these levels are "lost in the middle"... all the *really* tough players with unlimited BR's are playing 1000 &amp; 2000. On the flipside, the good players who are either not BR'd high enough or are too scared to risk any "serious" money are stuck at 100/200... (I think this is a real factor... 400/600 is where you start to venture into the "I just won/lost a couple month's rent" territory from "I just won/lost a nice meal with the lady", I think this definitely prevents many good players from testing the waters, or from playing as well as they can.)

Third, the 400/600 levels fit my BR/style/comfort-level best. They're high enough limits that I behave myself, but low enough (non-threatening to the BR by a long shot) that I don't become passive or change my style in other ways. I suspect that at 1000 and 2000, I am playing a bit differently (weaker)... the PTO stats are very similar across the levels, but it's easy to change one or two late-street plays from how you usually would that make a huge difference in winrate but don't show up obviously in the routine PTO stats.

Hope this helps, see you at 400/600.

[emptyshell]

Well, from my experience, the $25 games are a complete joke. Anything above that, even $50, the players are much better. Not that they aren't beatable.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
see you at 400/600.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope not! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Thanks for the info.