22: 2-parter on the bubble

[IdiotVig]

Line check, flame away, dissect, etc...

Setup: In hand 1, bigstack has been pretty loose so far. Is the push bad? [Edit: Not within arm's reach of SNGPT right now.]

In hand 2, you've just won 3 consecutive hands (with mainly trash) in a row to 18-tuple up. In retrospect, I feel like BB would've called probably any two (at least top 60-70%). Is the push bad, especially considering the short stack on the button?


***** Hand History for Game 3162193458 *****
300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 18079788) - Wed Dec 07 20:48:56 EST 2005
Table Table 68315 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: nepKKa (1210)
Seat 3: notepros (2550)
Seat 4: IPityThaFoo (1650)
Seat 9: IdiotVig (2590)
nepKKa posts small blind (150)
notepros posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IdiotVig [ 6c, 6s ]
IPityThaFoo folds.
IdiotVig raises (2590) to 2590
IdiotVig is all-In.
nepKKa folds.
notepros calls (2250)
notepros is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $5250 with notepros
Creating Side Pot 1 with $40 with IdiotVig
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5d, As, Jh ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qs ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 5250 | Side Pot 1: 40
Board: [ 5d As Jh 5h Qs ]
nepKKa balance 1060, lost 150 (folded)
notepros balance 5250, bet 2550, collected 5250, net +2700 [ Ac Jc ] [ two pairs, aces and jacks -- Ac,As,Qs,Jc,Jh ]
IPityThaFoo balance 1650, didn't bet (folded)
IdiotVig balance 40, bet 2590, collected 40, lost -2550 [ 6c 6s ] [ two pairs, sixes and fives -- As,6c,6s,5d,5h ]


***** Hand History for Game 3162200159 *****
300/600 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 18079788) - Wed Dec 07 20:50:00 EST 2005
Table Table 68315 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: nepKKa (700)
Seat 3: notepros (5010)
Seat 4: IPityThaFoo (1570)
Seat 9: IdiotVig (720)
nepKKa posts small blind (150)
notepros posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IdiotVig [ 2d, 2c ]
IPityThaFoo folds.
IdiotVig raises (720) to 720
IdiotVig is all-In.
nepKKa folds.
notepros calls (420)
Creating Main Pot with $1590 with IdiotVig
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9h, 3s, 4s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ts ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 5h ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1590 |
Board: [ 9h 3s 4s Ts 5h ]
nepKKa balance 550, lost 150 (folded)
notepros balance 5880, bet 720, collected 1590, net +870 [ Jh Th ] [ a pair of tens -- Jh,Th,Ts,9h,5h ]
IPityThaFoo balance 1570, didn't bet (folded)
IdiotVig balance 0, lost 720 [ 2d 2c ] [ a pair of twos -- Ts,9h,5h,2d,2c ]

[IdiotVig]

bump

I think the first one is a bad push. You have the chip lead, and you're willing to risk it for a coinflip.

The second one you have to push. You have less than 3bb, and it's gamble time.
Shooby

[xLukex]

Based on your read in hand 1, it is +.5%EV to push in this situation (SB on tight, BB on loose). I put big blind on loose and not maniac because of the fact that so much of his stack is at stake.

Anyways, if he is any tighter this is a much easier push. I still do it.

Second hand is an easy, easy, easy push.

[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the first one is a bad push. You have the chip lead, and you're willing to risk it for a coinflip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, except that I believed (at the time) 22-55 and A2-A5 is definitely part of BB's calling range. I suppose that's the argument for the push. I really thought BB would be something like 22+, A2+, K9+, QT+. Maybe that's way too loose a range to put on someone. I dunno.

[ QUOTE ]
The second one you have to push. You have less than 3bb, and it's gamble time.
Shooby

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there's the matter of the other short stack, too. And if SB folds, we can each survive one more orbit, so I wonder if I don't do better waiting for a better spot.

You know how much I like reads...but, if the big stack is loose, I think you ought to fold hand one. There's not much reason for him to get involved in an all-or-nothing confrontation with you, but if you think he's going to call with some marginal holding, you should fold because you don't want to put the whole SNG outcome on a single coin flip. And, even the marginal hands he might call with will usually contain two overcards.

Another thing to consider is that if he has been aggressive up to this point, there's some reason to believe that you and he can effectively work together to sort of blind out the short stacks. (I don't mean collusion.)

This has sort of been a theme lately: we "know" big stack shouldn't call and get into a confrontation with the other big stack. But, if the big stacks are going to call a wider range than we think they should, we have to adjust our pushing ranges accordingly.