Cause for concern with middle set here?

jtr · #1 01-08-2005, 03:36 PM

I suspect the right move here is obvious, but I guess I want to check whether anyone else would be nervous.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $25 / $0.5 BB (10 handed) converter

Button ($23.75)
SB ($34)
BB ($15.65)
Hero ($31.25)
UTG+1 ($26.68)
UTG+2 ($21.5)
MP1 ($35.4)
MP2 ($26.2)
MP3 ($37.55)
CO ($27.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, UTG+1 raises to $2.68, 3 folds, MP3 calls $2.68, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.18.

Flop: ($8.79) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $12, MP3 calls $34.87 (All-In), Hero??? (about $22.50 remaining in stack).

I've only sat down two orbits ago. For the PF raiser with the strange raise to $2.68 (any theories on these guys -- I think they just like seeing the pile of multi-coloured chips they get for this weird amount) I've seen about 10 hands. This is his first raise; he's limped in with about half his hands so I assume tentatively that he's a typical loose player. The raise is from early position so I'm giving it plenty of credit: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK.

The cold-caller in MP3 I've seen 20 hands on. He's only put money in for about 20% of his hands, there have been no PF raises, and this is his first cold-call of a raise. He may be calling for set value with a low or medium pair, or perhaps trying to slowplay a big pair. Or holding some other crap, who knows?

I've got TT, which is only a limping hand for me at a full table UTG. Given the size of the call ($2.18 to me) I briefly thought about dropping it here, as it's not clear that the stacks are deep enough to make set-value worth playing for. I decided it was close enough and called.

The flop comes with a ten -- very nice. I bet out to $6. The min raise from UTG+1 is very reassuring: I now put him on a big pair, AA--QQ. But then the next guy pushes. Hmm. I'm thinking it's either 44 for bottom set, JJ for top set, or perhaps a slowplayed AA or KK. [EDIT after Kaz's reply:] JT, or a very bold KQ semi-bluff are also possibilities that can't be ruled out.

What's my move? I know, I know, it's obvious. But put it this way: what further info would you need on MP3 before the possibility of JJ for top set loomed large enough to make you think about folding this hand? Or put it another way: how much deeper a game than Party's 50BB structure would it have to be before you could consider folding this?

Kaz The Original · #2 01-08-2005, 03:45 PM

I'd expect J10 more times than JJ here.

jtr · #3 01-08-2005, 03:51 PM

Fair point Kaz. I did think about 2 pair as a possible holding in the heat of the moment, and certainly it's a great holding for villain from my point of view. But upon reviewing the hand the tiny amount of data we have on villain suggests he is not the type to call a raise with JT... or certainly not with JTo anyway. Of course this is incredibly likely to be too small a sample to tell.

mr pink · #4 01-08-2005, 03:56 PM

if he's got JJ, then so be it. you cant fear set over set without an insanely good read. that being said, and your description of your opponent, theres no way you can get away from this. hope it worked out when the dust cleared.

peace - jeff

Sephus · #5 01-08-2005, 04:48 PM

i would not be the least bit nervous.

BigF · #6 01-08-2005, 04:53 PM

Come on we are talking about Party NL25, aren't we?

jtr · #7 01-08-2005, 09:40 PM

Thanks, guys, for the feedback.

I agree, I wasn't nervous at all, I was salivating. Of course I called the all-in without hesitation. I just wrote the post this way to see whether I had somehow gone mad and was missing something about the situation.

Results: Original raiser (UTG+1) turned out to have KK, and the CO guy had JJ for a better set. Funny thing was the turn and river came A and Q to give the KK guy a straight, so top set on the flop was no good either. No regrets at all, as a little bit of retrospective playing around with pokercalculator showed that even if I put the CO on either AA or JJ there was still plenty of equity for me.