Nut flush pairs board on river

[TGoldman]

9 handed $3/$6 Omaha/8b

Hero is Big Blind with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop:
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP calls, 1 fold, CO calls, button calls, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>

Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets, button calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, button checks.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero ... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Well, I made the nut flush on the river but the board paired in the process. I suspect most of my opponents missed their low draws and are now prepared to fold. However I'm first to act and am unsure on how to proceed.

My options as I see it...

1) Check and call. Yet if I check, will I be able to profit when a worse hand bets? I get the feeling it will get checked around whenever I hold the best hand, but I'll be calling with a loser the majority of the time that someone else bets.

2) Betting. Will a worse hand call? Perhaps someone with trips or a smaller flush will call, but I'd hate to get raised here. The pot is so small that it would make me sick to have to put in two big bets on the river to find out if I'm good. Can I fold to a raise? I don't know. Ugh. What's the hero's best strategy here?

[gergery]

Tough spot. not sure what right action is.

My gut as i was reading it was to bet out on the flop, and if I'd checked for some reason, to raise once others bet.

Once you are at the river and no one bet after you on the turn, I'd probably bet the river.

But i'll concede this may not be the right way to play this.

-g

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm first to act and am unsure on how to proceed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check and call.

Playing the nut flush when this board pairs on the river is a bit like playing the worst full house (here deuces over tens).

There are a whole bunch of possible better hands and they are yet to act behind you.

Anyone behind you with a full house will probably bet it - and in that case you will lose one big bet by playing as recommended.

You call because anyone behind you without a full house might try to steal it or might think they have the best hand (possibly with trip deuces). In that case, playing as recommended will win the pot for you and also will win one extra big bet from a would be thief.

Often when playing Omaha-8 you can play offensively and make someone else defend. Here, fate has put you in a position where the best course of action is to simply take a defensive position yourself. It's not a great place to be, but it's the place where you are.

[ QUOTE ]
Yet if I check, will I be able to profit when a worse hand bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. That's why you check and call.

[ QUOTE ]
I get the feeling it will get checked around whenever I hold the best hand, but I'll be calling with a loser the majority of the time that someone else bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. That is what will probably happen.
But if you bet, the only one who will call probably has a better hand than you (and may raise).

Someone might think the thing to do is bet and then fold to any raise - but unless this is the very last hand you're ever going to play against these opponents, I wouldn't advise doing that. (Because I think you reduce the chances of various other options working for you on later hands).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[MortalWombat]

What happens if there is not only a raise, but a reraise, and maybe even a cap before it gets back to you? Do you still call?

[Ironman]

No. If it is one bet back to me, I call. If there is a raise, then I throw it away.

I play this hand as a check call whenever it happens.

Dave

[lonn19]

Yea, a raise would scare me here. I would check/call.

[GooperMC]

Check call.

If you check you may get a worse hand to think they are best and bet when that same hand may be scared away by a bet. I think it is just as likely that in LP someone holding a hand that you beat will bet as they will call. However the check call option doesn't open you up to a raise.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
What happens if there is not only a raise, but a reraise, and maybe even a cap before it gets back to you? Do you still call?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Mortal Wombat - Assuming you can see four cards in the flush suit after the turn, two times out of nine when the board flushes on the river, it will also pair.

But although a common occurrence, it's not easy to know for sure what you're up against when you end up with the nut flush here.

If you start with nine opponents, and if none of them fold there’s about an eighty per cent chance of encountering a full house or quads when the board pairs on the river. But here half of your opponents folded before the flop. If you start against only four opponents, and if none of them fold, then there’s only about a fifty per cent chance at least one of them has a full house when the board pairs on the river.

Hard to say exactly how hand selectivity plays a role here. Are the four opponents who saw the flop more or less likely than random to have one of the two-card combinations that would beat you? I’d guess slightly less likely than random. With three random carded opponents, the probability of encountering at least one opponent with a full house is about 40%.

Whatever. Make if forty per cent or fifty per cent, or some where in between.

Most Omaha-8 players with much experience at all realize that there is a very good chance of somebody making a full house or better when the board pairs. And most Omaha-8 players with much experience also realize that sometimes nobody has a full house, even though the board is paired.

At any rate, when someone bets after the river card pairs and flushes the board, it’s not necessarily with a full house.

But raising is a different matter. A raise on the fourth betting round when the board is paired and low is not possible usually means the nuts or at least an overboat. There are thrill seekers who raise with less here - but that’s wild play and not often encountered. There are also ignoramuses who raise thinking a set is a good hand when the board is paired and flushed - but by and large, anyone raising on the fourth betting round when the board is paired and flushed usually has at least a full house. And that beats an ace-high flush.

Bottom line. I would tend to call one big bet with the nut flush when no low is possible, even though the board is paired. However, I would not call a double bet.

Just my opinion.

Buzz